CNX-NIFTY
Open—22857.20—High—22921---Low---22720.30--Close---22795.90 on 21.2.2025.
Support:22794.70/22786.90/22775.70/22768.40/22525.65/22303.80/21875.25/21860.25/21821.05/21777.65/21710.20/21530.20/21281.45/21137.20/20976.80.
Resistance:22976.85/23047.25/23110.80/23263.15/23338.70/23391.65/23426.30/23484.15/23537/23637.65/23644.80/23664/23667.20/23816.15/23873.35/23893.70/23938.85/24073.90/24094.20/24099.70/24141.80/24354.55/24472.80/24498.20/24537.60/24694.35/24753.15/24792.3024854.80/24857.75/25078.30/25234.05/25285.55/25333.65/25445.70/25871.35/26277.35/26328/26995/27095/27212/27293/27381.
OVERALL VIEW
ON THE DAILY CHART:
--
It opened on a negative note and thereafter
had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day with a small loss
of 117.25 points. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, this is
not a good sign for a steady market.
The technical setup on the daily chart is terribly
weak, as it is below all its recent critical support points and below all its
short, medium & long term moving averages on the daily chart. It is
into deep correction mode for its earlier and recent rise, it is also
below all its pullback threshold points and most importantly today it has
broken its major long term rising trend line for the first time drawn from the
bottom of 7511.10 made in the year 2020, this is a very significant
development and if it does not bounce back above the rising trend line and
sustain then it may witness an accelerated fall, the trend line it is placed at
22890(figure will change and inch up every day) for the day and on the
monthly chart for Feb-2025 it is placed at 22950 and for the
month of March-2025 it is placed at 23150. So, all together it is
exhibiting grossly weak undertone, and therefore further fall looks inevitable
in the coming days. But despite breaking the trend line it is still holding its most important and critical range of 22794.70---22786.90---22768.40
& 22720 so, in view of the trend line break it is likely to break this
critical range in coming days for sure and then the next strong support points could
be at 22460---22350----22281—22165---21821---21777.65---21710---21530 and it could bounce back from
any of these points, but break and sustained close below 22281 & 22165 can drag
it down to the range of 21281---21137
or lower. Please note that if it moves below 21021.88 and sustain on
the closing basis then it will get into confirm bear market territory and most
importantly if it stays longer below it then it may witness extreme pain
price-wise & time-wise both. It is important
to mention here that as of now it is also weak on the weekly & monthly
chart and its technical parameters therefore it is not yet out of woods for the long term and
may witness moderate to sharp fall in coming weeks & months, but it has to
reviewed at regular interval for any potential positive/negative change. The
short and medium-term trend is down and the long-term uptrend is severely threatened
and in jeopardy now.
Similarly moving up the key resistance
points would be at 22980.77----23124---23141---23220-----23446---23563.70----23637.65----23644.80---23687----23893.70----23944----24062----24068----24192----24200(some
figures may change daily). Please note that, if it moves above 22980.77(
it is a short pullback threshold point) and sustain on the closing basis
then it may give some hope to move up further, if it moves above ----23124---23141---23220
and sustain on the closing basis then it may gain some strength to extend
the up-move, if it moves above 23446 and sustain on the closing basis
then it will strengthen further, if it moves above 23563.70 which is a long pullback threshold point then
it will enhance the chances of a continued up-move but to keep the hope of
strong up move alive in the 2025 it has to move above 23637.65----23644.80
and sustain on the closing basis, else it may start to drift down, if it
move above 23893.70 and sustain on the closing basis then it will get a good
foothold to build the strong up-move and then the up move is likely to extend
further for sure and if it moves above the range of 24068----24192----24200 and
sustain on the closing basis then the long term uptrend threat will dissipate
and it may somewhat ensure that up-move can extend further for sure. But to get
good strength for the continuation of the up-move and to get into strong
up-momentum track it has to move above 24481.42---24625.43---24753.15---24857.75
& 25078.30 (figure may change) particularly above 24753.15 and
sustain on the closing basis.
HEAD & SHOULDER
PATTERN VISIBLE ON THE DAILY CHART:-It is still below its
neckline which is placed at 23893.70 and if it sustain below it on the closing
basis then the maximum downside target could be in the range of 21850---21510.
