CNX-BANK NIFTY
Open—50648.20--High—50945.55--Low—50599.80--Close—50860.20 on 31.12.2024.
Support:50438.30/50382.10/50369.40/50194.30/49974.75/49904.40/49787.10/49688.80/49654.65/49057.40/48636.45/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/47363.40/46983.75/46077.85/45828.80/45661.75/44633.85/44429/43600.25/43345.45/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40.
Resistance:50865.45/50947.70/51000.90/51133.20/51138.90/51693.50/51749.45/51749.45/52354.85/52493.95/52577.50/52760.20/52782.75/52794.95/53357.70/53531.30/53792.85/53888.30/54247.70/54467.35/54593/54604/54772/54815/54924/55097/55209/55444/55646/55740/55827/56135/56255.
OVERALL,
VIEW: --
It opened on a negative note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally, ended the day with a loss of 92.55 points. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.
The overall chart setup is weak. The on-going up move has
given signal that it is likely to end as it is below its recent bottom of 51170.70 on the line chart but it will
give confirmation of the end of up-move once it closes below 50759.20, therefore how this rally finally
culminate has to be seen in the next few trading sessions. Please note that it is
below almost all its recent important & key support points on the daily chart
and the long term uptrend is also threatened, which is concerning therefore
further fall looks inevitable in coming days. However moving down from here the
forthcoming important support points could be at 50804----50759.20----50607.34----50612----50475----50432----50291-----50167(some
figure may change daily) and then the last key support range is between 49787.10-----49654.65. Please note that
it can bounce back from any of these points, but break & sustained close
below 50607.34 can drag it down to 49790 or lower and thereafter break
& sustained close below each point will weaken it further, break &
sustained close below 50167 will jeopardize
the long term uptrend and finally break & sustained close below 49654.65 may witness an accelerated
fall. The short & medium term trend is down and the long term uptrend is
also threatened. The bias is negative as of now.
Similarly moving up the key resistance points would be at 50891.64-----50939----51155----51383.19---51471----51810----52132.82(some
figure will change daily). Please note that if it moves above 50891.64 and sustain on the closing
basis then there will be a ray of hope that the up-move can extend, if it moves
above the range of 50939---51155----51383.19---51471---51810
and sustain on the closing basis then the long term uptrend threat will
dissipate and it can extend the up-move. But please note that it may get good
strength for the continuation of the up-move if it moves above 51948---52400-----52563 & 52920.42 (figure may change daily) and sustain on the closing basis
and finally to get back into the strong up-momentum track again it has to move
above 53370.43---53531.30---53644.50
& 53888.30 and sustain on the closing basis.
TECHNICAL INDICATORS
PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-
It has made lower top & bottom on the line chart again,
it is below all its short term moving average on the daily & weekly and
below few averages on the monthly chart too, it is below all its medium term
moving average on the daily chart and below few on the weekly chart also and
most importantly it is below few long term moving average also on the daily
chart, which is threatening the long term uptrend and this is concerning.
Furthermore all the important technical
indicators are negative on the daily chart and triggered sell mode in the maximum indicators and
negative divergence is there, but the comforting thing is that it is in
oversold zone, therefore it may have a relief rally anytime but it is not
likely to sustain and may fail and then it may resume the down move again. It is also important to mention here that the
price action is consistently weak for some time. Therefore in view of the above
further fall is very much on the card in the coming days. So it is suggested to
keep an eye on price action for further directional indication.
TECHNICAL
INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-
On the weekly chart almost all the indicators are negative now, it has triggered sell signal in maximum indicators, and negative divergence is there and in overbought zone also. On the monthly chart it is in overbought zone and with huge negative divergence and maximum indicators are in the sell mode. Therefore all together indicators on the weekly & monthly chart as of now indicates that it is not yet out of woods and further fall is very much on the horizon in coming weeks and months and down move is on. So keep a watch on the price action for further directional indication.
IT IS SELL ON RISE MARKET NOW;-
It has slipped into deep correction mode today for its recent rise, therefore it is sell on the rise market now till it closes at least above 51810(figure will change daily) and sustain, but long trade can also be tried on decline near the critical support points for intraday gains.
STRENGTH: -
1. It is in
the long-term uptrend, but it is threatened
today.
2. It is well
above its most critical points of 48203.45---48292.25 & 48636.45, please note that it must stay above all these
points to keep up the strong up momentum going in the year 2024.
WEAKNESS: -
1. Volatility
and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign
for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically
in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
2. Please
note that indicators, on the weekly chart it is in the sell mode in maximum indicators,
in overbought zone and with huge negative divergence & on the monthly chart,
indicating overbought condition and with huge negative divergence and triggered
sell mode also.
3. It is
below few of its corrective threshold points of 53500.30-----53370.43---53331.55----52920.42---52487.43---52098.30------51549.93---- (figure may change) and
if it sustain below these points then it may extend the down move. The other
important key correction threshold points are 50725.73----
49201.72---45416.49 (figure may change)
4 It is
below all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the
important average range for day is between 52400----51888----51830-----51470-----51416---51352(figure will change every day), sustained close below this range can witness an accelerated down move.
5. The price action was negative today.
6. All the
seven technical indicators are negative on the daily chart with sell signal,
distinct negative divergence, but in the oversold zone.
7 It is
below its short pullback threshold point of 51383.19(figure may change), sustained
close below this point will keep the down move on.
8. It is
below few long terms moving average now 51810----51471----51155---50939----
and the other long term moving average are 50804-----50612-----50475----50291
& 50167, please note that sustained close below these points
will weaken it and will drag it down.
9. It has
made lower top & bottom on the line chart today.
10 It is below
its long pullback threshold point of 50891.64(figure may change), sustained
close below this point will lose hope for moving up.
TRADING CALL: --
1. Long trade can be tried on
decline near or within the range of 50780----50760 if it hold this range
for some time , then with a stop
loss of 50580 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please
note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky bet but can be
tried at critical support point with strict stop loss for intraday gain.
2. Short
trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 51170--51250 with
a stop loss of 51400 or can sell
if it moves below 50580 and
maintain for some time with a stop loss of 50870.It could be a risky
trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up
with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long
position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the
selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of
trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit
margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any
case.
Disclaimer:-The view
expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any
way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that
make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and
then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated
here are of spot market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Email—suranank@gmail.com
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
