CNX-NIFTY- A TECHNICAL OBSERVATION -21-12-2016

CNX-NIFTY

Open-8110.10—High-8124.10---Low—8062.75—Close—8082.40 on

20-12-2016

Support:- 8056.85/8002.25/7992/7952.55/7946/7935/7927/7916.40/7897/7859/7807/7735-7714.

Resistance:- 8121.95/8126/8139.45/8224.50/8230.65/8244/8257.42/8261.75/8274.95/8300/8337.90/8371/8402/8445/8476.70/8489/8506/8518/8540-8555/8598.45.

It behaved as expected and went down (see my post of 19-12-2016) and almost tested its recent important bottom of 8056.85 today, but managed to close above it. Since it has been falling for last five days and tested the important bottom of 8056.85 so if it holds it then it may have a short to moderate up move for a day or two before it start falling again, because looking at the overall technical structure fall seems inevitable in coming days/weeks as of now.

The trend is down furthermore it is running below its previous week low of 8121.95 which makes it further weak, the range of 8121.95—8140 is very tough to cross for the week therefore it is suggested to avoid long call below 8140 and below 8121.95 for sure, but in view of the above observation aggressive day trader can try long call if it sustain above 8085 today with a stop loss of below 8050, but it could be a risky trade mind you. Short call can be tried near 8121 with a stop loss of above 8140 or sell below 8056 with a stop loss of above 8085 for a target of 8000/7992/7952.  

Remark: - The uptrend is severely threatened and it is already in the downtrend now. In view of the above it is suggested to avoid long call for an anticipated small up move because it can trap you unaware, instead short call can be tried as suggested above. The overall technical setup is bearish.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable  trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

Note: Price stated here is of spot market.

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit  trade.

TRADING CALLS FOR 21-12-2016

TRADING CALLS

1. APOLLO HOSPITAL.

Sell below -1176, S/L-1182, Target-1155/1150/1142/1130.

2. ASHOK LEYLAND.

Sell below -76.50, S/L-77.50, Target-76.05/74.85/74.30/73.50.                                            

                                   

3. AUROBINDO PHARMA.

Sell below -669, S/L-675, Target-645/620/604/601/582.

                             

4. BAJAJ AUTO.

Sell below -2575, S/L-2588, Target-2550/2532/2510.

5. BANK OF BARODA.

Sell below-155, S/L-156.50, Target-152.40/150/141.30.

6. ICICI BANK.

Sell below-250.25, S/L-251.75, Target-245/243/239/236.65/221.

7. IDEA CELLULAR.

Sell below -73, S/L-73.80, Target-71.05/69.10/65.80.     

8. LUPIN.

Sell below -1442, S/L-1452, Target-1435/1415/1395/1390/1382.

9. MOTHERSON SUMI.

Sell below -318, S/L-323, Target-315.50/304.50/299.70/285.

10. TATA STEEL.

Sell below -401, S/L-404, Target-398/383/377.

Note: Price stated here is of spot market.

                                 

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable  trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit the trade

TRADING CALLS FOR 20-12-2016

TRADING CALLS

1. ASIAN PAINTS.

Sell below -875, S/L-882, Target-869/856/841/826/816.                                             

                                    

2. APPOLO HOSPITAL.

Sell below -1188.95, S/L-1198, Target-1155/1150/1142/1130.

3. BEL.

Sell below -1433, S/L-1442, Target-1421/1412/1402/1387.

                             

4. DR.REDDYS LAB.

Sell below -3055, S/L-3072, Target-3012/2960/2925.

5. HINDALCO.

Sell below-167.50, S/L-169.30, Target-161/156/150.70.

6. MOTHERSON SUMI.

Sell below -319, S/L-323, Target-315.50/304.50/299.70/285.

Note: Price stated here is of spot market.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable  trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit the trade

TRADING CALLS FOR 19-12-2016

TRADING CALLS

1. ASIAN PAINTS.

Sell below -895, S/L-908, Target-869/856/841/826/816.

                                      

2. BAJAJ AUTO.

Sell below -2649, S/L-2665, Target-2628/2603/2550/2510.

