CNX-NIFTY
Open—23341.10—High—23565.15---Low---23136.40---Close---23165.30 on 1.4.2025.
Support:23110.80/23049.95/23047.25/22976.85/22794.70/22786.90/22775.70/22768.40/22676.75/22625.30/22577.40/22546/22525.65/22502/22314.70/22303.80/22281/22165/22124.70/22104.85/21964.60/21875.25/21860.65/21821.05/21777.65/21710.20/21530.20/21448.65/21281.45/21137.20/21021.88/20976.80/20769.50/20291.50/20222.45/19991.85/19839/19333.60.
Resistance:23263.15/23338.70/23391.65/23426.30/23484.15/23537/23637.65/23644.80/23664/23667.20/23807.30/23816.15/23873.35/23893.70/23938.85/24073.90/24094.20/24099.70/24141.80/24354.55/24472.80/24498.20/24537.60/24694.35/24753.15/24792.3024854.80/24857.75/25078.30/25234.05/25285.55/25333.65/25445.70/25871.35/26277.35/26328/26995/27095/27212/27293/27381.
OVERALL VIEW
ON THE DAILY CHART:
--
It opened on a negative note and thereafter
had both side moves during the day and finally ended, the day with a loss of 353.70 points. Looking at today’s down move further fall is very much
likely, so be cautious. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility,
which is not a good sign for a steady market.
The technical setup got a severe jolt
today. as it has made lower top & bottom on the line & bar chart today;
it slipped into correction mode for its
recent rise as it closed below its short & deep correction threshold point
of 23502.64 & 23420.02(figure may change), it is below its
recent pullback threshold point of 23309.44(figure may Change), and
most importantly it fell below its long term rising trend-line which is placed
at 23303 for the month of April-2025 and also fell below all its
long term moving average on the daily chart and the last such average is placed
at 23292(figure will change every day) for the day, so all together it
is showing terribly weak sign, therefore further fall looks inevitable provided
it does not stage a sharp pullback and moves above certain critical resistance
points in a shortest possible time. Moving down further from here it’s major
and most critical or make or break support range is between22798.35---22794.70---22783.35---22775.70---22774.75---22768.40---22725.45,
it could sharply bounce back from this range and may resume the broad
up-move again, but break & sustained close below this range may witness an
accelerated fall and then the next strong support points or range could be 22281—22165---21821---21777.65---21710 and it is expected to bounce
back from this range too, but break and sustained close below this range can
drag it down to 21281--- 21137--21021, this is the ultimate
bounce back range, but if it moves below 21021
and sustain on the closing basis then it will get into the confirmed bear
market territory and if it stays longer below it then it may seek much lower
levels, which may please be noted. It is into short
term correction mode but long term trend is under severe threat as of now.
Moving up the key resistance points could
be at 23292---23303---23309.44----23420.02----23502.64----23528----23637.65---23644.80-----23758-----23888----23893.70----23966----24083----24210(some
figures may change daily). If it moves above 23292---23303---23309.44 and
sustain on the closing basis then it will get strength to move up further, if
it moves above 23420.02----23502.64 then it will get out of recent
correction mode and may extend the up-move. But please note that it has to move above 23637.65 & 23644.80
and sustain on the closing basis to keep the hope alive of a good up-move
in the year 2025, else it may start to drift down, if it move
above 23893.70 and sustain on the closing basis then it will get a good foothold
to build the strong up-move base and then the up move is likely to extend
further for sure and if it moves above the range of 23966----24083----24210 and sustain on the closing basis then the long term uptrend threat
will dissipate and it may somewhat ensure that up-move can extend further for
sure. Moving up further the broad resistance points could be at 24280----24630---24753.15---24858----25260---25415,
it could correct at any of these points and then the rally may resume or can fizzle
out also, but if it moves above 24753.15 and sustain on the closing
basis then it may get into strong up-momentum track and if it moves above 25415
and sustain on the closing basis then it could retest its ultimate top of 26277.35 or may go beyond it.
