CNX-NIFTY
Open—23190.40—High—23214.70---Low---22857.45---Close---22904.45 on 4.4.2025.
Support:22794.70/22786.90/22775.70/22768.40/22676.75/22625.30/22577.40/22546/22525.65/22502/22314.70/22303.80/22281/22165/22124.70/22104.85/21964.60/21875.25/21860.65/21821.05/21777.65/21710.20/21530.20/21448.65/21281.45/21137.20/21021.88/20976.80/20769.50/20291.50/20222.45/19991.85/19839/19333.60.
Resistance:22976.85/23047.25/23049.95/23110.80/23263.15/23338.70/23391.65/23426.30/23484.15/23537/23637.65/23644.80/23664/23667.20/23807.30/23816.15/23873.35/23893.70/23938.85/24073.90/24094.20/24099.70/24141.80/24354.55/24472.80/24498.20/24537.60/24694.35/24753.15/24792.3024854.80/24857.75/25078.30/25234.05/25285.55/25333.65/25445.70/25871.35/26277.35/26328/26995/27095/27212/27293/27381.
OVERALL VIEW
ON THE DAILY CHART:
--
It opened on a negative note and thereafter
had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day with a huge loss
of 345.65 points. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, and this
is not a good sign for a steady market.
The technical setup is terribly weak, as it has lower top & bottom on the line & bar chart; it is into deep correction mode for its earlier & recent rise, furthermore it is below all its critical support points or range of 23305----23285----23208----23097----22983(figures may change), which is major long term rising trend line for the month of April—2025 on the monthly chart, last long term moving average, major long term rising trend line on the daily chart for the day, recent fall pullback threshold point and finally earlier fall long pullback threshold point respectively. Please note that if it does not bounce back above the aforesaid range in a shortest possible time then further fall looks inevitable and moving down further it’s major and most critical or make or break support range is between22798.35---22794.70---22783.35---22775.70---22774.75---22768.40---22725.45---22702, it could sharply bounce back from this range and may resume the up-move again, but break & sustained close below this range may witness an accelerated fall and then the next strong support points or range could be 22281—22165---21964----21821---21777.65---21710 and it is expected to bounce back from this range too, but break and sustained close below this range can drag it down lower, here please note that even if it stays below 22281& 22165( very critical points) on the closing basis for a longer period of time then also it is most likely to slide down to 21281--- 21137—21021 and this could be the ultimate bounce back range, but if it moves below 21021 and sustain on the closing basis then it will get into the confirmed bear market territory and if it stays longer below it then it may seek much lower levels, which may please be noted.
Moving up the key resistance points could be at 22983---23097---23208----23285---23305----23420.02----23502.64----23521----23637.65---23644.80-----23731-----23861----23893.70----23960----24077----24205(some figures may change daily). If it moves above the range of 22983---23097---23208----23285---23305 and sustain on the closing basis then it will provide some strength for continuation of the up-move , if it moves above 23420.02 & 23502.64 and sustain on the closing basis then it will get out of recent correction mode and may extend the up-move. But please note that it has to move above 23637.65 & 23644.80 and sustain on the closing basis to keep the hope alive of a good up-move in the year 2025, if it move above 23893.70 and sustain on the closing basis then it will get a good foothold to build the strong up-move base and then the up move is likely to extend further for sure and if it moves above the range of 23960----24077----24205 and sustain on the closing basis then the long term uptrend threat will dissipate and it may somewhat ensure that up-move can extend further for sure. Moving up further the broad resistance points could be at 24280----24630---24753.15---24858----25260---25415, it could correct at any of these points and then the rally may resume or can fizzle out also, but if it moves above 24753.15 and sustain on the closing basis then it may get into strong up-momentum track and if it moves above 25415 and sustain on the closing basis then it could retest its ultimate top of 26277.35 or may go beyond it.
HEAD & SHOULDER PATTERN VISIBLE ON THE DAILY
CHART:- The downside
target of the pattern was in the range of 21850---21510 and it hit a low of
21964.60, so it has almost achieved the downside target upper band. But till it
moves above its neckline of 23893.70 the downside threat is always there and it
could trigger fall again.
TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE
DAILY CHART;-
It has lower top & bottom on the line
and bar chart, it is below all its short term moving average on the daily &
weekly and below mostly on monthly chart, it is below all its medium term
moving average on the daily & below mostly on the weekly chart, and most
importantly it is below all its long term moving average on the daily chart,
which is a severe threat to the long term uptrend and it is highly concerning as
of now. Furthermore few indicators has turned negative and in the sell mode,
but few are still positive with MACD still in buy mode and it is in the
neutral/overbought zone, So, all together it is showing weak sign as of now so, fear of going
down further is distinctly there. Please keep an eye on the critical resistance
& support points and price action for the further directional indication.
TECHNICAL
INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-
On the weekly chart 5 out of 7
important indicators are positive now; maximum, indicators are in the buy mode,
but MACD & ADX is in the sell mode and it is in the overbought zone also,
so it can further correct from here. On the monthly chart it is in overbought/ oversold
zone and with huge negative divergence and with MACD in the sell mode.
Therefore, all together indicators on the weekly chart seems positive but on
the monthly chart it is not yet out of woods and further fall may be on the horizon in coming weeks or months.
IT
IS SELL ON THE MARKET AS OF NOW;-
It is
into deep correction mode for its earlier & recent rise, it is below its
pullback & correction threshold points, therefore it is sell on the rise
market now till it close above 23342
and sustain on the closing basis, but long trade can also be tried on decline near
critical support points with strict stop
loss, for intraday corrective gains.
STRENGTH: -
1. All the important indicators
are positive on the daily chart and majorly in the buy mode.
2. It is still above its short
& medium pullback threshold point for its earlier fall 22400 & 22648 (figure may change), sustained close above these points can help it to keep the hope alive
for an up-move.
WEAKNESS: -.
1. Volatility and wild swing can
be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market
condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming
days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
2. It is in the overbought zone, and few indicators
are in sell mode also. So the correction can extend further.
3. It is below its most critical
points of 23637.65 & 23644.80, please note that it must stay
above these points to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2025, else it will drift down.
4. It has lower top & bottom
on the line & bar chart.
5. It is below its recent short
& deep correction threshold point of 23502.64
& 23420.02(figure may change), sustained
close below these points will help it to slide down further.
6. The long-term uptrend is still
in jeopardy as it is below all its long-term moving averages and the whole range
is 24204---23285 (figure will change
every day) for
the day. Please note that sustained
close below 23285 may drag it down further.
7 It is below its recent fall
pullback threshold point of 23096.32(figure
may change), sustained close below this may weaken the chances of an
up-move.
8. It is below its major long
term rising trend line which is placed at 23305
for the month of April-2025, it is a
very weak sign.
9. It is decisively below its
major long term rising trend line on the daily chart which is placed at 23208(figure will change every day) for
the day.
10. It is below its earlier fall
long pullback threshold point of 22983(figure
may change), sustained close below this may drag it down further.
11. It is below all its short-term
moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for day
is between 23392----23306----23211----23197---23107---23014(figure will change every day), sustained close below this range may
accelerate the down move.
12. The price action was weak today.
TRADING CALL: --
1. Long
trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 22800---22750 but not below it with a stop
loss of 22680 for a
possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please
note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky bet but can be
tried at critical support point with strict stop loss for intraday gain.
2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 23100---23150 with a stop loss of 23230 or can sell if it moves below 22850 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 22920. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.
Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at
all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the
above view.
Kindly note that make your cost your
stop loss in favorable trade
and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated here are of spot
market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
Email--- suranank@gmail.com