3. DR.REDDYS LAB.

Sell below -3101, S/L-3124, Target-3075/3066/3012.

4. HCL TECH.

Sell below -815, S/L-826, Target-796/790/785.781/771.

                              

5. HERO MOTOR CORP.

Sell below-3116, S/L-3130, Target-3074/3040/3028/2988.

6. TATA STEEL.

Sell below -412.50, S/L-416, Target-408/404/402/398/383.

Note: Price stated here is of spot market.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable  trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit the trade

CNX-NIFTY- A TECHNICAL OBSERVATION -19-12-2016

CNX-NIFTY

Open-8178.20—High-8178.70---Low—8127.45—Close—8139.45 on

16-12-2016

Support:-8121.95/8056.85/8002.25/7992/7952.55/7946/7935/7927/7916.40/7897/7859/7807/7735-7714.

Resistance:- 8224.50/8230.65/8244/8257.42/8261.75/8274.95/8300/8337.90/8371/8402/8445/8476.70/8489/8506/8518/8540-8555/8598.45.

It moved in a short range of 108 points during the week and ended the week near the low which is a bad sign. The technical setup is very weak and the pullback rally seems to be over, therefore it is expected that the down move should continue. However the range for the week starting from 19-12-16 is between 8230.65—8121.95 and breakout on either side will decide the movement for the week. But please note that its moving average placements are also bad with negative crossover in certain combinations and it is running below all its short and long term moving averages now and the latest long term moving average is placed at 8177.58(it changes every day) for 19-12-2016.Therefore chances of going down looks bright.

In view of the above observation it is suggested and safe to avoid long call below 8177.58 for sure and can only be tried if it moves and sustain above 8230.65(see my post of 16-12-16), however aggressive trader can try long call if it maintains above 8121.95 with a stop loss of below 8100 but it could be a risky trade mind you. Since the up move is possibly over therefore it is suggested to adopt sell on the rise strategy at appropriate points but not above 8231 with proper stop losses, sell for sure below 8121.95 with a stop loss of above 8145 for a target of 8077/8056/8000.  

I once again reiterate that (see my last post) it will gather down momentum below 8056 and fall will accelerate once it breaks it’s very important support range of 7946.35 to 7897.28(see my post of 26-11-2016 & 7-12-2016), which is likely to happen in coming days/weeks/months and in that case it will find next strong support in the range of 7714—7644 and then at 7331-7254.

Remark: - The uptrend is severely threatened and it is already in downtrend now. The pullback rally seems to be over therefore it is suggested to adopt sell on the rise strategy as suggested above or sell below 8121.95 for sure. The long call should be avoided and can only be tried if it sustain above 8230.65 for some time. The overall technical setup is bearish.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable  trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

Note: Price stated here is of spot market.

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit  trade.

CNX-NIFTY- A TECHNICAL VIEW -16-12-2016

CNX-NIFTY

Open-8128.40—High-8225.90---Low—8121.95—Close—8153.60 on

14-12-2016

Support:-8121.95/8056.85/8002.25/7992/7952.55/7946/7935/7927/7916.40/7897/7859/7807/7735-7714.

Resistance:- 8224.50/8230.65/8244/8257.42/8261.75/8274.95/8300/8337.90/8371/8402/8445/8476.70/8489/8506/8518/8540-8555/8598.45.

It opened with a down gap today but recovered within few minutes and came into positive territory but finally closed on a very weak note at 8153.60, breaking its recent bottom of 8170.80 on the line chart and 8154.45 on the bar chart, so the lower top and bottom on the line chart is established, it has also broken short bottom of 8154.45 on the bar chart but the recent major bottom of 8056.85 is intact, but it has given weak indication anyway on the bar chart too, furthermore it is also below its last long term moving average which is at 8172.40(it changes every day) for 16-12-2016, so the overall technical setup now  indicates that the on-going up move may be over and fresh down move may begin. Therefore it is suggested to avoid long calls now. However off late it has been witnessing good volatility, so in case if it starts moving up again avoid long call for sure below 8172.40(it changes every day) and since it has multiple top in the range of 8230.65—8225.90 on the bar chart, therefore it is suggested to try long call only if it sustains above 8230.65 for some time  but  aggressive trader can try long call  above 8172.40 or on decline near its recent major bottom of 8056.85 with a stop loss of below 8000, but it could be a risky trade as the on-going up move has possibly ended.

