CNX-NIFTY
Open—23960.70—High—24065.80---Low---23537.35---Close-23587.50on 20.12.2024.
Support:23484.15/23350/23338.70/23263.15/23110.80/22794.70/22775.70/22525.65/22303.80/21875.25/21860.25/21821.05/21777.65/21710.20/21530.20/21281.45/21137.20/20976.80.
Resistance:23664/23667.20/23816.15/23873.35/23893.70/24073.90/24094.20/24099.70/24141.80/24354.55/24472.80/24498.20/24537.60/24694.35/24753.15/24792.3024854.80/24857.75/25078.30/25234.05/25285.55/25333.65/25445.70/25871.35/26277.35/26328/26995/27095/27212/27293/27381.
OVERALL VIEW
ON THE DAILY CHART:
--
It opened on a negative note and thereafter
had both side moves during the day and finally ended, the day with a loss of
364.20 points. Please note that the gap it created on 19.12.2024 is
still there and if it makes an effort to fill the gap in the next 3—4 trading
sessions, which is technically possible then it can come up to 24150,
but if it does not fill the gap in the stipulated time then chances of filling
the gap will recede for the time being, but it will fill the gap some day.
Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign
for a steady market.
The overall chart setup is terribly weak.
It is below almost all its recent important & key support points on the
chart and the long term uptrend is already severely threatened, which is very concerning,
therefore further fall looks inevitable in coming days. Please note that it has
been vertically falling for the last five days and now near the critical
support points therefore it may stage a relief rally anytime soon and then may
resume the down move again because any rise now could be a bull trap only. Furthermore
there is a chance of a bounce back if it manages to hold the range of 23575----23530
and the last ray of hope for the strong bounce back is the range of 23350.40-----23263.15,
but break & sustained close below this range may witness an accelerated
fall and then it will find strong support in the range of 22794.70----22768.40
and it is needless to mention here that break & sustained close below this
range can drag it down to much lower levels, which may please be noted. The
short & medium term trend is down and the long term uptrend is severely threatened.
The bias is hugely negative as of now.
Similarly moving up the key resistance
points would be at 23873.35----23893.70---23974.50----24141---24215----24336---24466---24481.42(some
figure will change daily). Please note that if it moves above 23873.35
& 23893.70 and sustain on the closing basis then it will get a
strong foothold to move up, if it moves above 23974.50 and sustain on
the closing basis then it will give a ray of hope that the up move can extend
and if it moves above the range of 24215---24481.42 and sustain on the
closing basis then the long term uptrend threat will dissipate and it may
somewhat ensure that up-move can extend further for sure. But please note that
it may get good strength for the continuation of the up-move and may get into
strong up-momentum track only if it moves above 24625.43---24753.15 &
24857.75 (figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis.
TECHNICAL
INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-
It has broken its recent bottoms on the
line and few bottoms on the bar chart, it is below all its short term moving average
on the daily & weekly chart and below few averages on the monthly chart
also, it is below all its medium term moving average on the daily chart and
below few on the weekly chart and most importantly it is almost below all its long
term moving average on the daily chart thereby severely threatening the long
term uptrend which is a very concerning. Furthermore all the important technical indicators are negative
on the daily chart and it has triggered the sell mode in the maximum
indicators, negative divergence is there and the only comforting thing is that
it is in oversold zone, so it may stage a short relief rally some time and then
resume the fall again. It is also important to mention here that the price
action is consistently weak for some time. Therefore in view of the above
further fall is very much on the card in the coming days. So it is suggested to
keep an eye on price action for further directional indication.
TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY &
MONTHLY CHART:-
On the weekly chart
almost all indicators are negative, sell mode is on in the maximum indicators,
there is huge negative divergence and it is in the overbought/ neutral zone. On
the monthly chart it is in overbought zone and with huge negative divergence. Therefore
all together indicators on the weekly & monthly chart as of now indicates
that it is not yet out of woods and further fall is very much on the horizon in
coming weeks and months and the down move is on. So keep a watch on the price
action for further directional indication.
IT
IS SELL ON RISE MARKET NOW.;-
It has
slipped into deep correction mode today for its recent rise, therefore it is
sell on the rise market now till it closes above 23873.35
& 23893.70 and sustain on the closing basis , but long trade can also be tried
on decline near critical support points for intraday gains.
STRENGTH: -
1. It is in the long-term uptrend, but it
has been severely threatened.
2. It is
far-far above its most critical points of 21821.05---21801.45---21777.65---21776.87---21731.40---21727.75
& 21710.20, which is must to keep the up momentum going in the year 2024.
Sustained break below this range may witness accelerated fall..
WEAKNESS: -.
1. Please note that almost all indicators
on the weekly chart are negative indicates oversold condition, sell mode is on
and negative divergence and finally on the monthly chart it indicates
overbought condition and negative divergence.
2. Volatility and wild swing can
be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market
condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming
days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
3. It is into correction deep mode
now as it closed below some of the correction threshold points of 26043.29----25917.64---25714.81----25098.32-----25064.27-----24625.43-----24521.63---
24481.42-----24047.39-----23659.18--- (figures may
change). The other important correction threshold
points are at 21848.52 (figure may change) and if it sustain
below these points correction will deepen.
4. All the seven
important technical indicators are negative, maximum indicators on the sell
mode now, negative divergence is there but in oversold zone, so it may give a
relief rally any time and then may resume down move again.
5. The price action was weak today.
6. It has broken its entire recent
bottom on the line and some on the bar chart also.
7. It is below its deep correction
threshold point of 24481.42 for its
recent rise.
8. It is below its short &
strong pullback threshold point of 23849
& 23974.50(figure may change).
9. It is below all its short term
moving averages on the daily chart and the important average range for the day
is between 24393----24363----24285----24240----24228----24212---24092 (figure will change every day), sustained close below this range may
witness an accelerated fall.
10. It is below few long terms
moving average now 24465----24335----24215---23955---23876---23834---23714----23692
and the other
long term moving average is 23574, please note that
sustained close below these points will weaken it and will drag it down.
11. It is below its key point of 24140.85 & 24131.10 which is essential to keep the up-momentum going in the
month of December-2024.
TRADING CALL: --
1. Long
trade can be tried if it holds the range of 23574----23538 for some time
with a stop loss of 23445 or can try on sharp decline near or within the
range of 23265---23225 with a stop loss of 23150 for a possible intraday gain, else
avoid. Please note that long trade in a
corrective market could be a risky affair but can be tried near critical
support points for intraday gains.
2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 23820—23870
with a stop loss of 23950 or can sell if it moves below 23530
and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 23610. It could be
a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If
it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating
long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near
the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type
of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable
profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested
in any case.
Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at
all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the
above view.
Kindly note that make your cost your
stop loss in favorable trade
and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated here are of spot
market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
Email--- suranank@gmail.com
