CNX-BANK NIFTY
Open—50910---High—51661.60---Low—50906.65---Close—51597.35 on 3.4.2025.
Support:51138.90/51133.20/51000.90/50947.70/50860.20/50841.90/50641.75/50438.30/50382.10/50369.40/50194.30/49974.75/49904.40/49836.10/49787.10/49688.80/49654.65/49459/49300/49162.65/49057.40/48972.55/48906.05/48839.10/48734.35/48636.45/48525.60/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/48074.05/47898.35/47844.15/47363.40/46983.75/46077.85/45828.80/45661.75/44633.85/44429/43600.25/43345.45/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40.
Resistance:51693.50/51749.45/51749.45/51979.75/52354.85/52493.95/52577.50/52760.20/52782.75/52794.95/53357.70/53531.30/53792.85/53888.30/54247.70/54467.35/54593/54604/54772/54815/54924/55097/55209/55444/55646/55740/55827/56135/56255.
OVERALL,
VIEW: --
It opened on a negative note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day with a gain of 249.30 points. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.
The technical setup has improved a lot but it is still dicey because it has made higher top on the line chart today but yet to make a higher bottom, therefore watch out till it makes higher bottom else it may end the up-move, but the good and strongly positive thing is that it is still holding on to its most crucial support points of 51345(figure will change every day) which is the top long term average, above its recent fall pullback threshold point of 51053.98(figure may Change), above its recent correction threshold point of 51034.67(figure may change) and finally way above its most important & critical points of 50841.90 & 50860.20, please note that it is essential to stay above these points to keep the chances of a continued up move alive in the year 2025. Please note that as long as it manages to hold the above points on the closing basis it can extend the up-move. But break & sustained close below each aforesaid points will weaken it and may trigger fall again and then it could head down to its first make or break bottom of 50369.40, it is a strong bounce back point, but if it break & sustain below it on the closing basis then it could drift down to its second and most important make or break bottom of 49654.65 this is the ultimate bounce back point, but break and sustained close below it may accelerate the fall and the up move may end for a while and it will also put the long term uptrend in potential danger. Moving down further broad support points could be at 49368---48731---48574, it could bounce back from any of these points, but break and sustained close below 48574 can drag it down to the range of 47756---47745---47702, this is a very strong bounce back range, but break & sustained close below this range can take it down further to the range of 46437---46077 and sustained close below this range can drag it down to 44500 levels or lower, which may please be noted.
Similarly moving up the broad resistance points could be at 51752----51800 (some figures may change), it can correct at any of these points,
but if it moves above 51800 and sustain on the closing basis
then it could retest its recent high of 52063.95
or may go beyond it also. Please note that if it sustains above 52063.95 on the closing basis then the next broad resistance or
target points could be at 52429----52652----52871---53888----53114.46,
it could correct at any of these points and then may resume the up-move or
rally can fizzle out also, but if it moves above 52652 & 53114.46 and sustain on the closing basis then it could
retest one of its top of 53888.30
and its ultimate top of 54467.35 or may go beyond it also.
IMPORTANT NOTE:-The overall parameters are looking good for the continuation of the up-move,
as it has made higher top today, but yet to make a higher bottom on the line chart,
which is concerning therefore still there is a chance that the rally may abruptly end till it
makes a higher bottom. But I once
again reiterate that till it holds the points as mentioned above chances of the
up-move will be strongly alive.
TECHNICAL INDICATORS
PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-
It has higher top on the line chart today, but yet to make
higher bottom, so watch out till it makes higher bottom, but it is above all
its short, medium & long term moving averages on the daily, weekly &
monthly chart, which is good sign for the continuation of the up-move.
Furthermore almost all the important technical indicators are positive now with
majorly in the buy mode, but with negative divergence and it is in the overbought zone on the daily chart, so, it
may correct at times, but in totality it is emitting positive signal therefore likely to move up further, provided
it holds the key support points as mentioned above. So, please keep an eye on the critical
resistance & support points and price action for further directional
indication.
TECHNICAL
INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART: -
On the weekly chart almost all the indicators are positive now and majorly in the buy mode and most importantly MACD & ADX has turned into the buy mode, but it is in the overbought zone, so it can correct at times. On the monthly chart it is in overbought/ neutral zone and with huge negative divergence and with MACD in the sell mode. Therefore, all together indicators on the weekly chart seems positive for the up-move , but on the monthly chart it is not yet out of woods therefore further fall may be on the horizon in coming weeks or months.
IT IS BUY ON DECLINE MARKET AS OF NOW;-
It is into deep correction mode for its earlier rise, but it is above all its pullback threshold points, therefore it is buy on decline market now till it holds the range of 51345---51053.98---51034.67 and then finally it holds 50860.20 & 50841.90 on the closing basis, but short trade can also be tried after a reasonable rise and near critical resistance points with strict stop loss, for intraday corrective gains.
STRENGTH: -
1. Almost all
the important technical indicators are positive now with majorly in the buy
mode.
2. It is
above all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the
important average range for day is between 51345--51209--50970---50574---50343----49863(figure will change every day), sustained close above this range may witness an extended up-move.
3. It is
above its medium & long pullback threshold point of 49162.65----49300
(figure may change), sustained close above these points can help it to
extend the up-move.
4. It is above
its most crucial bottom of 50369.40 & 49654.65, if it sustains above these on the closing basis
then the up-move is likely to extend further for sure.
5. It is above its recent fall pullback
threshold point of 51053.98
(figure may change),
sustained close above this may help it to extend the up-move.
6. It is
above its recent correction threshold point of 51034.67(figure may change).
7. It is above
its most critical points of 50860.20 & 50841.90; please note that it
must stay above these points to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2025,
else it will drift down.
8. It is above
all its long-term moving averages and the whole range is between 51345---49693
(the range will change every day). Please note that if it sustain above 51345(figure will change every day) on the closing basis then the up-move is
likely to extend for sure.
WEAKNESS: -
1. Volatility
and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign
for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically
in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
2. It is in
the overbought zone on the daily chart, so, it can correct at times.
3. It has
made higher top today on the line chart, but yet to make higher bottom.
4. It is showing negative divergence in the RSI
now on the daily chart.
5. The price action was mixed today.
TRADING CALL: --
1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range 51400----51350 but not below it with a stop loss of 51010 for a possible
intraday gain, else avoid.
2. Short
trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 51975—52050 with
a stop loss of 52150. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for
intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up
with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long
position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the
selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of
trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit
margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any
case.
Disclaimer:-The view
expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any
way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that
make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and
then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated
here are of spot market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Email—suranank@gmail.com
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
