CNX-BANK NIFTY
Open—48546.05---High—48858.65---Low—48203---Close—48367.80 on 24.1.2025.
Support:48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/48074.05/47898.35/47363.40/46983.75/46077.85/45828.80/45661.75/44633.85/44429/43600.25/43345.45/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40.
Resistance:48636.45/49057.40/49459/49654.65/49688.80//49787.10/49904.40/49974.75/50194.30/50369.40/50382.10/50438.30/50841.90/50860.20/50947.70/51000.90/51133.20/51138.90/51693.50/51749.45/51749.45/52354.85/52493.95/52577.50/52760.20/52782.75/52794.95/53357.70/53531.30/53792.85/53888.30/54247.70/54467.35/54593/54604/54772/54815/54924/55097/55209/55444/55646/55740/55827/56135/56255.
OVERALL,
VIEW: --
It opened on a negative note and thereafter had both side
moves during the day and finally ended the day with a loss of 221.20 points.
Technically it is on a very fragile footing and highly vulnerable for further
breakdown, break & sustained below 48074
&48027 will trigger fresh fall and break & sustained close below 47898.35
& 47756 may accelerate the
fall, else it may have a relief rally which may not sustain. Please note that
it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.
It is already into the deep corrective mode and the overall chart
setup is very weak. Furthermore the long term uptrend is in jeopardy and most
importantly as it is below its last crucial bottom of 49654.65 for a reasonable period of time and if it sustain below it for a longer period of time then the
downside correction could be more painful price-wise and time-wise both and it
will seek much lower levels and moving
down the possible strong support points could be at 48336-----48159----48074.05-----47898.35---47756(some figure may change), it can
bounce back from any of these points, but break & sustained close below
each point will weaken it and finally break & sustained close below 47756 can drag it down to 46100 or lover. The short- & medium-term trend is down
and the long-term uptrend is severely threatened and in jeopardy now. The bias is
hugely negative as of now.
Similarly moving up the key resistance points would be at 48789.11---49448.63----49654.65---49980---50289---50494---50818----50841.90---50860.20----50917---51162---51227----51584(some
figure will change daily). Please note that, if it moves above 48789.11 and sustain on the closing
basis then it may have an feeble up-move, if it moves above 49448.63 &
49654.65 and sustain on the closing basis then it will gain a good foothold
and chances of extending the up-move will enhance, if it moves above 50841.90 & 50860.20 and sustain on
the closing basis then it will keep the hope alive for the up move in the year 2025
and if it moves above 51162---51227----51584 and sustain on the closing basis
then the long term uptrend threat will dissipate and then it is likely to
extend the up-move for sure. But please note that it may get good strength for
the continuation of the up-move if it moves above 52690.31 & 52920.42 (figure may change daily) and
sustain on the closing basis and finally to get back into the strong
up-momentum track again it has to move above 53153.55--53331.55----53370.43----53500.30(figure may change) and
sustain on the closing basis. Please note that if it moves above 53153.55
and sustain on the closing basis then it could retest its all-time high of 54467.35
or may go beyond it also.
TECHNICAL INDICATORS
PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-
It is making lower top & bottom on the line chart again,
which is a weak sign , it is below all
its short term moving average on the daily, weekly & below few averages on monthly chart also, it
is below all its medium term moving average on the daily chart & majorly below
averages on the weekly chart too and most importantly it is below all its long term moving average on the daily
chart, which is a severe threat to the long term uptrend and it is highly concerning and jeopardized the long term
uptrend. Furthermore, majorly important technical
indicators are negative on the daily chart but one indicator in buy mode, furthermore
it is in the oversold zone and with a positive divergence, therefore it may
have relief rally at times but it is not likely to sustain because the overall chart
setup is very weak therefore further fall looks inevitable in coming days if
does not move-up sharply above
some of its critical points in a shortest possible time. It is also important to mention here that the
price action has been inconsistent / weak for some time. So, it is suggested to keep an eye on price
action for further directional indication.
TECHNICAL
INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART: -
On the weekly chart almost all the indicators are negative now, it is in the sell signal in maximum indicators, and negative divergence is there but in the oversold zone. On the monthly chart it is in overbought zone and with huge negative divergence and maximum indicators are in the sell mode. Therefore, all together indicators on the weekly & monthly chart as of now indicates that it is not yet out of woods and further fall is very much on the horizon in coming weeks and months and down move is on. So keep a watch on the price action for further directional indication.
IT IS SELL ON RISE MARKET NOW;-
It is into deep correction mode for its earlier & recent rise, therefore it is sell on the rise market now till it closes at least above 49655 and sustain, but still long trade can also be tried on decline near the critical support points with strict stop losses for intraday gains.
STRENGTH: -
1. Two out of
seven technical indicators are positive on the daily chart with buy signal
& positive divergence and in oversold zone.
WEAKNESS: -
1. Volatility
and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign
for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically
in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
2. Please
note that indicators, on the weekly chart it is in the sell mode in maximum indicators,
in overbought zone and with huge negative divergence & on the monthly chart,
indicating overbought condition and with huge negative divergence and triggered
sell mode also.
3. It is
below few of its corrective threshold points of 53500.30-----53370.43---53331.55----52920.42---52487.43---52098.30------51549.93-----50725.73----49201.72--- (figure may change) and
if it sustains below these points then it may extend the down move. The other
important key correction threshold points are 45416.49 (figure may change)
4 It is
below all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the
important average range for day is between 50842---50533---49531---49481-----49037---48871---48700---48695(figure will change every day), sustained close below this range can witness an accelerated down move.
5. Five out
of seven technical indicators are negative on the daily chart with sell signal.
6. The long-term
uptrend is in jeopardy as it is below all its long-term moving averages.
7. Its below
its most critical points of 50860.20 & 50841.90; please note that it
must stay above these points to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2025,
else it will drift down sharply.
8. It is
below its long pullback threshold point of 49448.63(figure may change), sustained
close below this point will help it to extend down move.
9. It has
broken its crucial bottom of 49654.65.
10. It is below its short pullback threshold
point of 48789.11(figure
may change), sustained
close below this point may extend the down move.
11. It is
making lower top & bottom on the line chart again.
12. The price action was negative today.
TRADING CALL: --
1. Long trade can be tried on decline near 48074 if it holds this point for some time but not below it with a
stop loss of 48850 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please
note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky bet but can be
tried at critical support point with strict stop loss for intraday gain.
2. Short
trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 48850—49000 with
a stop loss of 49100 or can sell if it moves below 48070 and maintain for some time then with a stop loss of 48170.It could be a risky trade but can be tried
for intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up
with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long
position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the
selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of
trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit
margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any
case.
Disclaimer:-The view
expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any
way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that
make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and
then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated
here are of spot market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Email—suranank@gmail.com
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
