CNX-NIFTY
Open—26333.70---High—26373.20---Low---26210.05--Close---26250.30 on 5.1.2026
Support:26246.65/26236.40/26202.60/26104.20/26097.85/25057.60/25891/25842.95/25740.80/25726.80/25718.20/25693.25/25669.35/25548.70/25448.50/25318.45/24255.30/25153.65/25079.80/25008.20/24918.65/24882.30/24857.75/24854.80/24792.30/24753.15/24694.35/24587.70/24537.60/24502.15/24498.20/24494.45/24473/24462.40/24404.70/24337.50/24226.70/24198.75/24141.80/24099.70/24094.20/24073.90/23938.85/23935.75/23893.70/23873.35/23869.65/23847.45/23816.15/23807.30/23667.20/23664/23644.80/23637.65/23484.15/23537/23426.30/23391.65/23338.70/23263.15/23110.80/23049.95/23047.25/22976.85/22794.70/22786.90/22775.70/22768.40/22676.75/22625.30/22577.40/22546/22525.65/22502/22314.70/22303.80/22281/22165/22124.70/22104.85/21964.60/21875.25/21860.65/21821.05/21777.65/21710.20/21530.20/21448.65/21281.45/21137.20/21021.88/20976.80/20769.50/20291.50/20222.45/19991.85/19839/19333.60.
Resistance:26277.35/26325.80/26340/26357/26374/26404/26458/26497/26567/26594/26650/26678/26694/26717/26816/26842/26995/27001/27095/27212/27293/27375/27510/27824.
OVERALL VIEW
ON THE DAILY CHART:
--
It opened on a flat to positive note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and in the process hit a new all-time high of 26373.20 and finally, ended the day with a loss of 78.25 points. It is also important to mention here that it still has earlier unfilled gaps (gap points on downside are 25365.15, 24164, 22923, 22468 & 22254) also on the downside/upside, which is still a huge concern, although stipulated time for filling the gap is over long ago, but it will fill the gap one day for sure. So, be cautious. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, this is not a good sign for a steady market.
The technical setup looks strong and showing good strength for the continuation of the up-move, but is slipped into correction mode today, however on the down move if it manages to holds its critical & key points of 26246.65----26223.88---26220.53----26212.73----26173.30---26145----26129.60---26124.28---26104.20----26051.13---26013---25951.82----25892.77---25891—--25878----25842.95 on the closing basis then the chances of the up-move will be alive. But break & sustained close below the range 26246.65----26223.88---26220.53----26212.73 will make the correction mode deepen and weaken further, break & sustained close below the range of 26173.30---26129.60 will lose steam for the up-move , break & sustained close below the range of 26124.28---26104.20----26051.13---26013---25951.82 will weaken it further and also dampen the chances of an up-move, break & sustained close below the range of 25951.82----25892.77---25891—--25878----25842.95 will trigger fresh fall and push it into deep correction mode and can drag it down further. Moving down further it will find its next critical support points at 25740.80---25726.30---25718.40---25693.25---25669.35----25489----25318.45 (figures may change), it may bounce back from any of these points, but break & sustained close below the range of 25740.80---25726.30---25718.40---25693.25 may trigger down-slide, break & sustained close below the range of 25489-----25318.45 may make the correction more painful time-wise & price-wise both and will threaten the long term uptrend as well.
Moving up the key resistance points could be at 26256.33----26277.35—26325.80---26373.20---26357---26374---26404---26458---26497---26567---26594---26650---26678----26694----26717---26816 (some figures may change daily or at some point of time) it may correct at any of these points and then may resume the up-move again or may halt the up-move for a while. Please note that if it moves above 26256.33 and sustain on the closing basis then it will get out of correction mode and may resume the up-move, if it moves above 26277.35 & 26325.80 and sustain on the closing basis then it may get back into strong up-momentum track again, else it may drift down. It is in the strong long-term uptrend, but slipped into short correction today.
INVERSE HEAD & SHOULDER PATTERN
VISIBLE:- If it is above its neckline of 26104.20
and sustains above it on the closing
basis then the maximum upside target could be in the range of 26800-26900 but
the up-move can halt or retreat earlier also. Similarly sustained close below
26104.20 & then below 25718.20 will be a sign of pattern failure and then
it will drift down further.