Since the pullback rally seems to be over and fresh down move may begin therefore short call could be a safer bet and can be tried on the rise at appropriate points but not above 8231 with a stop loss of above 8255 but it would be safe to try it below 8172 with a stop loss of above 8207.

It is important to mention here that it will gather down momentum below 8056 and fall will accelerate once it breaks it’s very important support range of 7946.35 to 7897.28(see my post of 26-11-2016 & 7-12-2016), which is likely to happen in coming days/weeks/months and in that case it will find next strong support in the range of 7714—7644 and then at 7331-7254.

  

Remark: - The uptrend is threatened and it is in intermediate downtrend now. The pullback rally seems to be over today therefore it is suggested to adopt sell on the rise strategy but it would be safe to sell below 8172. The long call can only be tried if it sustain above 8230.65 for some time. The overall technical setup is bearish.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable  trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

Note: Price stated here is of spot market.

CNX-NIFTY- A TECHNICAL VIEW-14-12-2016

CNX-NIFTY

Open-8196.15—High-8228.85---Low—8155.80—Close—8221.80

Support:-8170.80/8155.80/8154.45/8102.05/8056.85/8002.25/7992/7952.55/7946/7935/7927/7916.40/7897/7859/7807/7735-7714.

Resistance:- 8224.50/8230.65/8244/8257.42/8261.75/8274.95/8300/8337.90/8371/8402/8445/8476.70/8489/8506/8518/8540-8555/8598.45.

It did break its long term moving average at 8157 for 13-12-2016 for a while but could not sustain below it and it was far away from its bottom on the line and bar chart (see my post for 13-12-16) hence as expected it staged an up move and closed near the high of the day. Please note that today’s move has elevated the line chart bottom at 8170.80 and bar chart bottom at 8154.45 and its last long term moving average is placed at 8162.69(it changes every day) for 14-12-2016. Therefore the range of 8170.80---8154.45 is very important and as long as it holds this range the up move may be in place so long call can be tried till it hold this range with a stop loss of below 8130 avoid long call below 8170.Please note that break and close below 8154.45 will confirm the end of this on-going pullback rally. I once again reiterate (see my post of 12&13-12-2016) that pullback rallies are treacherous in nature and can end abruptly; therefore long trade should be handled with extreme caution. However in case if it continues moving up from here then the possible exhaustion points of this rally could be at 8275/8300/8370.  Short call can safely be tried if it sustain below 8154 with a stop of above 8225.

Remark: - The uptrend is threatened and it is in intermediate downtrend now. The pullback rally is on so as long as it holds the range of 8170.80—8154.45 long call can be tried as suggested above. The overall technical setup is bearish as of now.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

CNX-NIFTY- A TECHNICAL VIEW-13-12-2016

CNX-NIFTY

Support:-8102.05/8056.85/8002.25/7992/7952.55/7946/7935/7927/7916.40/7897/7859/7807/7735-7714.

Resistance:- 8224.50/8230.65/8244/8257.42/8261.75/8274.95/8300/8337.90/8371/8402/8445/8476.70/8489/8506/8518/8540-8555/8598.45.

It gave sharp down correction today but its recent higher bottom of 8102.05 on the line chart and 8056.85 on the bar chart is intact therefore it could still make an attempt to move up till it closes below 8102.05 and break 8056.85 mark. But the overall technical setup is weak and since it is a pullback rally only therefore it would be better and safe to avoid long call instead it is suggested that every rise has to be sold into at proper points.

Please note that its last long term moving average support is at 8157 for 13-12-2016(it changes every day and at present it is moving up by 4-6 points every day), therefore it is suggested to avoid long call below 8157, but since it has not broken its recent bottom on the line & bar chart, so day trader can try long call in the range of 8102—8063 if they wish to with a stop loss of below 8050.It could be a risky trade mind you. Since the technical setup is weak therefore it would be better to try short call instead either on the rise at appropriate points with proper stop losses or if it sustain below 8154 with a stop loss of above 8210.