Please note that this pattern will be partly negated if it moves above 23893.70
and sustain and it will be fully negated
if it moves above 24857.75 & 25078.35. This is a very powerful pattern and
rarely fails. It is therefore suggested that do not remain short if it closes
above the neckline of 23893.70 and sustain, similarly do not remain long if it
closes below it.
TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE
DAILY CHART;-
It still has lower top & bottom on the
line & bar chart , it is below all
its short term moving averages on the daily & weekly chart and below some
on the monthly chart also, it is below all its medium term moving average on
the daily chart & below few averages on the weekly chart too and most
importantly it is below all its long term moving average on the daily chart,
which is a severe threat to the long
term uptrend and is highly concerning
and jeopardized the long term uptrend for now. Furthermore, almost all out of
seven important technical indicators are negative now and maximum are in sell
mode, but the slight comforting thing is that it has slight positive with
slight positive divergence and in the oversold zone. Therefore, broadly it is emitting weak signal, so, further fall looks inevitable
in coming times may be with-in-between short relief rally at times. Please keep
an eye on the price action for further directional indication.
TECHNICAL
INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-
On the weekly
chart almost all indicators are negative, sell mode is on, there is huge
negative divergence but it is in the oversold zone and may stage a recovery but
that may not last. On the monthly chart it is in overbought zone and with huge
negative divergence and MACD has triggered sell. Therefore, all together
indicators on the weekly & monthly chart as of now indicates that it is not
yet out of woods and further fall is very much on the horizon in coming weeks
and months and the down move is on. So, keep a watch on the price action for
further directional indication.
IT
IS SELL ON THE RISE MARKET AS OF NOW;-
It is
into deep correction mode for its earlier & recent rise, and it is below
all its pullback threshold point
therefore it is sell on the rise
market now in general , but long trade
can also be tried on the decline near critical support points with strict stop loss , for intraday corrective
gains. It is suggested to avoid long trade in general till it closes above 23220 and sustain on the closing basis.
STRENGTH: -
1. Two out of seven technical
indicators are positive on the daily chart with slight positive divergence and
in the oversold zone.
WEAKNESS: -.
1. Please note that almost all indicators
on the weekly chart are negative indicates oversold condition, sell mode is on
and negative divergence and finally on the monthly chart it indicates
overbought condition and negative divergence.
2. Volatility and wild swing can
be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market
condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming
days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
3. It is into correction deep mode
now as it closed below some of the correction threshold points of 26043.29----25917.64---25714.81----25098.32-----25064.27-----24625.43-----24521.63---
24481.42-----24047.39----23669.17---23566.49 (figures may change). The other
important correction threshold point is 21848.52 (figure may change) and if it sustain below these points
correction will deepen.
4. Five out of seven technical
indicators are negative on the daily chart with all in the sell mode.
5. It is below all its long-term
moving averages on the daily chart therefore severely threatened the uptrend.
6. It is below its short, medium
& long pullback threshold point of 22980.77---23228.67---23563.70
(figure may change), sustained close
below these points can weaken the chances of an up-move and it starts to moves
down.
7. It is below its most critical
points of 23644.80 & 23637.65; please
note that it must stay above these points to keep up the up momentum going in
the year 2025.
8 It is below almost all its
short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average
range for day is between 23217----23141----23124----23010---23001---22936(figure will change every day), sustained close below this range may
accelerate the down move.
9. It still has lower top &
bottom on the line & bar chart.
10. The price action was negative
today.
TRADING CALL: --
1. Long
trade can be tried on decline near 22720
but not below it with a stop loss of 22680 for a possible intraday gain,
else avoid. Please note that long trade
in a corrective market could be a risky affair but can be tried near critical
support points for intraday gains.
2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 22900----22950
with a stop loss of 23020 or can sell if it moves below 22720 with
a stop loss of 22810. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for
intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If
it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating
long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near
the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type
of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable
profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested
in any case.
Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at
all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the
above view.
Kindly note that make your cost your
stop loss in favorable trade
and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated here are of spot
market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
Email--- suranank@gmail.com
