CNX-NIFTY
Open—22508.65—High—22633.80---Low---22464.75--Close---22552.50 on 7.3.2025.
Support:22525.65/22303.80/22281/22165/22124.70/22104.85/21964.60/21875.25/
21860.65/21821.05/21777.65/21710.20/21530.20/21448.65/21281.45/
21137.20/21021.88/20976.80/20769.50/20291.50/20222.45/19991.85/19839/19333.60.
Resistance:22625.30/22633.80/22768.40/22775.70/22786.90/22794.70/22976.85/
23047.25/23049.95/23110.80/23263.15/23338.70/23391.65/23426.30/23484.15/
23537/23637.65/23644.80/23664/23667.20/23816.15/23873.35/23893.70/23938.85/
24073.90/24094.20/24099.70/24141.80/24354.55/24472.80/24498.20/24537.60/
24694.35/24753.15/24792.3024854.80/24857.75/25078.30/25234.05/25285.55/
25333.65/25445.70/25871.35/26277.35/26328/26995/27095/27212/27293/27381.
OVERALL VIEW ON THE
DAILY CHART: --
It opened on a negative note and thereafter it had both side
moves during the day and finally ended the day with a small gain of 7.80
points. It has filled the gap it created on 28.2.2025, on 6.3.2025, the gap point was 22508.40, but the gap it created on
24.2.2025 is still there and it
will the gap some for sure and the gap point is 22720.30. Please
note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a
steady market.
The technical setup has improved a bit now as it is above
its short pullback threshold point of 22400,which
has given a ray of hope that the on-going up-move may extend but most
importantly it is decisively above its most critical points of 22104.85-22124.70—22165---22194.55 &
22281 and if it sustains above these points then the up-move can extend in
the month of March—2025, else it may
start to drift down again. Moving down its important support points could be at
21964.60---21821---21777.65---21710---21530---21281---21137—21021.88,
it can bounce back from any of these points, but break below each points will
weaken it further. It is important to mention here that if it breaks &
sustains below the aforesaid support range on the closing basis for a longer
time period then it is definitely likely to come down to 21281---21137—21021.88 levels or lower, please note that if it
moves below 21021.88 and sustain on
the closing basis then it will get into confirm bear market territory and most
importantly if it stays longer below it then it may witness extreme pain
price-wise & time-wise both. It is important to mention here that as of now
it is also weak on the weekly & monthly chart and its technical parameters
therefore it is not yet out of woods for
the long term and may witness moderate to sharp fall in coming weeks &
months, but it has to reviewed at regular interval for any potential
positive/negative change. The short and medium-term trend is down and the
long-term uptrend is severely threatened and in jeopardy now.
It is important to mention here that the major long term
trend line which was drawn from the bottom of 7511.10 made on 24.3.2020
is decisively broken after almost five years, which is a very weak sign and if
it does not bounce back above it in a shortest possible time, then it may
witness an accelerated fall. Please note that the trend line is placed for the
month of March-2025 at 23150
Moving up the other key resistance points would be at 22648---22795----22983---23355---23489----23637.65----23644.80------23893.70----23947-----24069----24041----24200(some
figures may change daily). Please note that, if it moves above 22648 & 22795( it is a medium
pullback threshold point & a key resistance point) and sustain on the
closing basis then it may give good hope to move up further, if it moves above 22983
which is a long pullback threshold
point then it will enhance the chances of a continued up-move, if it moves
above 23355 and sustain on the closing basis then it will strengthen
further but to keep the hope of strong up move alive in the 2025 it has
to move above 23637.65----23644.80 and sustain on the
closing basis, else it may start to drift down, if it move above 23893.70
and sustain on the closing basis then it will get a good foothold to build the
strong up-move and then the up move is likely to extend further for sure and if
it moves above the range of 24069----24041----24200
and sustain on the closing basis then the long term uptrend threat will
dissipate and it may somewhat ensure that up-move can extend further for sure. But
to get good strength for the continuation of the up-move and to get into strong
up-momentum track it has to move above 24481.42---24625.43---24753.15---24857.75
& 25078.30 (figure may change) particularly above 24753.15 and
sustain on the closing basis.
