CNX-BANK NIFTY
Open—51314.95--High—51382.10--Low—51137.50--Close—51233 on 24.12.2024.
Support:51138.90/51133.20/51000.90/50947.70/50865.45/50438.30/50382.10/50369.40/50194.30/49974.75/49904.40/49787.10/49688.80/49654.65/49057.40/48636.45/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/47363.40/46983.75/46077.85/45828.80/45661.75/44633.85/44429/43600.25/43345.45/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40.
Resistance:51693.50/51749.45/51749.45/52354.85/52493.95/52577.50/52760.20/52782.75/52794.95/53357.70/53531.30/53792.85/53888.30/54247.70/54467.35/54593/54604/54772/54815/54924/55097/55209/55444/55646/55740/55827/56135/56255.
OVERALL,
VIEW: --
It opened on a flat note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally, ended the day with a loss of 84.60 points. It moved in a short range today, therefore there is a possibility that it may have a wild movement on the either side on 26.12.2024. Please note that the gap it created on 19.12.2024 is still there and if it makes an effort to fill the gap in the next 1—2 trading sessions, which is technically possible then it can come up to 52011, but if it does not fill the gap in the stipulated time then the chances of filling the gap will recede for the time being, but it will fill the gap some day. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.
The overall chart setup is weak. After yesterdays up-move it
took a breather today but the up move may not be over as yet, therefore how it
culminate has to be seen in the next few trading sessions, as of now it
seems that this up-move is a bull trap and may not last long and can fizzle-out
abruptly any moment. Please note that it is below almost all its recent
important & key support points on the chart and the long term uptrend is
also threatened, which is very concerning therefore further fall looks
inevitable in coming days. However moving down from here the forthcoming important
support points could be at 51129----51039---50891.64----50864----50750----50544----50499----50451----50221-----50188(some
figure may change daily) and then the last key support range is between 49787.10-----49654.65. Please note that
it can bounce back from any of these points, but break & sustained close
below 50891.64 may end the
possibility of a sustained up-move, break & sustained close below 50750 may trigger fresh fall and
thereafter break & sustained close below each point will weaken it further,
break & sustained close below 50138
will jeopardize the long term uptrend and finally break & sustained close
below 49654.65 may witness an
accelerated fall. The short & medium term trend is down
and the long term uptrend is also threatened. The bias is negative as of now.
Similarly moving up the key resistance points would be at 51383.19---51451----51783----52055.60----52087.65----52132.82(some figure will
change daily). Please note that if it moves above the range of 51383.19---51444---51772 and sustain on
the closing basis then the long term uptrend threat will dissipate and it can
extend the up-move, if it moves above 52055.60----52087.65----52132.82 the up-move is
likely to extend further. But please note that it may get good strength for the
continuation of the up-move if it moves above 52210—52344-----52444----52604 &
52920.42 (figure may change daily) and
sustain on the closing basis and finally to get back into the strong
up-momentum track again it has to move above 53370.43---53531.30---53644.50 & 53888.30 and sustain on the
closing basis.
TECHNICAL INDICATORS
PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-
It is making lower top & bottom on line & bar chart
both, it is below all its short term moving average on the daily & weekly
and below few averages on the monthly chart too, it is below all its medium
term moving average on the daily chart and below few on the weekly chart also
and most importantly it is below few long term moving average also on the daily
chart, which is threatening the long term uptrend and is very concerning.
Furthermore all the important technical
indicators have turned negative on the daily chart and it has triggered the
sell mode in the maximum indicators, negative divergence is there and the only
comforting thing is that it is in oversold zone, therefore it may have a relief
rally anytime but it is not likely to sustain and may fail and it may resume
the down move again. It
is also important to mention here that the price action is consistently weak
for some time. Therefore in view of the above further fall is very much on the
card in the coming days. So it is suggested to keep an eye on price action for
further directional indication.
TECHNICAL
INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-
On the weekly chart almost all the indicators are negative now, it has triggered sell signal, negative divergence is there and in overbought zone. On the monthly chart it is in overbought zone and with huge negative divergence. Therefore all together indicators on the weekly & monthly chart as of now indicates that it is not yet out of woods and further fall is very much on the horizon in coming weeks and months and down move is on. So keep a watch on the price action for further directional indication.
IT IS SELL ON RISE MARKET NOW.;-
It has slipped into deep correction mode today for its recent rise, therefore it is sell on the rise market now till it closes at least above 51783(figure will change daily) and sustain, but long trade can also be tried on decline near the critical support points for intraday gains.
STRENGTH: -
1. It is in
the long-term uptrend, but it is threatened
today.
2. It is well
above its most critical points of 48203.45---48292.25 & 48636.45, please note that it must stay above all these
points to keep up the strong up momentum going in the year 2024.
3 It is
above its long pullback threshold point of 50891.64(figure may change), sustained
close above this point will keep the hope alive for an up-move.
WEAKNESS: -
1. Volatility
and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign
for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically
in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
2. Please
note that indicators, on the weekly chart it has triggered sell signal, in overbought zone and with huge negative
divergence & on the monthly chart, indicating overbought condition and with
huge negative divergence.
3. It is
below few of its corrective threshold points of 53500.30-----53370.43---53331.55----52920.42---52487.43---52098.30------51549.93---- (figure may change) and
if it sustain below these points then it may extend the down move. The other
important key correction threshold points are 50725.73----
49201.72---45416.49 (figure may change)
4 It is
below all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the
important average range for day is between 52604----52444----52364-----52210-----51998---51877(figure will change every day), sustained close below this range can witness an accelerated down move.
5. It is
making lower top & bottom on the line and bar chart both.
6. The price action was mixed today.
7. All the
seven technical indicators are negative on the daily chart with sell signal,
distinct negative divergence, but in the oversold zone.
8 It is
below its short pullback threshold point of 51383.19(figure may change), sustained
close below this point will keep the down move on.
9. It is
below few long terms moving average now 51783----51451
and the other long term moving average are 50864----50773-----50544-----50451----50221
& 50138, please note that sustained close below these points
will weaken it and will drag it down.
TRADING CALL: --
1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 51040----50980 if it hold this range
for some time, then with a stop loss
of 50700 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in
a corrective market could be a risky bet but can be tried at critical support
point with strict stop loss for intraday gain.
2. Short
trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 51450--51500 with
a stop loss of 51600 or can sell
if it moves below 51050 and
maintain for some time with a stop loss of 51260.It could be a risky
trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up
with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long
position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the
selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of
trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit
margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any
case.
Disclaimer:-The view
expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any
way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that
make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and
then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated
here are of spot market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Email—suranank@gmail.com
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