Remark: - The uptrend is threatened and it is in intermediate downtrend now. It corrected sharply today therefore it is suggested to avoid long call below 8157 instead short call seems a safer bet below 8154 with suggested stop loss mentioned above. The overall technical setup is bearish as of now.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

CNX-NIFTY- A TECHNICAL VIEW-12-12-2016

CNX-NIFTY

Support:-8257.42/8250.80/8244/8224.50/8056.85/8002.25/7992/7952.55/7946/7935/7927/7916.40/7897/7859/7807/7735-7714.

Resistance:-8274.95/8300/8337.90/8371/8402/8445/8476.70/8489/8506/8518/8540-8555/8598.45.

The up rally which started from the bottom of 7916.40 gave some sign of exhaustion but did not confirm it and got extended (see my post of 7-12-2016). It is needless to mention here that this is just a pullback rally and will get fizzle out any time, but if it holds 8257.42 mark the rally may extend further and the possible exhaustion points could be at 8300/8338/8371&8463. Please note that if it moves and sustain above 8463 then situation has to be reviewed.

Please note that it has been rallying for 15 days from the bottom of 7916.40 and it is becoming vulnerable for down move with each passing up day, therefore long call is not suggested overall, however as long as it sustain above 8257 long call can be tried by the day trader with a stop loss of below 8230 but it would be safe to try long call above 8275 with a stop loss of below 8250 during the week starting from 12-12-2016.Please note that the authentic stop loss for long call would below 8145. Similarly aggressive trader can try short call if it sustain below 8257 for some time with a stop loss of above 8275.

Remark: - The uptrend is threatened and it is in intermediate downtrend now. The pullback rally got extended but with each passing up day it looks vulnerable for complete exhaustion therefore long call should only be attempted above 8275 during the week starting from 12-12-2016. Similarly short call can be tried as suggested above. The overall technical setup is bearish as of now.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

CNX-NIFTY- A TECHNICAL VIEW-7-12-2016

CNX-NIFTY

Support:-8056.85/8002.25/7992/7952.55/7946/7935/7927/7916.40/7897/7859/7807/7735-7714.

Resistance:-8151/8176—8190.45/8224.50/8250.80/8260/8295/8338/8476.70/8489/8506/8518/8540-8555/8598.45.

Today’s move gives an indication that the up rally which started after it made a bottom at 7916.40 on 21.11.2016 seems to have exhausted at 8250.80 on 1-12-2016 as expected(see my post of 26-11-2016), however the confirmation will come after it closes below 8056. But since it is below all its long term moving averages now therefore long call should be avoided below 8141 for 8-12-2016(it changes every day, now it is moving up by 4-6 points every day so adjust every days count accordingly for trade convenience) similarly short call should be avoided above this mark. The up rally may extend only if it moves above 8191 and then crosses 8251, chances of which looks slim in view of today’s move, but since today’s volatility and down move could be due to R.B.I's Credit Policy announcement also, therefore watch out the market for a day or two and see how it behaves. But the market is weak therefore in broad sense it is sell on the rise market as of now, so long call should be avoided or if entered should be handled with utmost caution and care.

Technically it is on an extremely weak footing and overall technical setup indicate that it is likely to break its recent bottom of 7916.40 and to witness much lower levels in days/weeks to come.  But since it is having bed of supports in the range of 7946.35 to 7897.28(see my post of 26-11-2016), therefore one should be very careful within this range and structure your trade accordingly. Please note that it will trigger fresh fall only once it breaks 7897 and sustain, which is likely to happen in near future and in that case it will find next strong support in the range of 7714—7644 and then at 7331-7254.

Since it is in downtrend long call is not suggested but day trader if they wish to can try long call if it sustain above 8141(adjust this figure every day as mentioned above) with a stop loss of below 8110, similarly short call can be tried below 8141 with a stop loss of above 8200.

