CNX-NIFTY
Open—23775.80—High—23854.50---Low---23653.60---Close-23750.20on 26.12.2024.
Support:23667.20/23664/23484.15/23350/23338.70/23263.15/23110.80/22794.70/22775.70/22525.65/22303.80/21875.25/21860.25/21821.05/21777.65/21710.20/21530.20/21281.45/21137.20/20976.80.
Resistance:23816.15/23873.35/23893.70/24073.90/24094.20/24099.70/24141.80/24354.55/24472.80/24498.20/24537.60/24694.35/24753.15/24792.3024854.80/24857.75/25078.30/25234.05/25285.55/25333.65/25445.70/25871.35/26277.35/26328/26995/27095/27212/27293/27381.
OVERALL VIEW
ON THE DAILY CHART:
--
It opened on a positive note and thereafter had both side
moves during the day and finally ended, the day with a gain of 22.55 points. Please note that the gap it created on 19.12.2024 is
still there and if it makes an effort to fill the gap in the next 1 trading
sessions, which is technically possible then it can come up to 24150,
but if it does not fill the gap in the stipulated time then chances of filling
the gap will recede for the time being, but it will fill the gap some day.
Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign
for a steady market.
The overall chart setup is weak. After yesterdays
breather it had a short up- move today and the up move may not be over as yet
and it is likely get over once is closes below 23727.65(figure may change),
therefore how it culminate has to be seen in the next few trading sessions, as
of now it seems that this up-move is a bull trap and may not last long and can
fizzle-out abruptly any moment. It is below almost all its recent important
& key support points on the chart and the long term uptrend is already
severely threatened, which is highly concerning, therefore further fall looks
inevitable in coming days. However moving down from here the forthcoming
support points could be at 23734---23692---23576----23537
and break & sustained close below this range may trigger fresh fall and
then the last ray of hope for the strong bounce back is in the range of 23350.40-----23263.15,
it can bounce back from any of these points, but break & sustained close
below this range may witness an accelerated fall and then it will find strong
support in the range of 22794.70----22768.40 and it is needless to
mention here that break & sustained close below this range can drag it down
to much lower levels, which may please be noted. The short & medium term
trend is down and the long term uptrend is severely threatened. The bias is
hugely negative as of now.
Similarly moving up the key resistance
points would be at 23873.35----23893.70---23974.50----24141---24212----24332---24462---24481.42(some
figure will change daily). Please note that if it moves above 23873.35
& 23893.70 and sustain on the closing basis then it will get a strong
foothold to move up, if it moves above 23974.50 and sustain on the
closing basis then it will give a ray of hope that the up move can extend and
if it moves above the range of 24212---24481.42 and sustain on the
closing basis then the long term uptrend threat will dissipate and it may
somewhat ensure that up-move can extend further for sure. But please note that
it may get good strength for the continuation of the up-move and may get into
strong up-momentum track only if it moves above 24625.43---24753.15 &
24857.75 (figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis.
HEAD & SHOULDER
PATTERN VISIBLE ON THE DAILY CHART:-
It is decisively below
its neckline which is placed at 23893.70 and if it sustain below it on the
closing basis then the maximum downside target could be in the range of
21850---21510. Please note that this pattern will be negated if it moves above
24857.75 & 25078.35. This is a very powerful pattern and rarely fails. It
is therefore suggested that do not remain short if it closes above the neckline
of 23893.70 and sustain, similarly do not remain long if it closes below
23893.70.
TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE
DAILY CHART;-
It has made higher bottom on the line chart
today , it is below all its short term moving average on the daily, weekly and
below few averages on the monthly chart also, it is below all its medium term
moving average on the daily chart and below few on the weekly chart and most
importantly it is almost below all its long term moving average on the daily
chart thereby severely threatening the long term uptrend which is a very
concerning. Furthermore all the important technical indicators are negative on the
daily chart and it has triggered the sell mode in the maximum indicators, slight
positive divergence is there and the other comforting thing is that it is in
oversold zone, therefore it may have a relief rally anytime but it is not
likely to sustain and may fail and it may resume the down move again until and
unless it closes above 23893.70 and
sustain. It is also important to mention
here that the price action is consistently weak for some time. Therefore in
view of the above further fall is very much on the card in the coming days. So
it is suggested to keep an eye on price action for further directional indication.
TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY &
MONTHLY CHART:-
On the weekly
chart almost all indicators are negative, sell mode is on in the maximum
indicators, there is huge negative divergence and it is in the overbought/
neutral zone. On the monthly chart it is in overbought zone and with huge
negative divergence. Therefore all together indicators on the weekly &
monthly chart as of now indicates that it is not yet out of woods and further
fall is very much on the horizon in coming weeks and months and the down move
is on. So keep a watch on the price action for further directional indication.
IT
IS SELL ON RISE MARKET NOW.;-
It has
slipped into deep correction mode today for its recent rise, therefore it is
sell on the rise market now till it closes above 23893.70
and sustain on the closing basis, but long trade can also be tried
on decline near critical support points for intraday gains.
STRENGTH: -
1. It is in the long-term uptrend, but it
has been severely threatened.
2. It is
far-far above its most critical points of 21821.05---21801.45---21777.65---21776.87---21731.40---21727.75
& 21710.20, which is must to keep the up momentum going in the year 2024.
Sustained break below this range may witness accelerated fall.
3. It is has short higher bottom
on the line chart today.
WEAKNESS: -.
1. Please note that almost all indicators
on the weekly chart are negative indicates oversold condition, sell mode is on
and negative divergence and finally on the monthly chart it indicates
overbought condition and negative divergence.
2. Volatility and wild swing can
be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market
condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming
days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
3. It is into correction deep mode
now as it closed below some of the correction threshold points of 26043.29----25917.64---25714.81----25098.32-----25064.27-----24625.43-----24521.63---
24481.42-----24047.39-----
(figures may change). The other
important correction threshold points are at 23659.18---21848.52 (figure may change) and if it sustain below these
points correction will deepen.
4. All the seven
important technical indicators are negative, maximum indicators on the sell
mode now, negative divergence is there but in oversold zone, so it may give a
relief rally any time and then may resume down move again.
5. The price action was weak today.
6. It is below its deep correction
threshold point of 24481.42 for its
recent rise.
7. It is below its strong pullback
threshold point of 23974.50(figure may
change).
8. It is below all its short term
moving averages on the daily chart and the important average range for the day
is between 24290----24192----24145----24130----24072----24009 (figure will change every day), sustained close below this range may
witness an accelerated fall.
9. It is below few long terms
moving average now 24461----24331----24211---23977---23855---23818and the other long term moving
average is ---23734---23692----23576, please note
that sustained close below these points will weaken it and will drag it down.
10. It is below its key point of 24140.85 & 24131.10 which is essential to keep the up-momentum going in the
month of December-2024.
TRADING CALL: --
1. Long
trade can be tried if it holds the range of 23692----23655 for some time
with a stop loss of 23570 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky
affair but can be tried near critical support points for intraday gains.
2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 23870—23900
with a stop loss of 23980 or can sell if it moves below23640 and
then below 23570 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 23745
and 23655. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for
intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If
it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating
long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near
the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type
of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable
profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested
in any case.
Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at
all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the
above view.
Kindly note that make your cost your
stop loss in favorable trade
and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated here are of spot
market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
Email--- suranank@gmail.com
