CNX-NIFTY
Open—23050.80—High—23144.70---Low---22798.35--Close---23045.25 on 12.2.2025.
Support:22976.85/22794.70/22775.70/22525.65/22303.80/21875.25/21860.25/21821.05/21777.65/21710.20/21530.20/21281.45/21137.20/20976.80.
Resistance:23047.25/23110.80/23263.15/23338.70/23391.65/23426.30/23484.15/23537/23637.65/23644.80/23664/23667.20/23816.15/23873.35/23893.70/23938.85/24073.90/24094.20/24099.70/24141.80/24354.55/24472.80/24498.20/24537.60/24694.35/24753.15/24792.3024854.80/24857.75/25078.30/25234.05/25285.55/25333.65/25445.70/25871.35/26277.35/26328/26995/27095/27212/27293/27381.
OVERALL VIEW
ON THE DAILY CHART:
--
It opened on a negative note and thereafter
had both side moves during the day, it had wild swing both ways today and
finally ended the day with a loss of 26.55 points.
Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign
for a steady market.
The technical setup on the daily chart has terribly
weakened as it is below all its recent critical support points and below all
its short, medium & long term moving averages on the daily chart. It
is into deep correction mode for its earlier and recent rise therefore
further fall looks inevitable in the coming days. But the good thing happened
today was that it tested its recent major bottom of 22786.90 made on
27.1.2025 but did not break it so, made a double bottom, which is a
positive sign to move up and finally closed above it short pullback threshold
point of 23036.36(figure may change), furthermore it has been vertically
falling for the last six days in a row, therefore, a relief rally is also on
the cards and it can happen any time soon. So, please note that as long as it
holds 23036.36---23028---22991 and finally if it holds the range of 22794.70---22786.90---22768.40
& 23690(it bounced back from this range today) hope of a strong bounce
back would be alive, but break & sustained close below these points and
particularly below 22690(figure will change every day) which is major rising
trend line count for the day may trigger fresh fall and then it may witness an
accelerated fall and the next strong support points would be at 22281—22165---21821---21710 and it could bounce back from
this range, but break and sustained close below this range can drag it down to 21150 or lower, which may please be
noted. It is important to mention here that as of
now it is also weak on the weekly & monthly chart technical parameters therefore it is not yet out of woods for the long term and
may witness moderate to sharp fall in coming weeks & months, but it has to
reviewed at regular interval for any potential positive/negative change. The
short and medium-term trend is down and the long-term uptrend is severely threatened
and in jeopardy now.
Similarly moving up the key resistance
points would be at 23284---23337----23367----23491---23566.49----23611----23618----23637.65----23644.80---23735----23893.70----23927----24023-----24049----24141----24177----24280(some
figures may change daily). Please note that, if it moves above 23284---23337----23367
and sustain on the closing basis then it may gain some strength to move up
further, if it moves above 23491 and sustain on the closing basis then
it will strengthen further, if it moves above 23566.49 and sustain on
the closing basis then it will be out of deep corrective mode for its recent
rise, if it moves above 23611 which is a long pullback threshold point
then it will enhance the chances of a continued up-move but to keep the hope of
strong up move alive in the 2025 it has to move above 23637.65----23644.80
and sustain on the closing basis, else it may start to drift down, if it
move above 23893.70 and sustain on the closing basis then it will get a good
foothold to build the strong up-move and then the up move is likely to extend
further and if it moves above the range of 24141----24177----24280 and
sustain on the closing basis then the long term uptrend threat will dissipate
and it may somewhat ensure that up-move can extend further for sure. But to get
good strength for the continuation of the up-move and to get into strong up-momentum
track it has to move above 24481.42---24625.43---24753.15---24857.75 &
25078.30 (figure may change) particularly above 24753.15 and sustain
on the closing basis.
HEAD & SHOULDER
PATTERN VISIBLE ON THE DAILY CHART:-It is still below its
neckline which is placed at 23893.70 and if it sustain below it on the closing
basis then the maximum downside target could be in the range of 21850---21510.