  

Remark: - The uptrend is severely threatened and it is in intermediate downtrend now. The pullback rally seems to have exhausted, therefore avoid long call below 8141 for sure, short call seems a safer bet below 8141.  The overall technical setup is highly bearish as of now.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

CNX-NIFTY- A TECHNICAL VIEW-26-11-2016

CNX-NIFTY

Support:-8077/8063/8002/7992/7952.55/7946/7935/7927/7897/7859/7807/7735-7714.

Resistance:-8122.25/8151/

8176—8193//8258/8287/8295/8338/8476.70/8489/8506/8518/8540-8555/8598.45.

As expected the level of 8052 was broken(see my post of 6-11-2016) and it went on to break the bottom of 7927.05 it made on 24.6.2016 and hit a low of 7916.40 but did not close below the bottom of 7927.05. It moved in a short range thereafter for three days and yesterday it gave a robust up move.

It is important to mention here that 7927.05 was one of the major bottom and 7897.28 was the 50% retracement point of the entire recent rise from the  bottom of 6825.80 to the top of 8968.70,furthermore the critical points for the year 2016 are also at 7946.35 & 7938.45,so the range of 7946.35 to 7897.28 was a very strong support range and it respected this range moving down and staged a bounce back from there which was quite normal and expected because technically it rarely breaks the huge support range at one go, but looking at the overall technical setup it seems that the recent low of 7916.40 may be taken out in coming days /weeks and  if it breaks and sustain below 7850 then it may hit much lower levels of 7714—7644---7500  also, which  is very likely as of now.   

The trend is down and the on-going up move seems to be a pullback rally only which may fizzle out at any of these points.8177/8258/8338/8438/8463 or since it is still below it long term moving average range of 8446-8403-8348-8303-8193-8151-8104.65(it changes every day) except for one which is at 8104.65(it changes every day) moving up the rally can end at any of the aforesaid points also or if it fails to hold 8104.65(it changes every day)level. The trend is down therefore long call is not suggested however those who wish to take advantage of this pull back rally can try long call above 8104.65 with a stop loss of below 8040, aggressive trader can try short call on the reasonable rise and at appropriate points (can take help from the above mentioned figures) with a proper stop loss or sell if it sustains below 8100 with a stop loss of above 8155. But those who want to play safe should try sell call below 8100 only.

It is very important to note that it will regain the desired up momentum only if it moves and sustain above 8463. The journey from the present level to the said mark is looking very tough at the present moment. Please be very careful and cautious in long trade and I once again reiterate to avoid long call below 8100.

Remark: - The uptrend is severely threatened and it is in intermediate downtrend now. The on-going up move is a pullback rally and once it is over then it is expected to resume the down move again and the recent low of 7916.40 may be taken out. So those who wish to try long call can try above 8105 but be cautious because this rally may end abruptly also. Short call can safely be tried below 8100 or as suggested above. The overall technical setup is bearish.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

CNX-NIFTY--A REVIEW (IT IS IN CORRECTION MODE NOW AND CRITICALLY POISED )-6-11-2016

CNX-NIFTY

Support:-8400/8398/8353/8336/8287/8063/7992/7946/7935/7927.

Resistance:-8476.70/8489/8506/8518/8540-8555/8625.70/8653.15/8661/8669.60/8678.25/8728.35/8736.95/8745.

I feel that the observation in my last post of 24-8-2016 was relevant and valid till date as it moved within the mentioned range for so long. The range was 8476—8517---8661—8730—8930(see my post of 24-8-2016). It did close above 8930 for a day on 6-9-2016 and next day hit a intra-day high of 8968.70 but could not sustain above 8930 on the closing basis and thereafter started making lower top and bottom but defended the critical and breakdown point of 8476.70(see my post of 24-8-2016). But it has broken this critical point on 4-11-2016 which is a bad sign because sustained close below this mark can drag it down sharply. Going down it may find support at 8324/8172/8135/8052, it may stage a bounce back from any of these points but sustained close below 8052 could dent the long term uptrend. Similarly moving up it would face resistance at 8463/8507—8555/8625.70---8679/8728---8745.

