CNX-BANK NIFTY
Open—53556.95--High—53726.40--Low—52926.55--Close—52978.10
on 30.9.2024.
Support:52794.95/52782.75/52340.25/51996.65/51750.10/51138.90/51133.20/50947.70/50369.40/49974.75/49654.65/49530.45/49057.40/48636.45/48313.60/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/47435.75/46983.75/46579/46077.85.
Resistance:53357.70/53741.40/54467.35/54593/54604/54772/54815/54924/55097/55209/55444/55646/55827/56135/56218.
OVERALL, VIEW: --
It opened with a down gap today and thereafter had both side
moves for some time and then steadily moved down and finally ended the day with
a loss of 856.20
points. Please note that the gap it created is still there and if makes an
effort to fill the gap in the next 4-5
trading sessions, which is technically possible then it could come up to 53763.20 but if it fails to fill the
gap in the stipulated time then chances of filling the gap will recede for the
time being, but it will surely fill the gap one day, which may please be noted.
Last two days move has weakened the chart setup a bit and It slipped into the correction mode today as
it closed below its correction threshold points and some other key points of 53715----53636.71----53514----53500.30----53363----53357.70---53331.55 (figures may change) which is a weak sign. Furthermore it has also
fallen below few of its short term moving averages and some important technical
indicators have also turned weak, therefore if it does not bounce back above
the aforesaid range and sustain on the closing basis in the shortest possible
time, then it may fall further from here. However if it manages to hold the
range of 52763----52741----52487.43--52476(figure
will change daily) on the closing basis it could still bounce back, else it may witness an accelerated down move.
It is important to mention here that if
it closes above 53331.55 & 53357.70 (figure may change)and sustain then the
chances are that it can extend the up move, but it may get into the good up
momentum track only once it closes above 53636.71(figure may change) and
sustain.
It is important to mention here that it is having see-saw movement quite often with huge volatility, which is not good sign for a steady market, the overbought condition on the weekly and monthly chart is still present but it neutralized on the daily chart a bit but still in overbought zone and most importantly negative divergence is still there on the weekly chart and it appeared on the monthly chart too is very concerning, therefore, all indication together based on few indicators on the daily, weekly & monthly chart is pointing that it is highly overbought and could head down in coming days and the process has begun and it may slide further, so keep an eye on for the positive price action for the possible up rally. It is in the long term uptrend as of now.
Moving down from here it may find broad support at (for other support points see the table on
the upside) 52763------52708-----52487.43------52476-----52292-----51778----51652-----51549.93----50725.76----50611----50517----50490-----50181-----49654------49414----49201.72-----48636.45---48292.25---48203.45---47795.89----47533.83(figures
may change), it
can bounce back from any of these points, It slipped into the correction mode
today as it closed below its correction threshold points and some other key
points of 53715----53636.71----53514----53500.30----53363----53357.70---53331.55 (figures may change) which is a weak sign, sustained close
below the range of 52763----52741----52487.43--52476(figure
will change daily) may accelerate the down move and thereafter close below
each point will weaken it further. Please
note that the range of 50611----50517----50490-----50181----49654---49414(figure
will change every day) is a very strong bounce back support range, but
sustained break and close below the range of 50611----50517----50490 will
threaten the long term uptrend and break and sustained close below the range of
50181----49654---49414 may accelerate the fall further.
It slipped into the correction mode
today therefore it is sell on decline market now in general till it gets out of
the correction mode , but both side trades can be tried depending on the price
action for intraday gains.
NOTE: - IT IS INTO
CORRECTION MODE NOW, HOWEVER IF IT COULD HOLD THE RANGE OF 52763----52741----52487.43--52476 (FIGURES MAY
CHANGE) ON THE CLOSING BASIS THEN IT
COULD STILL BOUNCE BACK, ELSE DOWN MOVE MAY CONTINUE. IT IS IN THE LONG TERM
UPTREND NOW.
STRENGTH: -
1. It is in
the long-term uptrend now, but break below 50517 will threaten the long
term uptrend.
2. It is well
above its most critical points of 48203.45---48292.25 & 48636.45, please note that it must stay above all these
points to keep up the strong up momentum going in the year 2024.
3. Four out of seven
indicators are positive now on the daily chart.
WEAKNESS: -
1. Some
important technical indicators are weak and overbought on the daily/weekly and
monthly chart and pointing that it could head down in the coming days/weeks and
months.
2. Volatility
and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign
for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically
in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
3. Three out
of seven important indicators is on the daily, weekly & monthly chart,
indicating overbought condition and sell signal also.
4 The price action was weak today.
5. It has
broken its recent bottom of 53968.60 on the line chart.
6. It is
into correction mode today as it closed below some of the correction threshold
points of 53636.71-----53500.30---53331.55(figures may change). The other important
correction threshold points are at 52487.43----52098.30---51549.93----50725.73----49201.72---45416.49 (figure may change) and if it sustain below these points correction
will deepen.
7. It is
below some of its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the
important average range for today is between 53715---53514---53363----53050----52763----52476(figure will change every day), sustained close below this range can accelerate
the down move.
TRADING CALL: --
1. Long trade can be tried on decline near 52500 if it holds this point for some time with a stop loss of 52350 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in
a corrective market could be a risky bet but can be tried at critical support
point with strict stop loss for intraday gain.
2. Short
trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 53350---53400 with
a stop loss of 53500 or can sell if it moves below 52900 with a
stop loss of 53100 It could be
a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up
with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long
position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the
selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of
trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit
margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any
case.
Disclaimer:-The view expressed
here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for
the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that
make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and
then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated
here are of spot market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Email—suranank@gmail.com
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
