CNX-BANK NIFTY
Open—52775--High—53387.10--Low—52685.15--Close—53266.90 on 4.12.2024.
Support:53180.75/52794.95/52782.75/52760.20/52577.50/52493.95/52354.85/51996.65/51750.10/51138.90/51133.20/51000.90/50947.70/50865.45/50438.30/50382.10/50369.40/50194.30/49974.75/49904.40/49787.10/49688.80/49654.65/49057.40/48636.45/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/47363.40/46983.75/46077.85/45828.80/45661.75/44633.85/44429/43600.25/43345.45/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40.
Resistance:53357.70/53792.85/54247.70/54467.35/54593/54604/54772/54815/54924/55097/55209/55444/55646/55740/55827/56135/56255.
OVERALL,
VIEW: --
It opened on a positive note and thereafter had both side moves
during the day and finally ended the day with a robust gain of 571.15 points.
The stipulated time to fill the gap it created on 25.11.2024 is over therefore the chances of filling the gap has
receded for now but some day it fill the gap for sure(gap point is 51271), which may please be noted.
It is showing good strength for continuing the on-going
up-move and if it hold the points of 52987.52
& 52537.50 then the up-rally can extend further and in the worst case
scenario if it holds the point 51452
& 50891.64 (some figure may
change), even then the chances of up-move will be alive, but break &
sustained close below 52987.52 & 52537.50 will push it into short & deep corrective
mode respectively again for its recent rise, break & sustained close
below 51452 will threaten the long term uptrend again, break
& sustained close below 50891.64 (figure may change)
may end the possibility of continuing the up move for good for a while.
The overall chart setup has drastically improved, it is above
all its short, medium and long term moving averages on the daily, weekly &
monthly chart which is a hugely positive sign for the continuation of the
up-move and if it sustain above it then the up-move is surely going to extend.
Furthermore almost all the important technical
indicators are positive now on the daily chart and indicate that it is in the buy
mode. The only concerning thing is that it is in the overbought zone, so it may
correct any time soon and then may resume the up-move again. So all together indicators are giving positive signal
as of now therefore and it is likely to move-up in coming days provided it holds the key points as stated in
the above paragraph. The long term uptrend is intact as of now.
The bias is bullish as of now.
POSSIBLE MOVE ON THE
UPSIDE:-
Please note that if it holds the these points 52987.52 & 52537.50 (
figures may change) the
up-move is likely to extend further, but to get strong strength for the
continuation of the up-move it has to move above the range of 53331.55-----53357.70----53363----53500.30(figure
may change) and sustain on the closing basis and it will get into the strong
up momentum track if it moves above 53531.30
& 53636.71(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis and then
it could retest its all-time high of 54467.35
or can go beyond it also.
POSSIBLE MOVE ON THE DOWNSIDE:-
Moving down from here it may find broad support at (for other support points see the table on
the upside) 52987.52----52578----52537.50----52494----52443----52355---52241-----52163-----52087.65----52055.60----51959---51849-----51801------51708-----51626----51452---51122----51052----50891.64----50798------50730----50617------50440----50434------50119------49804---49790-------49654.65----49201.72-----48636.45---48292.25---48203.45---47756(figures
may change),
it can bounce back from any of these points, but break & sustained close
below 52987.52 will push it into
short corrective mode for its recent rise,, break & sustained close below 52537.50 will push it into deep corrective
mode for its recent rise and thereafter break
& sustained close below each point will weaken it, break & sustained
close below 51452 will threaten the
long term uptrend, break & sustained close below 50891.64 may end the possibility of the up move for a while, break
& sustained close below 50730
may trigger fresh fall and thereafter break & close below each point will
weaken it further, but the range of 50119----49790----49654
is the last very strong bounce back support range, if it break & sustain
below this range on the closing basis, then it may have an accelerated fall. Please
note that sustained close below 49790 may potentially end the long term uptrend
for the time being and finally if it break the range of 48636.45---48292.25---48203.45---47756
and sustains on the closing basis then the correction could be more painful
price-wise & time-wise both, which may please be noted.
TECHNICAL
INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-
On the weekly chart almost all indicators are negative ,sell mode is on , there is huge negative divergence but the only comforting thing is that it is in oversold zone, so today’s up-move can extend a bit, so watch out. On the monthly chart it is in overbought zone and with huge negative divergence. Therefore all together indicators on the weekly & monthly chart as of now indicates that it is not yet out of woods and further fall is very much on the horizon in coming weeks and months. So keep a watch on the price action for further directional indication. The undertone is still bearish as of now.
IT IS BOTH SIDE TRADEABLE MARKET NOW.;-
Both side trades can
be attempted depending on the price action for intraday gains. But since it is showing
good strength in the chart setup therefore preferably long trade can be tried on
decline till it hold key levels as mentioned above.
STRENGTH: -
1. It is in
the long-term uptrend.
2. It is well
above its most critical points of 48203.45---48292.25 & 48636.45, please note that it must stay above all these
points to keep up the strong up momentum going in the year 2024.
3 It is well
above its strong pullback threshold point of 50891.64(figure may change), sustained
close above this point will help in extending the up-move.
4. All the
important technical indicators are positive on the daily chart with buy signal,
but in overbought zone as of now.
5. The price action was positive today.
6 It is
above all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the
important average range for day is between 52348----52163----52024-----51849-----51801----51626----51052-----50730(figure will change every day), sustained close above this range can help it
extend the up-move.
7. It has made higher top on the line & bar chart both.
WEAKNESS: -
1. Volatility
and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign
for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically
in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
2. Please
note that indicators, on the weekly chart is oversold (so it may rally a bit),
but in sell mode and with huge negative divergence & monthly chart,
indicating overbought condition and huge negative divergence.
3. It is
into deep correction mode as it is below some of the correction threshold
points of 53636.71-----53500.30---53331.55---- (figures may change). The other important correction threshold points are at 52987.52-----52537.50----52487.43--- 52098.30-----52015.06----51549.93---- 51492.11 ---- 50725.73---- 49201.72---45416.49 (figure may change) and if it sustain below these points correction
will deepen.
TRADING CALL: --
1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 53090----52990 with
a stop loss of 52700 or can buy if
it moves above 53360 and maintain
for some with a stop loss of 53070 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid.
2. Short
trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 53640---53700 with
a stop loss of 53850. It could be a risky trade but can be tried
for intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up
with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long
position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the
selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of
trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit
margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any
case.
Disclaimer:-The view
expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any
way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that
make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and
then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated
here are of spot market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Email—suranank@gmail.com
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
