CNX-NIFTY
Open—21758.40—High—22254---Low---21743.65---Close---22161.60 on 7.4.2025.
Support:22124.70/22104.85/21964.60/21875.25/21860.65/21821.05/21777.65/21710.20/21530.20/21448.65/21281.45/21137.20/21021.88/20976.80/20769.50/20291.50/20222.45/19991.85/19839/19333.60.
Resistance:22165/22281/22303.80/22314.70/22502/22525.65/22546/22577.40/22625.30/22676.75/22768.40/22775.70/22786.90/22794.70/22976.85/23047.25/23049.95/23110.80/23263.15/23338.70/23391.65/23426.30/23484.15/23537/23637.65/23644.80/23664/23667.20/23807.30/23816.15/23873.35/23893.70/23938.85/24073.90/24094.20/24099.70/24141.80/24354.55/24472.80/24498.20/24537.60/24694.35/24753.15/24792.3024854.80/24857.75/25078.30/25234.05/25285.55/25333.65/25445.70/25871.35/26277.35/26328/26995/27095/27212/27293/27381.
OVERALL VIEW
ON THE DAILY CHART:
--
It opened with a huge down gap and thereafter had both side moves during the day and mostly in the lower trajectory and finally ended the day with a colossal loss of 742.85 points. The gap it created today is still there and if it makes an effort to fill the gap in next 4—5 trading sessions, which is technically possible then it can come up to 22858, but if it fails to fill the gap within the stipulated time then the chances of filling the gap will recede for the time being, but one day it will fill the gap for sure. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.
The technical setup is terribly weak, it is into deep correction mode for its earlier & recent rise and long term uptrend is severely threatened as it is way below its all the long term moving averages on the daily chart and now below all the important support points also and now moving down further its critical support points could be at 21964----21821---21777.65---21710---21530 it could bounce back from this range but break and sustained close below this range and even if it stays below 22281& 22165( very critical points) on the closing basis for a longer period of time then it can most likely to slide down to 21281--- 21137—21021 and this could be the ultimate bounce back range, but if it moves below 21021 and sustain on the closing basis then it will get into the confirmed bear market territory and if it stays longer below it then it may seek much lower levels, which may please be noted.
Moving up the key resistance points could be at 22165---22281---22702---22725.45---22768.40------22774.75-22775.70---22783.35----22794.70---22798.35------23270---23385----23420.02----23502.64----23591----23637.65---23644.80-----23711-----23842----23893.70----23952----24071----24200(some figures may change daily). If it moves above 22165 & 22281 and sustain on the closing basis then it will get a short foot hold to raise some hope of moving up further, if it moves above the range of 22702---22798.35 then it will gain some strength to extend the up-move further, if it moves above 23270 and sustain on the closing basis then it will raise the hope of extending the up-move further, if it moves above 23420.02 & 23502.64 and sustain on the closing basis then it will get out of recent correction mode and may extend the up-move. But please note that it has to move above 23637.65 & 23644.80 and sustain on the closing basis to keep the hope alive of a good up-move in the year 2025, if it move above 23893.70 and sustain on the closing basis then it will get a good foothold to build the strong up-move base and then the up move is likely to extend further for sure and if it moves above the range of 23952----24071----24200 and sustain on the closing basis then the long term uptrend threat will dissipate and it may somewhat ensure that up-move can extend further for sure. Moving up further the broad resistance points could be at 24280----24630---24753.15---24858----25260---25415, it could correct at any of these points and then the rally may resume or can fizzle out also, but if it moves above 24753.15 and sustain on the closing basis then it may get into strong up-momentum track and if it moves above 25415 and sustain on the closing basis then it could retest its ultimate top of 26277.35 or may go beyond it.
HEAD & SHOULDER PATTERN VISIBLE ON THE DAILY
CHART:- The downside
target of the pattern was in the range of 21850---21510 and it hit a low of
21964.60, so it has almost achieved the downside target upper band. But till it
moves above its neckline of 23893.70 the downside threat is always there and it
could trigger fall again. IT HAS ALMOST ACHIEVED THE HEAD & SHOULDER
TARGET.
TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE
DAILY CHART;-
It has lower top & bottom on the line
and bar chart, it is below all its short term moving average on the daily, weekly
and on the monthly chart, it is below all its medium term moving average on the
daily & below mostly on the weekly chart, and most importantly it is way below
all its long term moving average on the daily chart, which is a severe threat
to the long term uptrend and it is highly concerning as of now. Furthermore almost
all the important indicators are negative now and in the sell mode, but it is in the oversold zone, So, all together it is showing
weak sign as of now so, fear of going down further is distinctly there may be
with short relief rallies at times. Please keep an eye on the critical
resistance & support points and price action for the further directional
indication.
TECHNICAL
INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-
On the weekly chart 5 out of 7
important indicators are positive now; maximum, indicators are in the buy mode,
but MACD & ADX is in the sell mode and it is in the overbought zone also,
so it can further correct from here. On the monthly chart it is in overbought/ oversold
zone and with huge negative divergence and with MACD in the sell mode.
Therefore, all together indicators on the weekly chart seems positive but on
the monthly chart it is not yet out of woods and further fall may be on the horizon in coming weeks or months.
IT
IS SELL ON THE MARKET AS OF NOW;-
It is
into deep correction mode for its earlier & recent rise, it is below its
pullback & correction threshold points, therefore it is sell on the rise
market now till it close above 22800
and sustain on the closing basis, but long trade can also be tried on decline near
critical support points with strict stop
loss, for intraday corrective gains. Aggressive traders can try long trade if
it moves above 22281 and sustain on
the closing basis with proper stop losses.
STRENGTH:-
1. It is in the oversold zone, so it may give a short relief rally
2. It is holding its crucial
support range of 21964----21821---21777.65---21710---21530.
WEAKNESS: -.
1. Volatility and wild swing can
be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market
condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming
days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
2. All the important indicators are negative now on the daily chart and
majorly in the sell mode.
3. It is below its most critical
points of 23637.65 & 23644.80, please note that it must stay
above these points to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2025, else it will drift down.
4. It has lower top & bottom on
the line & bar chart.
5. It is below its recent short
& deep correction threshold point of 23502.64
& 23420.02(figure may change), sustained
close below these points will help it to slide down further.
6. The long-term uptrend is still
in jeopardy as it is way below all its long-term moving averages and the whole range
is 24200---23270 (figure will change
every day) for
the day. Please note that sustained
close below 23270 may drag it down further.
7. It is below its major long
term rising trend line which is placed at 23305
for the month of April-2025, it is a
very weak sign.
8. It is decisively below its
major long term rising trend line on the daily chart which is placed at 23208(figure will change every day) for
the day.
9. It is below its short, medium and
long pullback threshold point for its earlier fall 22245----22479
& 22814 (figure
may change), sustained
close below these points may dampen the chances of an up-move.
10. It is below all its short-term
moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for day
is between 23274----23115----23082----23021---23017---22996(figure will change every day), sustained close below this range may
accelerate the down move.
11. It is below its crucial point
of 22165
& 22281, if it sustain below it for a long time period on the closing
basis then it is likely to hit the range of 21281---
21137—21021.
12. The price action was negative today.
TRADING CALL: --
1. Long
trade can be tried on decline near 21965 but not below it with a stop loss of 21880 for a
possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please
note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky bet but can be
tried at critical support point with strict stop loss for intraday gain.
2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 22350---22400 with a stop loss of 22480 or can sell if it moves below 21960 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 22050. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.
Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at
all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the
above view.
Kindly note that make your cost your
stop loss in favorable trade
and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated here are of spot
market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
Email--- suranank@gmail.com
