CNX-NIFTY
Open—24620.50—High—24691.75---Low---24583.85---Close----24641.80 on 11.12.2024.
Support:24537.60/24498.20/24472.80/24354.55/24141.80/24099.70/24094.20/24073.90/23893.70/23873.35/23816.15/23667.20/23664/23484.15/23350/23338.70/23263.15/23110.80/22794.70/22775.70/22525.65/22303.80/21875.25/21860.25/21821.05/21777.65/21710.20/21530.20/21281.45/21137.20/20976.80.
Resistance:24694.35/24753.15/24854.80/24857.75/25078.30/25234.05/25285.55/25333.65/25445.70/25871.35/26277.35/26328/26995/27095/27212/27293/27381.
OVERALL VIEW
ON THE DAILY CHART:
--
It opened on a positive note and thereafter
had both side moves during the day and finally ended, the day with a gain of
31.75 points. Please note
that it is exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.
After 3 days of down move it had a
small up-move today. It is still showing reasonable strength for the
continuation of the up move. Please note that moving down from here if it holds
the support points at 24625.43---24537.60---24481.42----24424---24343----24140.85---24131.10(some
figure may change daily) then the chances of extending the up-move will be
alive. But break & sustained close below 24625.43 will push it into short
correction mode for its recent rise, break & sustained close below 24537.60
will trigger weakness, break & sustained close below 24481.42 will
push it into deep corrective mode for its recent rise, break & sustained
close below 24424 will threaten the long term uptrend again, break &
sustained close below 24343 will weaken it further and finally break
& sustained close below 24140.85 & 24131.10 will lose the
upside momentum steam for the month of December-2024. Similarly moving
up it will face very stiff resistance at 24694.35 & 24753.15.
Please note that till it moves above 24753.15(it did move above it decisively
intraday on 5.12.2024 but could not close above it) and sustain on the
closing basis fear of an abrupt fall will always be there and the on-going
up-move may end for good and it may start moving down again, but sustained
close above this mark will ensure that it may get back into, the strong
up-momentum track again and then the broad upside target could be 24771---25126----25566---25675
and if it moves above 25675 and sustain on the closing basis then it may
retest its all-time high of 26277.35 or may go beyond it also. Therefore
please note that any rise before it closes above 24753.15 and sustain on
the closing basis could be a possible bull trap, therefore it is suggested to
ride the on-going rise with utmost alert and caution.
The overall chart setup has improved, it
has made higher top & bottom on the line & bar chart, it is above all
its short & almost above maximum medium term moving averages on the daily
chart, above almost all short & above all medium term moving averages on
the weekly chart and
most importantly it is above all its long terms moving average on the daily chart,
which is very positive sign for the continuation of the up-move. Furthermore all
the important technical indicators are positive now with buy mode and huge
positive divergence but in the overbought zone, so it may have down move again
for a day or two, so all together chart setup & indicators are giving
positive signals, therefore it is likely to extend the on-going up-move further
provided it holds the key points as mentioned above on the closing basis. The long term uptrend is intact as of now.
POSSIBLE
MOVE ON THE UPSIDE:-
Please
note that if it holds 24625.43---24537.60---24481.42----24424---24343----24140.85---24131.10(some
figure may change)
on the closing basis then it can extend the up-move , but moving up it will face very
strong resistance at 24753.15 and if it moves above it and sustain on the closing basis then it is likely that it will
strongly extend the up-move and may get back into the strong up-momentum track
again and then the broad upside target could be 24771---25126----25566---25675
and if it moves above 25675 and sustain on the closing basis then it may
retest its all-time high of 26277.35 or may go beyond it also.
