CNX-BANK NIFTY
Open—55441.10---High—55566.70--Low—55001.50---Close—55043.70 on 12.8.2025.
Support:54905.60/54576.60/54467.35/54442.30/54176.45/53888.30/53483.05/53357.70/52794.95/52782.75/52760.20/52577.50/52493.95/52354.85/51979.75/51749.45/51749.45/51693.50/51138.90/51133.20/51000.90/50947.70/50860.20/50841.90/50641.75/50438.30/50382.10/50369.40/50194.30/49974.75/49904.40/49836.10/49787.10/49688.80/49654.65/49459/49300/49162.65/49057.40/48972.55/48906.05/48839.10/48734.35/48636.45/48525.60/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/48074.05/47898.35/47844.15/47702.90/47363.40/46983.75/46077.85/45828.80/45661.75/44633.85/44429/43600.25/43345.45/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40.
Resistance:55149.30/55475.45/55547.35/55475.45//55695/55957.75/56098.70/56161.40/56204.85/56594.25/56623.60/57049.50/57276.55/57312.75/57363.70/57375.80/57566/57628.40/57683/57755/58000/58224/58316/58479/58950.
OVERALL, VIEW: --
It opened on a negative note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally, ended the day with a loss of 467.05 points. But it is important to mention here that it still has earlier unfilled gaps (gap points are 54054.80, 51361, 51244 & 50496) , which is still a huge concern, although stipulated time for filling the gap is over long ago, but it will fill the gap one day for sure. So, be cautious. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, and it is not a good sign for a steady market.
The technical setup is extremely weak,
it is into short, medium and deep correction mode for its recent rise and also into
medium & deep correction mode for
its earlier rise, it is below its
multiple short term rising trend-lines, it is making lower top & bottom on
the line & bar chart, below all its short term moving average on
the daily & mostly below on the weekly chart, also below most of the medium
term moving averages on the daily chart, furthermore almost all the important
technical indicators are negative on the daily & weekly charts and most importantly today again it violated & closed below its
major long term rising trend-line which
is drawn from the bottom of 16116.25 made on 24.3.2020 and is placed at 55255(this
figure will change & inch up every day) and also closed below its crucial
bottom of 55149.30 which is tremendously weak indication and if it sustain
below both these points then it may accelerate the down move.
Moving down further its next critical support points or range could be 54905.60---54467.35----54312.12----54198(some figures may change daily), which is yet again an important bounce back points or range and if it holds this range then the chances of resuming the up move will still be faintly alive. But break & sustained close below 54905.60 may trigger fresh fall, break & sustained close below 54467.35 will dampen the chances of up-move in the year 2025 and it may head down with an accelerated pace and finally if it moves below 54312.12 & 54198 and sustain on the closing basis then the long term uptrend will be threatened and it may slide down further and then it may find its next strong support at 53483.05 and please note that break & sustained close below it may witness an accelerated fall.
Moving up the broad resistance points could be at 55285.91--55547.37----55549---55629.14----55897.15-----55961.95----55991----56038.48---56098.70---56116------56650.10-----56908.08----57043.33---57049.50----57084----57189.04---57213-----57376----57566---57629(some figures may change)(for complete resistance points see
the table on the upside) it may correct at any of these points and then may resume the up-move
again or may pause the rally for a while. Please note that if it moves above 55547.37 & 55549 and sustain on the closing basis,
then it will be above its pullback threshold, so the chances of a continued
up-move may enhance a bit, if it moves above the range of 55897.15-----55961.95 and sustain then the up-move is most likely to
extend further , if it moves above the range of 55901---- 56038.48---56098.70---56116 and
sustain then it will get good foothold and raise
good hope for extending the up-move, if it moves above 56650.10 and sustain then it will get out of
deep corrective mode for its recent rise, if it moves above the range of 56908.08----57043.33---57049.50----57084 and
sustain on the closing basis then it may
get back into strong up- momentum track
and may retest its all-time high of 57628.40 or may go beyond it also. It is still in a long term uptrend,
but into deep correction mode for its recent rise.