Please note that this pattern will be partly negated if it moves above 23893.70
and sustain and it will be fully negated
if it moves above 24857.75 & 25078.35. This is a very powerful pattern and
rarely fails. It is therefore suggested that do not remain short if it closes
above the neckline of 23893.70 and sustain, similarly do not remain long if it
closes below it.
TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE
DAILY CHART;-
It has broken its recent bottom on the line
& bar chart , it is below all its
short term moving averages on the daily & weekly chart and below some on
the monthly chart also, it is also below all its medium term moving average on
the daily chart & below few averages on the weekly chart too and most
importantly it is below all its long term moving average on the daily chart,
which is a severe threat to the long
term uptrend and is highly concerning
and jeopardized the long term uptrend for now. Furthermore, five out of seven important
technical indicators are negative now four are in sell mode, but the slight
comforting thing is that two out of seven indicators are positive also, one in
the buy mode and one in the oversold
zone. Therefore, in
totality it is emitting mixed signal but broadly towards weakness and may move
down further in coming day if it does not bounce back above 23645 and sustain on the closing basis
in the shortest possible time. Please keep an eye on the price action for
further directional indication.
TECHNICAL
INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-
On the weekly
chart almost all indicators are negative, sell mode is on in four indicators,
there is huge negative divergence but it is in the oversold zone and may stage
a recovery but that may not last. On the monthly chart it is in overbought zone
and with huge negative divergence and MACD has triggered sell. Therefore, all
together indicators on the weekly & monthly chart as of now indicates that
it is not yet out of woods and further fall is very much on the horizon in
coming weeks and months and the down move is on. So, keep a watch on the price
action for further directional indication.
IT
IS SELL ON THE RISE MARKET AS OF NOW;-
It is
into deep correction mode for its earlier & recent rise, and pullback
threshold point is also broken
therefore it is sell on the rise
market now in general , but long trade
can also be tried on the decline near critical support points with strict stop loss , for intraday corrective
gains. It is suggested to avoid long trade in general till it closes above 23367 and sustain on the closing basis.
STRENGTH: -
1. It is above its short pullback
threshold point of 23036.46 (figure may change), sustained close it
may help it to move-up further.
2. Two out of seven technical indicators are positive on the daily chart
with one in the buy mode, in oversold zone & one with positive divergence.
WEAKNESS: -.
1. Please note that almost all indicators
on the weekly chart are negative indicates oversold condition, sell mode is on
and negative divergence and finally on the monthly chart it indicates
overbought condition and negative divergence.
2. Volatility and wild swing can
be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market
condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming
days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
3. It is into correction deep mode
now as it closed below some of the correction threshold points of 26043.29----25917.64---25714.81----25098.32-----25064.27-----24625.43-----24521.63---
24481.42-----24047.39----23669.17---23566.49 (figures may change). The other
important correction threshold point is 21848.52 (figure may change) and if it sustain below these points
correction will deepen.
4. Five out of seven technical
indicators are negative on the daily chart with all in the sell mode.
5. It is below all
its long-term moving averages on the daily chart therefore severely threatened
the uptrend.
6. It is below its medium &
long pullback threshold point of 23276---23611
(figure may change), sustained close
below it can weaken the chances of an up-move and moves down.
7. It is below its most critical
points of 23644.80 & 23637.65; please
note that it must stay above these points to keep up the up momentum going in
the year 2025.
8 It is below almost all its
short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average
range for day is between 23445----23377----23367----23337---23327---23284(figure will change every day), sustained close below this range may
accelerate the down move.
9. It has broken its recent bottom
on the line & bar chart.
10. The price action was negative
today.
TRADING CALL: --
1. Long
trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 22991----22960 but
not below it with a stop loss of 22890 or can buy if it moves
above 23051 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 22950 for a possible intraday gain,
else avoid. Please note that long trade
in a corrective market could be a risky affair but can be tried near critical
support points for intraday gains.
2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 23250----23300
with a stop loss of 23410 or can sell if it moves below 22960 with
a stop loss of 23060 It could be a risky trade but can be tried for
intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If
it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating
long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near
the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type
of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable
profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested
in any case.
Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at
all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the
above view.
Kindly note that make your cost your
stop loss in favorable trade
and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated here are of spot
market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
Email--- suranank@gmail.com
