A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY—31.1.2024

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open-21775.75--High—21813.05—Low—21501.80--Close-21522.10 on 30.1.2024.

Support:21500.35/21492/ 21448.65/21337.75/21285.55/ 21037.90/20976.80/20769.50/20291.55/20222.45/19991.85/19875.25/19839/19635.30/19333.60/19329.10/19223.65/18973.30/18887.60/18837.85.

Resistance: 21593/21680/21727.75/21731.40/21763.95/21801.45/21834.35/21906/21931/21974/21982/ 22027/22073/22124/22220/22459/22478/22590/23082/23124/23587.

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

After yesterday robust gain it opened with a small up gap but filled the gap during the day and finally ended the day with a loss of 215.50 points. Please note that it is exhibiting huge volatility which is not good for a steady and smooth movement and may eventually drag it down lower. It is important to mention here that the gap filling threat for earlier gap on the daily & weekly chart has faded out but please note that eventually it will fill the gap someday, which please note.

Its most critical & important points are 21801.45---21731.40 & 21727.75 and to keep the up momentum going in the year 2024 it has to sustain above these points on the closing basis else it may head down. It closed above its two critical points of 21727.75 &21731.40 yesterday but could not sustain and slipped down today and closed way below it which speaks of its inherent weakness. Furthermore it is still into very short, short, deep short and medium term correction mode as it is below its threshold point of 21964.73---21853.38---21653.55----21804.45 & 21568.23 (figure may change) please note that break below 21348.58 & 20874.34(figure may change) will push it into long and deep long term correction mode and sustained break below 20222.45 could be an extreme alert point and then correction may further deepen and can last longer. It is into deep short term correction mode now but the long term uptrend is still intact as of now. It is important to mention here that its short & long pullback threshold points are at 21282 & 21370.12(figure may change) and it is still well above it despite today’s fall, therefore as long as it holds these points on the closing basis it may have a meaningful pullback up move and the hope of continuation of the up move will be alive, else it may head down again. 

It is very important to mention here that three out of five important technical indicators are negative now on the daily chart and indicates that it could drag it down to much lower levels in coming days, furthermore one most important indicator on the weekly & monthly chart is also negative and it is into medium term corrective mode. The volatility is disturbing the chart setup quite often which is bad sign. Furthermore it fell below its short and medium term moving averages on the daily chart again today but the price action is still o.k.Please note that overall it is not painting a sound picture for the continuation of the up move as of now. However the hope of up move is still alive as long as it hold range of 21370.12---21282 on the closing basis. 

Moving up from here it may face strong resistance at 21593---21630---21727.75----21731.40----21747.16----21801.45---21834.45---21891.23---21926.76---22124.15---22220----22459---22478(figure may change) and it can correct at any of these points and then may resume the up move again or it may exhaust the up move at any of these points also and may head down. But please note that if it moves above 21926.76 and sustain on the closing basis then it could retest its all-time high of 22124.15 or may go beyond it also. 

Similarly moving down from here its important support points could be at 21516---21448---21370.12---21282---21248---21206---21137.20----21089---21040----20976.80----20946.35---20868.78---20769.50---20668----20324----20240(figures may change), please note that it can bounce back from any of these points and may resume the up move again but break sustained break below 20976.80 & 20769.50 may accelerate the fall. 

IMPORTANT NOTE: -- IT DECIESIVELY FELL BELOW ITS TWO CRITICAL POINTS OF 21731.40 & 21727.75 TODAY BUT WELL ABOVE THE PULLBACK THRESHOLD POINTS OF 21282 & 21370.12. PLEASE NOTE THAT IF IT REMAINS ABOVE THESE POINTS IT COULD STILL IT COULD STILL HAVE AN UP MOVE.  

TRADING TIPS:--

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 21370----21350 with a stop loss of 21270.  Please note that long trade in corrective mode could be a risky affair but can be tried at extreme critical support points with strict stop loss for pullback gains.

2. It is in the long term uptrend therefore short trade in general could be a highly risky affair, but it is into medium term corrective mode, therefore short trade can also be attempted on reasonable rise or on price breakdown for intraday corrective gains but with extreme caution and alert. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 21780--- 21810 with a stop loss of 21860. It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com

         

   

A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—31.1.2024

 

 

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 CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open—45481.50--High—45678.70--Low—45206.05---Close—45367.75 on 30.1.2024.