IMPORTANT NOTE: - THE KEY POINTS FOR THE MONTH
OF AUGUST-2025 ARE 55547.35---55897.15 & 55961.95 IT HAS TO MOVE & REMAIN ABOVE THESE POINTS FOR AN
UP-MOVE TO CONTINUE, ELSE IT WILL DRIFT DOWN. PLEASE NOTE THAT AS EXPECTED
YESTERDAYS RALLY FIZELED OUT TODAY. IT IS DOWN BUT NOT YET OUT COMPLETELY, SO
WATCH-OUT FOR NEXT 2-3 DAYS HOW IT PANS OUT. IT IS SUGGESTED TO AVOID LONG
TRADE TILL IT CLOSES ABOVE 55300.
TECHNICAL INDICATORS
PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-
POSITIVE
POINTS:-
1. It is
still above its long term moving average and the top average is placed at 54198(figure
will change every day).
2. on few
technical indicators it is in the oversold zone & RSI has given a positive
divergence, so it may give relief rally at times.
3.
Volatility method showing a buy signal.
NEGATIVE
POINTS:-
1. below all
its short term moving average on the daily & below almost all on the weekly
chart.
2. below most
of the medium term moving average on the daily chart.
3. Most of
the important technical indicators are negative and MACD, EV, PS, ADX & ST
is in the sell mode.
In view of the above there is a high probability that the down move
may continue with in between relief rally at times. Furthermore please note that
earlier vertical rise, unfilled gaps, negative divergence and in the overbought
zone on weekly & monthly chart is still a concern, therefore further fall
cannot be ruled out in coming days. Please keep an eye on the critical
resistance & support points and price action for further directional
indication.
TECHNICAL
INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART: -
WEEKLY CHART: - Almost all the indicators have turned negative and MACD, EV, PS, ST are in the sell mode and RSI is with huge negative divergence, therefore further fall looks quite likely in coming weeks .But the silver lining is that it is in the neutral/oversold zone and ADX is still in the buy mode, so it may have short up-moves at times.
MONTHLY CHART:-Few indicators are in buy mode such as MACD, ST, PS & ADX, but it is in the overbought zone and with huge negative divergence in RSI. Therefore, all together indicators are painting a mixed picture now with tilt towards down-side as of now.
IT IS SELL ON THE RISE
MARKET NOW;-
It is into deep
correction mode now therefore it is sell on the rise market now till it closes
above 55550 and sustain on the closing basis. But long trade can
also be tried on the decline near critical support points or range with strict
stop losses, for intraday gains.
STRENGTH: -
1. It is above
its most crucial bottom of 55149.30 & 53483.05, if it
sustains above it on the closing basis then the chances of the up-move will be alive.
2. It is above
all its long-term moving averages and the top average is placed at 54198(figure
will change every day),
close below this point would be a threat to the long term uptrend.
3 It is way above
its most critical point of 54467.35, please note that it is essential to stay
above this point to keep the up-momentum going in the year-2025, else it
may drift down.
4. The price action was mixed today.
WEAKNESS: -
1. Volatility
and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign
for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically
in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
2. It is into short, medium & deep correction mode for its recent rise and into medium & deep correction mode for its earlier rise as it closed below its threshold point of 57189.04---57043.33---56908.08-----56650.10---55629.14---55285.91 (figure may change), sustained close below these points can drag it down much lower.
3. It is
below all (except for one)its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart
and the important average range for day is between 56116---55901--55765---55544---55521---55371(figure will change every day), sustained close below this range may continue with the down-move.
4. It is making lower top
& bottom on the line & bar chart.
5. It is
below its recent pullback threshold point of 55549(figure
may change), if it sustain below it chances of up move may dampen.
TRADING CALL: --
1. Long trade
can be tried on decline near 55905 if it holds this point for some time
but not below it with a stop loss of 54750 for a possible intraday gain,
else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market
could be a risky affair, but can be tried near critical support points for
intraday gains.
2. Short
trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 55450—55500 with
a stop loss of 55600 or can sell if it moves below 54905 and
maintain for some time with a stop loss of 55050. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for
intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up
with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position,
but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point
and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be
squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the
trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.
Disclaimer:-The view
expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any
way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that
make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and
then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated
here are of spot market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Email—suranank@gmail.com
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
