CNX-BANK NIFTY
Open—48880.40---High—49319---Low—48525.60---Close—49258.90 on 17.2.2025.
Support:49057.40/48636.45/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/48074.05/47898.35/47363.40/46983.75/46077.85/45828.80/45661.75/44633.85/44429/43600.25/43345.45/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40.
Resistance:49459/49654.65/49688.80/49787.10/49836.10/49904.40/49974.75/50194.30/50369.40/50382.10/50438.30/50841.90/50860.20/50947.70/51000.90/51133.20/51138.90/51693.50/51749.45/51749.45/52354.85/52493.95/52577.50/52760.20/52782.75/52794.95/53357.70/53531.30/53792.85/53888.30/54247.70/54467.35/54593/54604/54772/54815/54924/55097/55209/55444/55646/55740/55827/56135/56255.
OVERALL,
VIEW: --
It opened on a negative note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day with a gain of 159.45 points. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.
The technical setup on the daily
chart is very weak, as it is below all its recent critical support points and
below all its short, medium & long term moving averages on the daily chart. It is into
deep correction mode for its earlier
and recent rise, it is below its medium & long pullback threshold point.
So, all together it is exhibiting grossly weak undertone, and therefore further
fall looks inevitable in the coming days. But the silver lining is that it is
above its short pullback threshold point of 49025.06(figure may change) therefore as long as it holds it there
is a slim chance that it can move up further. But looking at the overall setup
as of now it seems that the up-move is not going to last long and can fizzle
out abruptly. So, moving down it will find support at 48913---48504---48404(it
bounced back from this range today) and finally the critical support range is 47898.35---47844.15 & 47756, which is a strong bounce back range. But please note that break &
sustained close below these points and particularly below 47756 can drag it down to the range of 46437---46077 and sustained close below this range can drag it down
to 44500 levels or lower. It is important to mention here that it
will get a foothold to build base for a continued up-move once it closes above 49654.65
and sustain. It is important to
mention here that as of now it is also weak on the weekly & monthly chart
technical parameters therefore it
is not yet out of woods for the long
term and may witness moderate to sharp fall in coming weeks & months, but
it has to reviewed at regular interval for any potential positive/negative
change. The short and
medium-term trend is down and the long-term uptrend is severely threatened and
in jeopardy now.
Similarly moving up the key resistance points would be at 49270.57---49408---49654.65----49850---49981.52----50232.82----50581----50673----50841.90---50860.20----50913-----50995---51252-----51340(some
figure will change daily). Please note that, if it moves above 49270.57
& 49408 and sustain on the closing basis, then it may give ray of hope
to move up further, if it moves above 49654.65
and sustain on the closing basis then it may get a good foothold which may help
it to build up base for a good up-move, if it moves above 49850 and sustain then it may strengthen further, if it moves above
49981.52 & 50232.82 then it will
get out of recent corrective mode and up-move may extend further, if it moves above
50841.90 & 50860.20 and sustain
on the closing basis then it will keep the hope alive for the up move to
continue in the year 2025 and if it moves above the range of 50913-----50995---51252-----51340 and
sustain on the closing basis then the long term uptrend threat will dissipate
and then it is likely to extend the up-move for sure. But please note that it
may get good strength for the continuation of the up-move if it moves above 52679.47 & 52920.42 (figure may
change daily) and sustain on the closing basis and finally to get back into
the strong up-momentum track again it has to move above 53142.71----53331.55----53370.43----53500.30(figure may change) and
sustain on the closing basis. Please note that if it moves above 53142.71
and sustain on the closing basis then it could retest its all-time high of 54467.35
or may go beyond it also.
TECHNICAL INDICATORS
PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-
It is making lower top & bottom on the line chart , it is below all its short term moving averages
on the daily & weekly chart and below few
on the monthly chart also, it is below all its medium term moving average on
the daily chart & below few averages on the weekly chart too and most
importantly it is below all its long term moving average on the daily chart,
which is a severe threat to the long
term uptrend and it is highly concerning
and jeopardized the long term uptrend for now. Furthermore four out of seven
important technical indicators are negative now with all in the sell mode, but the slight comforting thing is that three
out of seven indicators are positive also and two are in the buy mode. Therefore, in totality
it is emitting mixed signal now but broadly towards weakness as of now and may
move down further in coming day if it does not bounce back above 49655 and
sustain on the closing basis in the shortest possible time. Please keep an eye on the price action for
further directional indication.
TECHNICAL
INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART: -
On the weekly chart almost all the indicators are negative now, it is in the sell signal in maximum indicators, and huge negative divergence is there but is in the oversold/neutral zone. On the monthly chart it is in overbought zone and with huge negative divergence and with MACD in the sell mode. Therefore, all together indicators on the weekly & monthly chart as of now indicates that it is not yet out of woods and further fall is very much on the horizon in coming weeks and months and down move is on. So keep a watch on the price action for further directional indication.
IT IS SELL ON THE RISE MARKET AS OF NOW;-
It is into deep correction mode for its earlier & recent rise, and pullback threshold point is also broken therefore it is sell on the rise market now in general , but long trade can also be tried on the decline near critical support points with strict stop loss , for intraday corrective gains. It is suggested to avoid long trade in general till it closes above 49655 and sustain on the closing basis
STRENGTH: -
1. Three out
of seven technical indicators are positive on the daily chart and two are in
the buy mode and one in the oversold zone.
2. It is above
its short pullback threshold point of 49025.06 (figure may change), sustained
close above it may raise some hope of moving up further.
WEAKNESS: -
1. Volatility
and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign
for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically
in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
2. Please
note that indicators, on the weekly chart it is in the sell mode in maximum indicators,
in overbought zone and with huge negative divergence & on the monthly chart,
indicating overbought condition and with huge negative divergence and triggered
sell mode also.
3. It is
below few of its corrective threshold points of 53500.30-----53370.43---53331.55----52920.42---52487.43---52098.30------51549.93-----50725.73----50232.12----49981.52--- (figure may change) and if it sustains below these points
then it may extend the down move. The other important key correction threshold points
are 45416.49 (figure may change)
4. Four out
of seven important technical indicators are negative with three in the sell
mode and one is in the overbought zone.
5. The long-term
uptrend is in jeopardy as it is below all its long-term moving averages.
6. It is below
its most critical points of 50860.20 & 50841.90; please note that it
must stay above these points to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2025,
else it will drift down sharply.
7 It is
below all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the
important average range for day is between 49763---49540---49539---49525-----49479----49351(figure will change every day), sustained close below this range may accelerate the down move.
8. It is below
its crucial bottom of 49654.65.
9. It is
below its medium & long term pullback threshold point of 49270.57----49408
(figure may change), sustained close below these points can drag it down
further.
10. It is
making lower top & bottom on the line chart.
11. The price action was negative today.
TRADING CALL: --
1. Long trade can be tried on decline near 49100 if it holds
this point for some time with a stop loss of
48860 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in
a corrective market could be a risky bet but can be tried at critical support
point with strict stop loss for intraday gain.
2. Short
trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 49650—49750 with
a stop loss of 49870 or can sell if it moves below 49050 with a
stop loss of 49270. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for
intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up
with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long
position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the
selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of
trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit
margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any
case.
Disclaimer:-The view
expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any
way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that
make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and
then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated
here are of spot market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Email—suranank@gmail.com
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