POSSIBLE
MOVE ON THE DOWNSIDE:-
Moving down from
here it may find good support at 24625.43----24537.60---24481.42----24424---24298-----24178-----24140.85----24131.10---23974.50----23893.70----23873.35----23768-----23757----23648----23637------23531------23350.15-----23338.70---23263.15------23110.80---22794.70----22775---22281---22165(few figures may change daily). Please note that it can bounce back from any of these points, but break
& sustained close below 24625.43 will push it into correction mode
for its recent rise, break & sustained close below 24537.60 will
trigger weakness, break & sustained close below 24481.42 will push
it into deep corrective mode for its recent rise, break & sustained close
below 24424 will threaten the long term uptrend again, break &
sustained close below 24343 will weaken it further, break &
sustained close below 24140.85 & 24131.10 will lose the
upside momentum steam for the month of December-2024, break &
sustained close below 23974.50 will end the possibility of continuing the
up-move, break & sustained close below 23893.70 & 23873.35 will
push it back into big correction mode again and if it sustains below it for a
longer period of time then the correction could be more painful price-wise and
time-wise both. Thereafter break & close below each point will weaken it
further and finally moving down its last strong support range could be between 23648---23531(figure
will change daily) and then 23350---23263(figure will change daily),
break & sustained close below the range of 23648---23531 may trigger
fresh fall and break & sustained close below the range of 23350---23263 may
accelerate the fall and may seek much lower levels.
TECHNICAL
INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-
On the weekly
chart almost all indicators are negative, sell mode is on, there is huge
negative divergence and it is in neutral or little overbought zone. On the
monthly chart it is in overbought zone and with huge negative divergence. Therefore
all together indicators on the weekly & monthly chart as of now indicates
that it is not yet out of woods and further fall is very much on the horizon in
coming weeks and months. So keep a watch on the price action for further
directional indication.
IT
IS BOTH SIDE TRADEABLE MARKET NOW.;-
Both
side trades can be attempted depending on the price action for intraday gains.
But since it is showing some strength in the chart setup therefore preferably
long trade can be tried on decline till it hold key levels as mentioned above..
STRENGTH: -
1. It is in the long-term uptrend.
2. It is
far-far above its most critical points of 21821.05---21801.45---21777.65---21776.87---21731.40---21727.75
& 21710.20, which is must to keep the up momentum going in the year 2024.
Sustained break below this range may witness accelerated fall.
3. All the
seven important technical indicators are positive on the daily chart, the buy
mode is on, huge positive divergence is there but in overbought zone, so it may
correct for a while and then may resume the up-move again.
4. It is above all its short term
moving averages on the daily chart and the important average range for the day
is between 24564----24475----24450----24348----24337----24203-------24083 (figure will change every day), sustained close above this range can help
it to extend the up-move.
5. It is way above its strong
pullback threshold point of 23974.50(figure
may change).
6. It is above its deep
correction threshold point of 24481.42 for
its recent rise.
7. It is above its key point of 24140.85 & 24131.10 which is essential to keep the up-momentum going in the
month of December-2024.
8. It has made higher top &
bottom on the line & bar chart both.
9. The price action was positive today.
WEAKNESS: -.
1. Please note that almost all indicators
on the weekly chart are negative indicates oversold condition, sell mode and
negative divergence and finally on the monthly chart it indicates overbought
condition and negative divergence.
2. Volatility and wild swing can
be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market
condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming
days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
3. It is into correction deep mode
now as it closed below some of the correction threshold points of 26043.29----25917.64---25714.81----25098.32-----25064.27----- (figures may change). The other
important correction threshold points are at 24625.43-----24521.63---24481.42-----24047.39-----23659.18---21848.52 (figure may change) and if it sustain below these
points correction will deepen.
TRADING CALL: --
1. Long
trade can be tried on decline if it holds the range of 24634-----24610
for some time with a stop loss of 24500 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid.
2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 24725—24755
with a stop loss of 24820 or can sell if it moves below24610
and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 24680. It could be
a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If
it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating
long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near
the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type
of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable
profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested
in any case.
Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at
all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the
above view.
Kindly note that make your cost your
stop loss in favorable trade
and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated here are of spot
market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
Email--- suranank@gmail.com
