CNX-NIFTY
Open-26005.40--High-26250.90—Low---25998.40---Close-26216.05
on 26.9.2024.
Support:25847.35/25445/25333.65/25285.55/25078.30/24885.15/24854.80/24753.15/24461.05/24141.80/24099.70/24074.20/23893.70/23667.20/23664/23350/23338.20/23110.80/22794.70/22775.70/22526.60.
Resistance:26250.90/26273/26995/27212/27381.
OVERALL, VIEW:
--
It opened on a flat to positive note and thereafter
had both side moves during the day and in the process hit a new all-time high
of 26250.90 and finally ended the day with a gain of 211.90 points. It
is hitting new high every other day. It has been rising for the last six days
in a row and with rising day vulnerability for correction increases, so it
could correct any time soon, so be alert and watchful. The technical setup is extraordinarily
strong but volatility is a huge concern. It is making higher top & bottom on
the line & bar chart, above all short, medium and long term moving averages
on the daily weekly and monthly chart, which is a huge positive sign for the
continuation of the up move, except for the few technical indicators which are indicating
otherwise and volatility can spoil the party if price action weakens, so be
vigilant and watch the price action carefully, for the continuation of the up
move. Please note that if it holds the range of 26023.08----25897.43----25836---25744----25694.60
(figure may change) on the closing basis, then the up move can extend, close
below 26023.08 will push it into correction mode and thereafter close
below each point will deepen the correction, sustained close below the range of
25684----25570---- (figure may change) may trigger fresh fall and
finally sustained close below the range of 25471----25405----25377.55----25333.65-----25285.55----(figure
will change daily) may accelerate the down move.
It is important to mention here that it is
having see-saw movement quite often with huge volatility, which is not good
sign for a steady market, the overbought condition on the weekly and monthly
chart is still present but it neutralized on the daily chart a little while ago
but now again in overbought zone and most importantly negative divergence
appeared on the weekly chart is also
very concerning, therefore, despite the
recent robust rise some indication based
on few indicators on the daily, weekly & monthly chart is still pointing
that it could head down in coming days,
so keep an eye on the indicator change
and weak price action for any untoward
move on the downside. It is in the long term uptrend now.
Moving down from
here it may find good support at 26023.08----25897.43----25882----25836-----25768----25744----25694.60---25684-----25654----25570-----25513----25479-----25471----25405----25377.55----25333.65----25325------25285.55---25107-------25078.30-----25044.04----24753.15----24501.42-----24450----24365----24099.70-----24074.20----24027.18-----23893.70(few figures may change
Daily) it can bounce back from any of these points,
but close below 26023.08 will push it into short correction mode and thereafter
break and close below 25897.43---25694.60,
will deepen the correction, break and close below the range of 25684----25570
may trigger fresh fall, close below
the range of 25471----25405----25377.55----25333.65-----25285.55
may accelerate the fall and close
below 24753.15 may accelerate the fall further and thereafter break below each point will
weaken it further and finally break and close below 23893.70 may trigger
fresh big down move and if sustain below it then the correction could be more painful
price-wise and time-wise both.
It is
buy on decline market in general now, but both side trades can be tried
depending on the price action for intraday gains.
NOTE:-IF IT HOLDS THE RANGE OF 26023.08----25897.43----25836---25744----25694.60
(FIGURE MAY CHANGE) ON THE CLOSING BASIS THE UP
MOVE CAN EXTEND. IT IS IN THE LONG-TERM UPTREND.
STRENGTH: -
1. It is in
the long-term uptrend now.
2. It is
far-far above its most critical points of 21821.05---21801.45---21777.65---21776.87---21731.40---21727.75
& 21710.20, which is must to keep the up momentum going in the year 2024.
Sustained break below this range may witness accelerated fall.
3. Six out of seven important
technical indicators on the daily chart is positive.
4. It is out of correction mode.
The important correction threshold points are 26023.08----25897.43----25694.60----25078.11-----25044.07----24501.42---24027.18----23638.97---21828.31 (figure may change) close above the threshold points is a good sign
for the continuation of the up move, break below each points will deepen
correction.
5.
It is well above all its short-term moving averages on the daily chart and the
important range for the day is between 25836---25744----25684----25570----25471----25405(figure will change every day), if it sustains above this range then it is
a positive sign for the continuation of the up move.
6. It is making higher top &
bottom on the line & bar chart now.
7. It is in the new zone.
8.
The price action was positive today.
WEAKNESS: -.
1. One out of seven important
technical indicators on the daily chart, indicating overbought condition and
few indicators on the weekly chart also indication overbought condition and
negative divergence and finally monthly chart also indicates overbought
condition.
2. Some important technical
indicators are weak and overbought on the daily/weekly and monthly chart and
pointing that it could head down in the coming days/weeks and months.
3. Volatility and wild swing can
be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market
condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming
days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
TRADING CALL: --
1. Long trade can be tried on
decline near or within the range of 26153---26100
with a stop loss of 26000 or can be
tried if it moves above 26279 and
maintain for some time with a stop loss of 26200
for possible intraday gains, else avoid.
2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 26440--26470
with a stop loss of 26530 or can sell if it moves below 25990 with a stop loss of 26060. It could
be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If
it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating
long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near
the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type
of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable
profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested
in any case.
Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at
all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the
above view.
Kindly note that make your cost your
stop loss in favorable trade
and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated here are of spot
market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
Email--- suranank@gmail.com
