CNX-BANK NIFTY
Open—51988.70--High—52220--Low—51733--Close—51807.50 on 30.10.2024.
Support:51750.10/51138.90/51133.20/51000.90/50947.70/50369.40/50194.30/49974.75/49654.65/49530.45/49057.40/48636.45/48313.60/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/47435.75/46983.75/46579/46077.85.
Resistance:51996.65/52199.45/52340.25/52577.50/52782.75/52794.95/53357.70/53741.40/54467.35/54593/54604/54772/54815/54924/55097/55209/55444/55646/55827/56135/56218.
OVERALL,
VIEW: --
It opened on a negative note and thereafter had both side
moves during the day and finally ended the day with a loss of 513.20 points.
The overall chart setup is still weak, it is still into the deep correction mode for its earlier
rise and it slipped again into corrective mode
for its recent rise today as it closed below its threshold point of 52015.06(figure may change), but the
good point is that it is above all its
short and few medium term moving
averages on the daily chart and above almost all short and above all medium term
moving averages on the weekly chart, and it has made higher top, it is still
holding the upside breakout from its immediate down trend line which is placed
at 51570(figure will change every day) for the day, furthermore few
important technical indicators have turned positive and triggered buy signal
also, therefore all together it indicates that this rise can extend further in coming days provided it holds the key
points as mentioned below . The short & medium term bias is down, but
the long term uptrend is still intact.
POSSIBLE MOVE ON THE DOWNSIDE:-
Moving down from here it may find broad support at (for other support points see the table on
the upside) 51708----51543----51479----51202.74------51022----50958-----50792-----50725.76----50698-----50617------50481-----50377---50044----49795-----49765----49730----49654.65------49511-----49423----49201.72-----49149-----48636.45---48292.25---48203.45---47756(figures
may change),
it can bounce back from any of these points, break & sustained close below
the range of 51708----51617----51543----51479---51202.74 may end the
possibility of a continued up –move for the time being. But please note that the range of 51022----50958----50792-----50698----50617---50481-----50377
and then 50044----49816----49795---49730-----49654.65----49511---49423----49144(figure
will change every day) is a very strong bounce back support range, break & sustained close below 51022 will
threaten the long term uptrend and thereafter break & close below each
point will weaken it further, break and sustained close below 49144 may
potentially end the long term uptrend for the time being and finally if it
break the range of 48636.45---48292.25---48203.45---47756 and sustains on the closing
basis then the correction could be more painful price-wise & time-wise
both, which may please be noted.
POSSIBLE MOVE ON THE UPSIDE:-
Please note that if It holds the
range of 51708----51570-----51543----51479----51202.74----51022
(figure may change) on the closing basis then the up move can extend for
sure but break & sustained close below the range and particularly below 51202.74
& 51022 will end the possibility of an up-move for a while. Moving up
from here the broad upside target could be 51827---52138---52331----52577----52835----53459---53613 it can correct at any of these points and then
may resume the up-move again or up-move can fizzle out for good also. Please
note that to gain a strong strength for the continuation of the up-move it has to move above the range of 53331.55-----53357.70----53500.30(figure
may change) and sustain on the closing basis and it will get into the strong
up momentum track if it moves above 53613 & 53636.71(figure may change) and
sustain on the closing basis and then it could retest its all-time high of 54467.35 or can go beyond it also.
TECHNICAL
INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY, WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-
It is important to mention here that it is having a see-saw movement quite often with huge volatility, which is not good sign for a steady market, now the overbought condition on the daily, weekly & monthly chart is present, some indicators triggered buy signal also but the few technical indicators are still weak and most importantly huge negative divergence is there on the daily, weekly chart and it appeared on the monthly chart too , so all together these developments are painting a mix picture now , so watch out for the next 1-2 days that how it pans out eventually and in fact it wiped out 50% yesterdays gain today, which indicates weak undertone , therefore, all indication together based on the indicators on the daily, weekly & monthly chart is pointing that it could head down and may seek much lower levels in coming days with intermittent relief rallies after this on-going rally finally ends.
IT IS SELL ON THE RISE MARKET NOW IN GENERAL;-
It is into the deep correction
mode therefore it is sell on rise market now in general till it gets out of the
correction mode or give visible sign of correction completion, but aggressive
traders can try both side trades depending on the price action for intraday
gains, but long trade could be a risky affair.
STRENGTH: -
1. It is still
in the long-term uptrend; break below 51022 will threaten the long term
uptrend.
2. It is well
above its most critical points of 48203.45---48292.25 & 48636.45, please note that it must stay above all these
points to keep up the strong up momentum going in the year 2024.
3. It is
above its weak & strong pullback threshold point of 50900.11 & 51202.74(figure
may change) respectively, price above these points may help it extend the
up-move.
4 The price action was mixed today.
5. Three out of seven important indicators is positive on the daily chart, indicating overbought condition and triggered buy signal also.
6. It l has
made higher top on the line chart.
7 It is
above all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the
important average range for day is between 51479---51543---51554----51569---51621---51708(figure will change every day), sustained close above this range can help to
extend the up-move.
WEAKNESS: -
1. Volatility
and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign
for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically
in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
2. Four out
seven important indicators on the daily chart are negative , given negative divergence,
but in the overbought zone. Please note that indicators, on the weekly &
monthly chart, also indicating overbought condition, sell signal and negative
divergence too.
3. It is
into deep correction mode as it is below
some of the correction threshold points of 53636.71-----53500.30---53331.55--52487.43---52098.30----52015.06
(figures may change). The other important
correction threshold points are at ----51549.93----51492.11 ----50725.73----49201.72---45416.49 (figure may change) and if it sustain below these points correction
will deepen.
4. It slipped
into correction mode for its recent rise as it closed above its threshold point
of 52015.06(figure may change).
TRADING CALL: --
1. Long trade can be tried on decline near 51570 time with a stop loss of 51300
for a possible intraday gain, else
avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky
bet but can be tried at critical support point with strict stop loss for
intraday gain.
2. Short
trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 52170---52230 with
a stop loss of 52370 or can sell below 51670 with a stop loss of 51930.
It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up
with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long
position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the
selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of
trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit
margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any
case.
Disclaimer:-The view
expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any
way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that
make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and
then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated
here are of spot market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Email—suranank@gmail.com
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