HEAD & SHOULDER PATTERN VISIBLE ON THE DAILY
CHART:- The downside
target of the pattern was in the range of 21850---21510 and it hit a low of
21964.60, so it has almost achieved the downside target upper band. But till it
moves above its neckline of 23893.70 the downside threat is always there and it
could trigger fall again.
TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE
DAILY CHART;-
It has made lower top & bottom on the
line and bar chart, it is still above few of its short term moving average on the
daily, weekly and monthly chart, it is above few of its medium term moving
average on the daily & weekly chart, but most importantly it is below all its
long term moving average on the daily chart, which is still a severe threat to
the long term uptrend and it is highly concerning as of now. But please note
that almost all the important technical indicators are still positive and majorly
in the buy mode , but in the overbought zone now, so, it may correct
at times, it corrected and the correction may extend further, so please keep a watch that how it pans out in
next one or two days. All together it is showing weak signal as of now therefore
likely to go down further in coming times , provided it does not stage a sharp
bounce back and move above few critical resistance points as mentioned in the
above paragraph. So, please keep an eye on the critical resistance & support
points and price action for the further directional indication.
TECHNICAL
INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-
On the weekly almost all important indicators
are positive now; maximum, indicators are in the buy mode and with positive divergence,
but MACD still in the sell mode and it is in the overbought zone, so it can further
correct from here. On the monthly chart it is in overbought/ oversold zone and
with huge negative divergence and with MACD in the sell mode. Therefore, all
together indicators on the weekly chart seems positive but on the monthly chart
it is not yet out of woods and further fall may be on the horizon in coming weeks or months.
IT
IS SELL ON THE MARKET AS OF NOW;-
It is
into deep correction mode for its earlier & recent rise, it is below its
pullback & correction threshold points, therefore it is sell on the rise
market now till it close above 23342 and sustain on the closing basis, but long
trade can also be tried on decline near critical support points with strict stop loss, for
intraday corrective gains.
STRENGTH: -
1. All the important indicators
are positive on the daily chart and majorly in the buy mode.
2. It is above its short, medium
& long pullback threshold point (for its earlier falls) of 22400---22648 & 22983 (figure
may change), sustained close above these points can help it to extend the
up-move.
3 It is above half of its
short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average
range for day is between 23426----23388----23276----23128---23092---22867(figure will change every day), sustained close above this range may help
to extend the up-move.
WEAKNESS: -.
1. Volatility and wild swing can
be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market
condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming
days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
2. It is in the deep overbought zone & with
negative divergence on the daily chart, so the correction can extend further..
3. It is below its recent fall
pullback threshold point of 23309.44(figure
may change), sustained close below this may dim the chance of up-move.
4. It is below its most critical
points of 23637.65 & 23644.80, please note that it must stay
above these points to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2025, else it will drift down.
5. It has made lower top &
bottom on the line & bar chart.
6. It is below its recent short
& deep correction threshold point of 23502.64
& 23420.02(figure may change), sustained
close below these points will help it to slide down further.
7. The long-term uptrend is still
in jeopardy as it is below all its long-term moving averages and the range is 24204---23292 (figure will change every day) for the day. Please note that sustained close below 23292 may end the chances of an
up-move for good.
8. The price action was weak today.
TRADING CALL: --
1. Long
trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 23058----23000, if it holds this range for
some time then with a stop loss of 22935 for a
possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please
note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky bet but can be
tried at critical support point with strict stop loss for intraday gain.
2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 23380---23410
with a stop loss of 23470 or can sell if it moves below 23136
and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 23210. It could be a
risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If
it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating
long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near
the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type
of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable
profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested
in any case.
Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at
all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the
above view.
Kindly note that make your cost your
stop loss in favorable trade
and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated here are of spot
market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
Email--- suranank@gmail.com
