CNX-NIFTY
Open—23344.10—High—23430.95---Low---23273.05---Close---23437.20 on 16.4.2025.
Support:23426.30/23391.65/23338.70/23263.15/23110.80/23049.95/23047.25/22976.85/22794.70/22786.90/22775.70/22768.40/22676.75/22625.30/22577.40/22546/22525.65/22502/22314.70/22303.80/22281/22165/22124.70/22104.85/21964.60/21875.25/21860.65/21821.05/21777.65/21710.20/21530.20/21448.65/21281.45/21137.20/21021.88/20976.80/20769.50/20291.50/20222.45/19991.85/19839/19333.60.
Resistance:23484.15/23537/23637.65/23644.80/23664/23667.20/23807.30/23816.15/23873.35/23893.70/23938.85/24073.90/24094.20/24099.70/24141.80/24354.55/24472.80/24498.20/24537.60/24694.35/24753.15/24792.3024854.80/24857.75/25078.30/25234.05/25285.55/25333.65/25445.70/25871.35/26277.35/26328/26995/27095/27212/27293/27381.
OVERALL VIEW
ON THE DAILY CHART:
--
It opened on a positive note and thereafter
it had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day, with a gain of
108.05
points. The gap it created on 15.4.2025---11.4.2025
& 8.4.2025 is still there and if it makes an effort to fill the
respective days gap in the next 3—4/ 2--3 & 1 days trading
sessions, which is technically possible then it can come down to 22923---22468
& 22254, but if it fails to fill the gap within the stipulated
time then the chances of filling the gap will recede for the time being, but
one day it will fill the gap for sure. Please note that it is often exhibiting
volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.
The technical setup has improved but still weak
It is into deep correction mode for its earlier & recent rise and long term
uptrend is severely threatened as it is below almost all its long term moving
averages except for one on the daily chart. Please note that if it manages to
hold the range of 23341---23302 & 23239(this figure will change every
day) then the up move is likely to continue. But break & sustained
close below this range will be a strong warning signal and it may start to
drift down. Moving down its make or break support range is 22800---22702
it is very strong bounce back range, but break & sustained close below this
range may accelerate the fall and then moving down further it will find support
at 22281 & 22165 and then in the range of 21964----21821---21777---21743---21710---21530 it could bounce back from any
point of this range, but break and sustained close below this range on
the closing basis or even if it stays below 22281 & 22165 on the
closing basis for a longer period of
time then it can most likely to slide
down to 21281---
21137—21021 and this could be the
ultimate bounce back range, but if it moves below 21021(most important point) and sustain on the closing basis then
it will get into the confirmed bear market territory and if it stays longer
below it then it may seek much lower levels, which may please be noted.
Moving up the key resistance points could
be at 23445----23502.64----23519.35----23532----23637.65---23644.80-----23654-----23782----23893.70----23934----24052----24180(some
figures may change daily). It can correct at any of these points then may
resume the up- move or rally may fizzle out also, but if it moves above 23445---23502.64
& 23519.35 and sustain on the closing basis then it will enhance
the chances of extending the up-move further. But please note that it has to move above 23637.65 & 23644.80
and sustain on the closing basis to keep the hope alive of a good up-move
in the year 2025, if it move above 23893.70 and sustain on the
closing basis then it will get a good foothold to build the strong up-move base
and then the up move is likely to extend further for sure and if it moves above
the range of 23934----24052----24180 and sustain on the
closing basis then the long term uptrend threat will dissipate and it may
somewhat ensure that up-move can extend further for sure. Moving up further the
broad resistance points could be at 24280----24630---24753.15---24858----25260---25415,
it could correct at any of these points and then the rally may resume or can fizzle
out also, but if it moves above 24753.15 and sustain on the closing
basis then it may get into strong up-momentum track and if it moves above 25415
and sustain on the closing basis then it could retest its ultimate top of 26277.35 or may go beyond it.
NOTE:- PLEASE NOTE
THAT IF IT MOVES ABOVE 23445 AND SUSTAIN ON THE CLOSING BASIS THEN IT COULD
RETEST ITS RECENT TOP OF 23869.60 OR MAY GO BEYOND IT ALSO.
TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE
DAILY CHART;-
It has higher top & bottom on the line
chart, it is above all its short term moving average on the daily and weekly
chart but below few on the monthly chart, it is mostly above its medium term
moving average on the daily & below few on the weekly chart, and most
importantly it is below almost all its long term moving average except for two
out of nine on the on the daily chart, which is still a severe threat to the
long term uptrend and it is highly concerning as of now. Furthermore all the
important indicators are now mostly in the buy mode, but it is in the overbought
zone, therefore it may correct at times and all together it is giving mixed signal now with slight
tilt towards positive side as of now. Please note that in totality fear of
going down again is not ruled out as yet. So, please keep an eye on the
critical resistance & support points and price action for the further
directional indication.
TECHNICAL
INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-
On the weekly important indicators such as
MACD, ADX & PS is in the sell mode and in the overbought zone also, so it
can correct at times. On the monthly chart it is in overbought/ oversold zone
and with huge negative divergence and with MACD in the sell mode. Therefore,
all together indicators on the weekly chart seems positive but on the monthly
chart it is not yet out of woods and further fall may be on the horizon in coming weeks or months.
IT
IS BUY ON DECLINE MARKET AS OF NOW;-
It is
into deep correction mode for its earlier & recent rise, but it is below
its pullback threshold points, therefore it is buy on decline market now till
it holds the range of 23341---23302---23240(figure
may change) and finally the range of 22800--22700 on the
closing basis, but short trade can also be tried after reasonable rise or near
critical resistance points with strict stop loss, for intraday corrective gains.
STRENGTH:-
1. It is well above its critical
or make or break range of 22702---22800, which is a positive sign.
2. It is making higher top &
bottom on the line chart.
3. It is above its short, medium
& long pullback threshold point for its earlier fall 22245---22479 & 22814 (figure may change), sustained close above it may
help it to extend the up-move.
4. It is above all its short-term
moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for day
is between 23103----23066----23017----22994---22934---22926(figure will change every day), sustained close below this range may
accelerate the down move.
5. Few technical indicators have
turned positive and in the buy mode.
6. It is above its major long
term rising trend line which is placed at 23302
for the month of April-2025, it is a
very good sign.
7. The price action was positive today.
WEAKNESS: -.
1. Volatility and wild swing can
be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market
condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming
days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
2. All the important indicators are negative now on the daily chart and
majorly in the sell mode and in the overbought zone.
3. It is below its most critical
points of 23637.65 & 23644.80, please note that it must stay
above these points to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2025, else it will drift down.
4. It is below its recent short
correction threshold point of 23502.64(figure
may change), sustained close below it will dampen the chance of an up-move.
5. The long-term uptrend is still
in jeopardy as it is almost below all its long-term moving averages except for two
and the whole range is 24180---23239
(figure will change every day) for the day. Please note
that sustained close above 23239 will keep the hope alive of an extended
up-move.
TRADING CALL: --
1. Long
trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 23368---23302 but not below it with a stop
loss of 23230 or can buy if it moves above 23453 and maintain for some time with
a stop loss of 23330 for a
possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please
note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky bet but can be
tried at critical support point with strict stop loss for intraday gain.
2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 23580---23620
with a stop loss of 23680. It could be a risky trade but can be
tried for intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If
it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating
long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the
selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of
trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit
margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any
case.
Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at
all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the
above view.
Kindly note that make your cost your
stop loss in favorable trade
and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated here are of spot
market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
Email--- suranank@gmail.com