HEAD & SHOULDER PATTERN
VISIBLE ON THE DAILY CHART:-It is still
below its neckline which is placed at
23893.70 and if it sustain below it on the closing basis then the maximum
downside target could be in the range of 21850---21510. Please note that this
pattern will be partly negated if it moves above 23893.70 and sustain and it will
be fully negated if it moves above 24857.75 & 25078.35. This is a very powerful
pattern and rarely fails. It is therefore suggested that do not remain short if
it closes above the neckline of 23893.70 and sustain, similarly do not remain
long if it closes below it.
TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-
It still has lower top & bottom on the line & bar chart,
but it has moved above few short term moving averages on the daily chart ,but
still below few short term moving averages on the daily, all below weekly &
almost all below monthly chart, it is below all its medium term moving average
on the daily chart & below few averages on the weekly chart too and most
importantly it is below all its long term moving average on the daily chart,
which is a severe threat to the long term uptrend and is highly concerning and
jeopardized the long term uptrend for now. But four out of seven important
technical indicators are positive now and some in buy mode and with strong
positive divergence, and three indicators are negative some in the sell mode
and into the overbought zone. Therefore,
broadly it is emitting mixed signal now and it can surprise on both the sides
in coming times. So, Please keep an eye on the critical points and price action
for further directional indication.
TECHNICAL
INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-
On the
weekly chart almost all indicators are negative, sell mode is on in the maximum
indicators, there is huge negative divergence but it is in the oversold zone
and may stage a recovery but that may not last. On the monthly chart with huge
negative divergence and MACD in the sell mode but it is in the oversold zone. Therefore,
all together indicators on the weekly & monthly chart as of now indicates
that it is not yet out of woods and further fall is very much on the horizon in
coming weeks and months and the down move is on. So, keep a watch on the price
action for further directional indication.
IT IS BUY ON
DECLINE MARKET AS OF NOW;-
It is into deep
correction mode for its earlier & recent rise, but it is above its short
pullback threshold point therefore it is buy on decline market now in general till it holds 22400 on the closing basis , but short trade can
also be tried after a reasonable rise and near critical resistance points with strict stop loss , for intraday corrective
gains.
STRENGTH: -
1. Four out of seven technical indicators
are positive with buy mode and good positive divergence.
2. It is above
its short pullback threshold point of 22400 (figure may change), sustained close above this point can help
it to extend the up-move.
3. The
price action was positive today.
WEAKNESS: -.
1. Please note that almost all indicators on
the weekly chart are negative indicates oversold condition, sell mode is on and
negative divergence and finally on the monthly chart it indicates oversold
condition, negative divergence and MACD in sell mode.
2. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in
the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition
and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks
and months. So be watchful.
3. It is into correction deep mode now as it
closed below some of the correction threshold points of 26043.29----25917.64---25714.81----25098.32-----25064.27-----24625.43-----24521.63---
24481.42-----24047.39----23669.17---23566.49 (figures may change). The other important correction threshold point is 21848.52
(figure may change) and if it sustain
below these points correction will deepen.
4. Three
out of seven technical
indicators are negative on the daily chart with sell mode and in the overbought zone.
5. It is below all its long-term moving
averages on the daily chart therefore severely threatened the uptrend.
6. It is below its medium & long
pullback threshold point of 22648---22983
(figure may change), sustained close
below these points can weaken the chances of an up-move and it starts to moves
down.
7. It is below its most critical points of 23644.80 & 23637.65; please note that it must stay above these points to keep up the up
momentum going in the year 2025.
8 It is above half of its short-term moving
averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for day is
between 22749----22689----22558----22489---22420---22377(figure will change every day), sustained close below this range may accelerate the down move.
9. It still has lower top & bottom on the
line & bar chart.
TRADING CALL: --
1. Long trade can be tried on decline
near or within the range 22500---22440
with a stop loss of 22370 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a
corrective market could be a risky affair but can be tried near critical
support points for intraday gains.
2. Short trade
can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 22700----22725 with
a stop loss of 22780. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for
intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then
wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can
be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa .
Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off
during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day
squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.
Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of
the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the
trade you enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the
price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and
resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO
NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated here are of spot market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
Email--- suranank@gmail.com