Support: 45281/45239/45118.05/44710.55/44949.90/44547.80/44429/44279.40/44151.80/43830.75/43796.75/43600.35/43345.95/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40.

Resistance: .45622/45655.50/46310.10/46369.50/46507.15/46580.30/46886.90/46919.70/47010.80/47411.65/47481.35/47588/48166.15/48203.45/48219.95/48292.25/48381.95 48636.45/48722/48925/49024/49567.60/49696/49857/50324/50633.60/50850.

(Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened on a positive note and had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day with a loss of 74.60 points. Please note that it is exhibiting huge volatility which is not good for a steady and smooth movement and may eventually drag it down lower.

It is important to mention here that its critical & important points are 48203.45---48292.25 & 48636.45and to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2024 it has to sustain above these points on the closing basis else it may head down.  It is way below all the three critical points, it is decisively below all  the important correction threshold points for its recent months rise and most critical points  48231.30---48133.94---47999.87---47447.93---47387.89---47360.75---47095.12----46369.50----46270.95(figures may change), which is a hugely negative sign and indicates further fall may be  ahead. Please note that break below 44746.91(figure may change) will push it into deep medium term correction mode for its earlier rise. It is into long term correction mode now for its recent months rise, and most importantly long term uptrend is also threatened as it below its long term moving average upper band of the range which is at 45538(figure will change every day) and this is highly concerning and if it breaks the lower band of the range which is at 44344(figure will change every day) then the long term uptrend will be in potential danger. It is important to mention here that its short and long pullback threshold points are at 44937 & 45421.96(figure may change) it is still above its short pullback threshold point of 44937, but it can give a meaningful up move and the hope of continuation of the up move will only be alive once it closes above 45421.96 and sustain on the closing basis, else it may head down.

It is very important to mention here that all the five important technical indicators are negative now on the daily chart and indicates that it could drag it down to much lower levels in the coming days, furthermore three most important indicators on the weekly & one monthly chart is also negative and it is into long term corrective mode. The chart setup is still weak  it still has lower top & bottom on the bar chart but crossed recent top on the line chart,  below all its short term moving averages on the daily and weekly chart, below some medium term moving averages and most importantly below some long term moving averages also, so all together it is giving weak indication and chances of moving down looks pretty bright. The only ray of hope for an up move  now is that it is still above its short pullback threshold point of 44937(figure may change)  In view of the above observation it is suggested to adopt sell on the rise strategy or sell on the price breakdown till visible sign of correction completion emerges. However long trade can also be tried at the most critical support points with strict short stop losses for pullback gains, but it could be a risky affair mind you. 

Moving down from here its important support points could be at 45343.83---45251---44949.50---44937---44746.91---44607----44506---44404----44312---44279.40---43830.25---43796.75---43600.35(figures may change), please note that it can bounce back from any of these points and may resume the up move again, else may keep moving down. 

Similarly moving up it may face strong resistance at 45421.96---45505---45759---45910----46072----46150----46367---46533----46825---47029----47391---47530----47644----47795---48203.45---48219.95---48231.30----48252.80---48292.25---48305.40---48381.95----48636.45(figure may change) and it can correct at any of these points and then may resume the up move again or it may exhaust the up move at any of these points also and may head down. 

IMPORTANT NOTE: -- PLEASE NOTE THAT IF IT MOVES ABOVE 45421.96 & 45531(FIGURE MAY CHANGE) AND SUSTAINS ON THE CLOSING BASIS THEN IT MAY GIVE A MEANINGFUL PULLBACK UP MOVE, ELSE IT MAY HEAD DOWN. 

TRADING TIPS:--

1. Safe traders can try long trade on decline near or within the range of 45000---44900 with a stop loss of 44730 or it moves above 45485 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 45300. But aggressive traders can also try long trade on sharp decline near or within the range of 44400---44350 with a stop loss of 44200.for a possible pullback gain. Please note that long trade in corrective mode could be a risky affair but can be tried at extreme critical support points with strict stop loss for pullback gains.

2. It is into long deep corrective mode and long term uptrend is also threatened, therefore short trade can also be attempted on reasonable rise or on price breakdown for intraday corrective gains but with caution and alert. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 45775---45850 with a stop loss of 45950. It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday corrective gains

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favourable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

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