IMPORTANT
NOTE: - THE IMPORTANT POINTS FOR THE YEAR--2026
ARE 26129.60---26173.30---26325.80 AND TO KEEP THE HOPE ALIVE FOR A CONTINUED
UP-MOVE IT HAS TO SUSTAIN ABOVE 26129.60---26173.30 AND TO GET INTO STRONG UP
MOMENTUM IT HAS TO MOVE ABOVE 26325.80 AND SUSTAIN ON THE CLOSING BASIS
THROUGH-OUT THE YEAR , ELSE IT MAY START TO DRIFT DOWN.
TECHNICAL INDICATORS AND MOVING AVERAGE PLACEMENT ON THE CHART;-
POSITIVE POINTS:-
1. Few important
indicators such as PS, EV, MACD, ST & ADX is in the buy mode, so it may
rally up at times and may sustain also.
2. It is above all
its long terms moving average on the daily chart and the top average is placed
at 25489(figure will change daily) for the day.
3. It is above all its short term moving averages on the daily,
weekly& monthly chart.
4. It is above all
its medium-term moving averages on the daily, weekly & monthly chart.
NEGATIVE POINTS:-
1. Few important
indicators such as VM is in the sell mode and RSI with negative divergence and
it is in overbought zone, so down move may happen at times.
In view of the above observation there is a mixed
possibility and it can swing both ways but with a slight upward--bias as of
now. Furthermore
please also note that earlier vertical rise, unfilled gaps, negative divergence
and in the overbought zone on weekly & monthly chart is still a concern,
therefore fall also cannot be ruled out in coming weeks & months. Please
keep an eye on the critical resistance & support points and price action
for further directional indication.
TECHNICAL
INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-
WEEKLY CHART: - Few important technical indicators are positive MACD, EV, ST,ADX& PS is in the buy mode, VM is in the sell mode and RSI is with negative divergence and it is in the overbought zone, therefore it may witness corrective down move at times.
MONTHLY CHART: -Few indicators are in buy mode such as ST,PS & ADX, but key indicator such as MACD & VM are in the sell mode, it is in the overbought zone and with negative divergence in RSI. Therefore, all together indicators are painting a mixed picture now with slight tilt towards down-side as of now; therefore, further fall in the coming months cannot be ruled out, so be watchful.
IT
IS BUY ON DECLINE MARKET NOW;-
It is completely
out of correction mode, therefore it is buy on decline market now till it holds
its critical point of 26173.30---26129.60--
26104.20 & 26013 on the closing basis. But short trade can also be tried on sharp rise
near critical resistance points or range with strict stop losses, for intraday corrective gains.
STRENGTH:-
1. It is above its major long-term
rising trend line which is placed at 25591 for the month of January-2026; it could be an important & strong support point.
2. It is above its most critical first & second make or break bottom of 25693.25 & 25318.45 sustained close above it will keep the hope alive of resuming the up-move again.
3. It is above its major long-term
rising trend drawn from the bottom of 7511
made on 20.3.2020, which is placed
at 25554(figure will change
and inch up every day) for the day.
4. It is out of correction mode as
it is above all of its correction threshold points of 26223.88---26220.53----26212.73----26124.28---26051.13---25951.82----25892.77 (figure
may change),
sustained close above these points can keep the hope alive for up-move.
5. It still has higher top & bottom
on the line & bar chart.
6. The price
action was positive today.
7. It is above its 2nd downtrend line, which is placed at 26077(figure will change daily) for the day, it is a positive sign.
8. It is above its inverse head & shoulder neckline of 26104.20 and if it sustains above it on the closing basis then it can hit the
range of 26800—26900.
9. It is above all its short-term
moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for day
is 26145---26126----26072--26064—26013 (figure will change every day), sustained close above this range can help
it to extend the up-move.
10. It is above its short term rising
trend line which is placed at 26137 (figure will change daily) for the day, sustained close
above this line can help it to extend up-move further.
WEAKNESS: -.
1. Volatility and wild swing can
be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market
condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming
days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
2. To get back into strong up-momentum track
it has to move above 26277.35
& 26325.80 and sustain on the closing basis, else it
may drift down.
3. It
slipped into short correction mode as it closed below its threshold point of 26256.33 sustained close below this point can drag it down further.
TRADING CALL: --
1. Long trade
can be tried on decline near or within the range of 26210----26173 if it
holds this range for some time then with a stop loss of 26100 for a possible intraday gain,
else avoid.
2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 26372---26413
with a stop loss of 26470 or can sell near 26325.80 if
it sustain below it for some time then with a stop loss of 26385. It could be a risky trade but can be
tried for intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.
Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at
all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the
above view.
Kindly note that make your cost your
stop loss in favorable trade
and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated here are of spot
market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
Email--- suranank@gmail.com
