CNX-BANK NIFTY
Open—49259.65---High—49674.80---Low—49031.80---Close—49587.20 on 31.1.2025.
Support:49459/49057.40/48636.45/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/48074.05/47898.35/47363.40/46983.75/46077.85/45828.80/45661.75/44633.85/44429/43600.25/43345.45/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40.
Resistance:49654.65/49688.80//49787.10/49904.40/49974.75/50194.30/50369.40/50382.10/50438.30/50841.90/50860.20/50947.70/51000.90/51133.20/51138.90/51693.50/51749.45/51749.45/52354.85/52493.95/52577.50/52760.20/52782.75/52794.95/53357.70/53531.30/53792.85/53888.30/54247.70/54467.35/54593/54604/54772/54815/54924/55097/55209/55444/55646/55740/55827/56135/56255.
OVERALL,
VIEW: --
It opened on a negative note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day with a loss/gain of 275.25 points. The gap it created 28.1.2025 is still there and if it makes an effort to fill the gap in the next 1—2 trading sessions, which is technically possible then it can come down to 48319, but if it does not fill the gap in the stipulated time then chances of filling the gap will recede for the time being, but it will fill the gap some day. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.
It is already into the deep corrective mode and the overall technical
setup is very weak and most importantly its long term uptrend is jeopardized as
it is below its long term moving averages, therefore further fall is very much
on the cards in coming times. But the good thing is that its short term
parameters have improved a bit on the daily chart as it is above its medium
& long term pullback threshold points and above all its short term moving
averages also, therefore if it holds the range of 49408---49243(figures may change every day) on the closing
basis then the on-going up-move is likely to extend further and if it moves
above 49655 and sustain on the
closing basis then it may extend the up move sharply. Please note that even if
it breaks the aforesaid range and moves down but hold the range of 49036---48860 it can still resume the
up-move. But break & sustained close below this range will weaken it and it
may resume the down move again and then moving down its most important &
critical support points could be at 47898.35---47844.15 & 47756. Please note that break &
sustained close below these points and particularly below 47756 can drag it down to the range of 46437---46077 and sustained close below this range can drag it down
to 44500 levels or lower. The short-term bias seems up now, but
medium-term trend is down and the long-term uptrend is severely threatened and
in jeopardy now. The overall bias is negative as of now.
Similarly moving up the key resistance points would be at 49654.65---49915---50226---50501---50563---50830----50841.90---50860.20----51137---51172-----51490(some
figure will change daily). Please note that, if it moves above 49654.65 and
sustain on the closing basis then it will gain a good foothold and chances of
extending the up-move will enhance , if it moves above 50841.90 & 50860.20 and sustain on the closing basis then it
will keep the hope alive for the up move to continue in the year 2025
and if it moves above the range of 51137---51172-----51490
and sustain on the closing basis then the long term uptrend threat will
dissipate and then it is likely to extend the up-move for sure. But please note
that it may get good strength for the continuation of the up-move if it moves
above 52679.47 & 52920.42 (figure may
change daily) and sustain on the closing basis and finally to get back into
the strong up-momentum track again it has to move above 53142.71----53331.55----53370.43----53500.30(figure may change) and
sustain on the closing basis. Please note that if it moves above 53142.71
and sustain on the closing basis then it could retest its all-time high of 54467.35
or may go beyond it also.
TECHNICAL INDICATORS
PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-
It crossed its recent
top on the line chart and above all the
short term moving average on the daily chart, which is a positive sign for the continuation of the up move , but it is still below all its
short term moving average on the weekly & below few on the monthly chart
also, it is below all its medium term moving average on the daily chart &
below few averages on the weekly chart too and most importantly it is below all its long term moving average on the daily
chart, which is a severe threat to the long term uptrend and it is highly concerning and jeopardized the long term
uptrend. But five out of seven important
technical indicators have turned positive and triggered buy signal in four
indicators and positive divergence in
one, but inching towards overbought zone, therefore, it can extend up-move if
it hold the range of 49408---49243 (range will change every day) may be with-in-between down move. Please keep an eye on the price action for
further directional indication.
TECHNICAL
INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART: -
On the weekly chart almost all the indicators are negative now, it is in the sell signal in maximum indicators, and negative divergence is there but in the oversold zone. On the monthly chart it is in overbought zone and with huge negative divergence and with MACD in the sell mode. Therefore, all together indicators on the weekly & monthly chart as of now indicates that it is not yet out of woods and further fall is very much on the horizon in coming weeks and months and down move is on. So keep a watch on the price action for further directional indication.
IT IS BUY ON DECLINE MARKET AS OF NOW;-
It is into deep correction mode for its earlier & recent rise, but pullback mode is on therefore buy on decline can be tried at appropriate support point with strict stop loss , similarly short trade can also be tried after reasonable rise at appropriate resistance points with strict stop losses for intraday corrective gains. For safe traders long trade can only be tried if it closes above 49655 and sustains, else avoid.
STRENGTH: -
1. Five out
of seven technical indicators are positive on the daily chart with buy signal
in four & positive divergence.
2. It is
above its very short, short, medium & long term pullback threshold point of
48271--- 48748---49271 & 49408(figure may change), sustained close
below these points will help it to extend the up-move.
3 It is
above all its short-term moving averages
now on the daily chart and the important average range for day is between 49318---49036---49006---48951-----48895---48859(figure will change every day), sustained close above this range can help it to move-up further.
4. It has
crossed its recent top on the line chart.
5. The price action was positive today.
WEAKNESS: -
1. Volatility
and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign
for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically
in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
2. Please
note that indicators, on the weekly chart it is in the sell mode in maximum indicators,
in overbought zone and with huge negative divergence & on the monthly chart,
indicating overbought condition and with huge negative divergence and triggered
sell mode also.
3. It is
below few of its corrective threshold points of 53500.30-----53370.43---53331.55----52920.42---52487.43---52098.30------51549.93-----50725.73---- (figure may change) and
if it sustains below these points then it may extend the down move. The other
important key correction threshold points are 49201.72--- 45416.49 (figure may change)
4. Two out
of seven technical indicators are negative on the daily chart with sell signal
and inching towards overbought zone.
5. The long-term
uptrend is in jeopardy as it is below all its long-term moving averages.
6. Its below
its most critical points of 50860.20 & 50841.90; please note that it
must stay above these points to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2025,
else it will drift down sharply.
7. It has
broken its crucial bottom of 49654.65.
TRADING CALL: --
1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 49408---49243 with a stop loss of 49000 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in
a corrective market could be a risky bet but can be tried at critical support
point with strict stop loss for intraday gain.
2. Short
trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 50150—50230 with
a stop loss of 50400 .It could be a risky trade but can be tried for
intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up
with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long
position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the
selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of
trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit
margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any
case.
Disclaimer:-The view
expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any
way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that
make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and
then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated
here are of spot market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Email—suranank@gmail.com
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
