CNX-BANK NIFTY
Open—50201.75--High—50246.90--Low—49389.75--Close—49835.05 on 8.1.2025.
Support:49787.10/49688.80/49654.65/49057.40/48636.45/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/47363.40/46983.75/46077.85/45828.80/45661.75/44633.85/44429/43600.25/43345.45/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40.
Resistance:49904.40/49974.75/50194.30/50369.40/50382.10/50438.30/50841.90/50860.20/50947.70/51000.90/51133.20/51138.90/51693.50/51749.45/51749.45/52354.85/52493.95/52577.50/52760.20/52782.75/52794.95/53357.70/53531.30/53792.85/53888.30/54247.70/54467.35/54593/54604/54772/54815/54924/55097/55209/55444/55646/55740/55827/56135/56255.
OVERALL,
VIEW: --
It opened on a positive note but after that it did not went much higher and thereafter it steadily declined during the day but in the last hour of trade it staged a recovery but finally ended the day with a loss of 367.10 points. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.
It is already into deep corrective mode and the overall chart
setup is very weak. Please note that it is decisively below the benchmark
points of 50860.20 & 50841.90 which
is an essential parameter to keep the hope alive of an up-move in the year 2025, and this is a very weak sign.
Furthermore it is below all the key support points now and most importantly it
is below all its long term moving averages therefore putting the long term
uptrend in jeopardy now. But moving down further from here the last crucial
support range is between 49787.10 & 49654.65(it
did break these break points decisively intraday today but bounced back to
close above it) and if it does not bounce back from this range and break
& sustain below it on the closing basis then it can witness an accelerated
fall and if stays below it for longer period then the downside correction could
be more painful price-wise and time-wise both. The short & medium term trend is down and the long term uptrend is
severely threatened and in jeopardy now. The bias is hugely negative as of now.
Similarly moving up the key resistance points would be at 50172---50400---50483---50588.06----50723---50819---50841.90---50860.20----51052---51150---51468----51815(some
figure will change daily). Please note that if it moves above 50588.06 and sustain on the closing
basis then it may give a weak signal for moving up further, if it moves above 50841.90 & 50860.20 and sustain on
the closing basis then it will raise reasonable hope that the up-move can
extend and if it moves above 51052---51150---51468
& 51815 and sustain on the closing basis then the long term uptrend
threat will dissipate and then it is likely to extend the up-move for sure. But
please note that it may get good strength for the continuation of the up-move
if it moves above 52665 & 52920.42 (figure may change daily) and sustain on the closing basis
and finally to get back into the strong up-momentum track again it has to move
above 53370.43---53451.83----53500.30 and
sustain on the closing basis.
TECHNICAL INDICATORS
PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-
It has made lower top & bottom on the line & bar
chart, which is a very weak sign, it is below all its short term moving average
on the daily & weekly chart and below few on the monthly chart also, it is below
all its medium term moving average on the daily chart & below few averages
on the weekly chart too and most importantly it is below all its long term moving average on the daily
chart, which is a severe threat to the long term uptrend and it is highly concerning. Furthermore all the important technical indicators are negative on the
daily chart and maximum indicators are in the sell mode and negative divergence
is also there, but the comforting thing is that it is in slightly oversold zone,
therefore it may have a relief rally anytime but it is not likely to sustain
and may fail and then it may resume the down move again (it had an up-move
on 7.1.2025 but had a very bad down day today). It is also important to mention here that the
price action is consistently weak for some time. Therefore in view of the above
further fall is very much on the card in the coming days. So it is suggested to
keep an eye on price action for further directional indication.
TECHNICAL
INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-
On the weekly chart almost all the indicators are negative now, it has triggered sell signal in maximum indicators, and negative divergence is there but in slight oversold zone also. On the monthly chart it is in overbought zone and with huge negative divergence and maximum indicators are in the sell mode. Therefore all together indicators on the weekly & monthly chart as of now indicates that it is not yet out of woods and further fall is very much on the horizon in coming weeks and months and down move is on. So keep a watch on the price action for further directional indication.
IT IS SELL ON RISE MARKET NOW;-
It is into deep correction mode for its earlier & recent rise, therefore it is sell on the rise market now till it closes at least above 50860.20 and sustain, but still long trade can also be tried on decline near the critical support points with strict stop losses for intraday gains.
STRENGTH: -
1. It is
still holding its most important bottom of 49787.10 & 49654.65.
WEAKNESS: -
1. Volatility
and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign
for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically
in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
2. Please
note that indicators, on the weekly chart it is in the sell mode in maximum indicators,
in overbought zone and with huge negative divergence & on the monthly chart,
indicating overbought condition and with huge negative divergence and triggered
sell mode also.
3. It is
below few of its corrective threshold points of 53500.30-----53370.43---53331.55----52920.42---52487.43---52098.30------51549.93-----50725.73 (figure may change) and
if it sustain below these points then it may extend the down move. The other
important key correction threshold points are 49201.72---45416.49 (figure may change)
4 It is
below all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the
important average range for day is between 51578----51282----51233-----51019-----50969---50791-50573(figure will change every day), sustained close below this range can witness an accelerated down move..
5. All the
seven technical indicators are negative on the daily chart with sell signal,
distinct negative divergence, but in the oversold zone.
6. It is
below its short pullback threshold point of 49928.44(figure may change), sustained
close below this point may take it down.
7. The long
term uptrend is in jeopardy as it is below almost all its long term moving
averages.
8. Its below
its most critical points of 50860.20
& 50841.90; please note that it must stay above these points to keep up
the up momentum going in the year 2025, else it will drift down sharply.
9. It is
below its long pullback threshold point of 50588.06(figure may change), sustained
close below this point will help it to extend down move.
10. It has
broken its recent bottom on the line & bar chart.
11. The price action was negative today.
TRADING CALL: --
1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 49787----49655 if it hold the range for
some time with a stop loss of 49450 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please
note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky bet but can be
tried at critical support point with strict stop loss for intraday gain.
2. Short
trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 50480—50600 with
a stop loss of 50750 or can sell if it moves below 49610 and
maintain for some time with a stop loss of 49760.It could be a risky
trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up
with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long
position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the
selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of
trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit
margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any
case.
Disclaimer:-The view
expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any
way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that
make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and
then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated
here are of spot market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Email—suranank@gmail.com
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