Please note that as of now the long term uptrend is still intact as it is above all its long term moving averages but it is pretty to close to the upper band of the averages now so it dangerously poised. The range of long term moving averages is between 8431.50—8052(it changes every day) for 7-11-2016. Please note that break and sustained close below   8431 will be a threat to the on-going uptrend and sustained break and close below 8052 may end the uptrend. The few technical indicators are also pointing that a reasonable to severe fall could be imminent and the level of 8052 may be taken out in coming weeks/months. Furthermore I once again reiterate (see my post of 5^th and 24^th August-2016) that it is moving in 8 years time cycle and it witnessed crash in the year 1992, 2000 &2008 and 2016 is the eighth year again and all the ingredients are present for a severe down correction or a crash like situation now, such as huge upsurge in value of small and mid caps stocks irrespective of the fundamentals and flurry of IPO’S in last few months.  The down correction is already on and in last two trading session small and mid cap stocks have taken severe beating then the large cap stocks the up momentum is shaken by this beating and if it continues for another day or two then it will be difficult to regain the up momentum again very soon therefore it has to be seen how this on-going correction culminates. The things are not looking that great technically. So be careful in long commitments as of now.  

It is important to mention here that U.S.A election is ahead next week and the outcome of it could impact the stock market world over in either way for a while and huge volatility could be witnessed. but eventually fundamentals of your own  would come into play and guide your market. So be vigilant and cautious in the market for at least the coming week.   

Remark: - It is still in long term uptrend.  But it is in correction mode now and it is precariously poised because long term uptrend could be threatened if it breaks 8431.50 and sustain below it, therefore it is suggested to avoid long call below 8430 furthermore market could witness huge volatility in wake of U.S election outcome in coming week, it is therefore suggested to keep your trade commitment light.The overall technical setup looks bearish. 

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

CNX-NIFTY- A REVIEW(LOOKS HIGHLY VULNERABLE FOR CORRECTION)-24-8-2016.

CNX-NIFTY

Support:-8600/8540/8517/8476/8398/8336.30/8287.55.

Resistance:-8728.35/8850/8920/8997/9119.20.

Further to my last post of 5-8-2016 it has failed to sustain above 8661 level for 4 days in a row but it is has not given any sharp down correction either and has been moving in the range of 8517—8728 for last one month. It could be consolidation or distribution and this has to be seen how it pans out in coming days but until and unless it sustains above 8661 level on the closing basis consistently and then crosses 8730 level, chances of this on-going up move to continue seems difficult. Please note that even if it sustains above 8661 level moving up may not be easy as it will face huge resistance at 8670/8730/8820/8850/8930 before the smooth ride begins.

It is important to mention here that since it has failed to sustain above 8661 level despite moving above this mark couple of times and closing above it also but could not sustain, so the vulnerability for down correction is increasing with each passing day. Therefore it is still suggested to avoid long trade till it closes above 8661 and sustain for at least 4 days or try it after it crosses 8730 mark or in case of down correction after reasonable decline and at proper points. So, at present trying short call on the rise with a stop loss of above 8730 could be a better idea.

It is needless to mention here that long term trend is up and it will be threatened only if it breaks the range of 8120--8040-7930 and sustain and the uptrend may end if it breaks 7800 level and sustain below it(see my post of 5-8-2016). However the range of 8476-8517-8661-8730 is critical for now and if it fails to move above 8661 and sustain and then unable to cross 8730 level soon then it could go in for moderate to severe down correction, similarly sustained break below 8476 may trigger fresh fall and the on-going uptrend may end which may be kept in mind. Therefore if it goes in for correction from here then keep a close watch on the critical figures mentioned above and see how correction culminates. Furthermore as mentioned in my earlier post that it is moving in 8 years time cycle and it witnessed crash in the year 1992, 2000 &2008 and 2016 is the eighth year again and all the ingredients are present for a down correction or a crash like situation now (see my last post of 5-8-2016), furthermore the month of September & October is always critical for the stock market world over and particularly for our markets, therefore deep down correction or a crash like situation cannot be ruled out. So be vigilant and cautious.   

Remark: - It is in the uptrend. But it is in highly vulnerable zone for correction so avoid long call now and only attempt it if it consistently sustain above 8661 and then crosses 8730 or after reasonable decline at proper levels. Short call can be tried now on the rise with a stop loss of above 8730. Crash like situation cannot be ruled out in coming days/weeks or months. Therefore extreme caution is advised.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Note: Price stated here is of spot market.

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit the trade.

CNX-NIFTY- A REVIEW- THAT IT MAY STILL BE HEADING FOR SEVERE CORRECTION OR A CRASH LIKE SITUATION -5-8-2016

CNX-NIFTY

Pursuant to my last post of 8-7-2016 it has gone up by more than 400 points intraday which is a huge rise but vulnerability for correction is also increasing with straight rise. Technically it is looking o.k. on the long term chart but short term signals are weak as of now and indicate that it could correct from here and may hit 8336—8300 range in coming days. Furthermore please note that in last few days it hit a high of 8711.30 but otherwise it has been moving in the range of 8520---8675 and 8577—8661 range is very critical for it and if this uptrend has to continue then it has to sustain above 8661 consistently on the closing basis. It went beyond 8661 intraday for five days in last few days but could close above it for just one day only and then moved down. Therefore the upper band of the said range is looking highly vulnerable for correction, so the long trade should only be attempted if it sustains above 8661 on the closing basis for 3-4 days or after a reasonable decline at appropriate levels. Going down the support levels are at 8489.80/8476.70/8407/8353-8336-8300/8287.55/8243/.  

It has been moving up unabated for last five months giving a phenomenal rise of 1885.50 points, which is 82.21% retracement from the top & bottom of 9119.20 & 6825.80. Please note that any retracement beyond 80% if it does not hold on the closing basis then correction is imminent or the on-going up move may be over and it may start fresh down journey and the 80% mark is at 8660.52. So it is the benchmark point for now. Please note that if it corrects from here then the first critical support range for it is between 8350—8300 and then 8243-8153.  The uptrend will be potentially threatened only if it breaks the range of 8040-7930 and sustain and the uptrend may end if it breaks 7800 level and sustain. I once again reiterate that 8577--8661  is highly risky zone therefore long call should only be attempted if it sustains above 8661 for few days or after reasonable decline may be in the range of 8340—8300--8243. At present short call can be tried on the rise with a stop loss of above 8730.

 Above all it is important to mention here that all the ingredients are present now for a deep correction or for a crash like situation as it had witnessed before the crash of 1992/2000 & 2008, furthermore it is moving in 8 year time cycle, so the crash like situation in 2016 may not be ruled out completely and it may happen anytime now but latest expected by September-2016(see my post of 8-7-2016), so be alert and watchful. The atmosphere is ideal for strong correction or a crash like situation because the optimism is at the highest level defying fundamentals, valuation are stretched beyond imagination in all the segments specially in small and midcap stocks, stock tips are making round as it seems that it is everybody’s game, stocks with no fundamentals and financial weakness or with huge financial losses have witnessed unprecedented rise in last few months and lastly  flurry of I.P.O hitting the market in last few months, therefore present situation is identical as it was before the earlier market crash as mentioned above. Kindly note that it cannot keep on going like this and eventually fundamental and financial strength will come into play and prices will come back to realistic levels.  In fact in last few days small and midcap stocks are making spike tops and then moving down which is an ample indication that small and midcap stocks are possibly topping out and they may head for a bigger decline in coming days. Large caps stocks have also started giving weak signals and fall could be imminent. Therefore do not to get carried away or tempted by the market moves and tips circulating around instead do your own research and pick up stocks with sound fundamental and which are available at reasonable valuation else wait for them to come to realistic level and then invest. It is suggested not to chase the stock because it seems that a trap has been laid and if one is not careful and get tempted then one may be sucked into it. Furthermore please avoid left out feeling in the market for sure because it is certainly going to trap you. Last but not the least be vigilant and act judiciously. 

Remark: - It is in the uptrend. It is highly vulnerable zone for correction so avoid long call now and only attempt it if it consistently sustain above 8661 or on decline in the range of 8340—8300—8243. Short call can be tried now on the rise but not above 8661 with a stop loss of above 8730. Crash like situation cannot be ruled out in coming days/weeks or months. Therefore extreme caution is advised.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Note: Price stated here is of spot market.

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit the trade.