CNX-BANK NIFTY
Open—52554.90--High—52555.50--Low—51999.75--Close—52191.50 on 26.11.2024.
Support:51996.65/51750.10/51138.90/51133.20/51000.90/50947.70/50865.45/50438.30/50382.10/50369.40/50194.30/49974.75/49904.40/49787.10/49688.80/49654.65/49057.40/48636.45/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/47363.40/46983.75/46077.85/45828.80/45661.75/44633.85/44429/43600.25/43345.45/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40.
Resistance:52354.85/52493.95/52577.50/52782.75/52794.95/53180.75/53357.70/53792.85/54247.70/54467.35.
OVERALL,
VIEW: --
It opened on a positive note and the open was almost the high
for the day and thereafter it had both side moves during the day and finally
ended, the day with a meager loss of 16 points. The gap it created on 25.11.2024 is still there and if it
makes an effort to fill the gap in next 3-4
trading sessions which is technically possible then it can come down to 51271 levels, but if it fails to fill
the gap in the stipulated time then the chances of filling the gap will recede
for the time being, but it will surely fill the gap someday, which may please
be noted.
After yesterdays strong up-move it consolidated today. Please note that if it holds the important points of 51902-----51886----51554---51402----51314 & 50891.64 (figure may change) on the closing basis then the up-move is likely to continue and the broad upside target could be 52355---52494----52578---52680----53363---53532, please note that it may correct at any of these point and then may resume the up-move again. Please note that break & sustained close below 51902 will push it into corrective mode for its very recent rise, break & sustained close below 51314 will threaten the long term uptrend again and close below 50891.64 (figure may change) may derail the on-going up move for a while. Therefore as of now its key support points are 51902---51314 & 50891.64.
The overall chart setup is still weak, but it showed good
improvement, it is still into the deep correction mode, but now it is above all
its short, medium and long term moving averages on the daily, weekly &
monthly chart which is a hugely positive sign for the continuation of the
up-move and if it sustain above it the up-move is surely going to extend.
Furthermore all the important technical
indicators have turned positive today on the daily chart and indicate that it
is in the buy mode with positive divergence. The only concerning thing is that
it is in the overbought zone, so it may correct. So all together indicators are giving positive signal;
therefore it is likely to move ahead further in coming days provided it holds
the key points as mentioned above.
The short & medium term trend is
bearish and the long term uptrend is intact now.
POSSIBLE MOVE ON THE
UPSIDE:-
Please note that if it holds the range of 51902-----51886----51554---51402----51314
& 50891.64 the up-move is likely to extend for sure.
Please note that to give thrust to the
up-move it has to move above 52355---52494----52578( it did tested all the three points
intraday today but could not sustain) and sustain on the closing basis and for the strong strength for the
continuation of the up-move it has to move above the range of 53331.55-----53357.70----53500.30(figure
may change) and sustain on the closing basis and it will get into the strong
up momentum track if it moves above 53531.30
& 53636.71(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis and then
it could retest its all-time high of 54467.35
or can go beyond it also.
POSSIBLE MOVE ON THE DOWNSIDE:-
Moving down from here it may find broad support at (for other support points see the table on
the upside) 51902-----51886----51609---51554----51402----51314---50956----50891.64----50632----50617-----50577-----50282----50199-----50261----50172-----49934----49847-----49654.65----49622----49520-----49201.72-----48636.45---48292.25---48203.45---47756(figures
may change),
it can bounce back from any of these points, please note that break &
sustained close below 51902 will push
it into corrective mode for its recent rise, break & sustained close below 51314 will threaten the long term
uptrend, break & sustained close below 50891.64
may end the possibility of the up move for a while, break & sustained
close below 50599 may trigger fresh
fall and thereafter break & close below each point will weaken it further,
but the range of 49979----49581 is the
last very strong bounce back support range, if it break & sustain below
this range on the closing basis, then it may have an accelerated fall. Please
note that sustained close below 49581 may potentially end the long term uptrend
for the time being and finally if it break the range of 48636.45---48292.25---48203.45---47756
and sustains on the closing basis then the correction could be more painful
price-wise & time-wise both, which may please be noted.
TECHNICAL
INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-
On the weekly chart almost all indicators are negative ,sell mode is on , there is huge negative divergence but the only comforting thing is that it is in oversold zone, so today’s up-move can extend a bit, so watch out. On the monthly chart it is in overbought zone and with huge negative divergence and poised to give sell signal may be this month end. Therefore all together indicators on the weekly & monthly chart as of now indicates that it is not yet out of woods and further fall is very much on the horizon in coming weeks and months. So keep a watch on the price action for further directional indication. The undertone is bearish as of now.
BUY ON DECLINE TILL IT HOLDS PULLBACK THRESHOLD POINT
& LONG TERM AVERAGE;-
It is into the deep correction mode but above its recent correction
threshold point of 51902, above long term moving average of 51314
and the pullback threshold point of 50891 therefore buy on decline is
suggested at appropriate support points till it holds the above points. But
sell trade can also be tried after reasonable rise in the appropriate range for
intraday corrective gains. So both side trades can be tried depending on the price
action for intraday gains.
STRENGTH: -
1. It is still
in the long-term uptrend
2. It is well
above its most critical points of 48203.45---48292.25 & 48636.45, please note that it must stay above all these
points to keep up the strong up momentum going in the year 2024.
3 It is well
above its strong pullback threshold point of 50891.64(figure may change), sustained
close above this point will help in extending the up-move.
4. It has
made higher top & bottom on the line chart again and higher top on the bar
chart..
5 The price action was positive today.
6. All the
seven important technical indicators are positive on the daily chart with buy
signal, positive divergence but in overbought zone.
7 It is above all its short-term moving averages now on the daily & weekly chart and the important average range for day is between 51609----51554-----51481----51397----51353-----51243----50916----50599(figure will change every day), sustained close above this range can help it extend the up-move.
WEAKNESS: -
1. Volatility
and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign
for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically
in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
2. Please
note that indicators, on the weekly chart is oversold (so it may rally a bit),
but in sell mode and with huge negative divergence & monthly chart,
indicating overbought condition, sell signal and negative divergence too.
3. It is
into deep correction mode as it is below some of the correction threshold
points of 53636.71-----53500.30---53331.55--52487.43--- (figures may change). The other important correction threshold points are at 52098.30----52015.06---- 51902-----51549.93---- 51492.11
---- 50725.73----
49201.72---45416.49 (figure may change) and if it sustain below these points correction
will deepen.
TRADING CALL: --
1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 52052------52000 with a stop loss of 51870 or can try long trade if it moves
above 52265 and maintain for some
time with a stop loss of 52000 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in
a corrective market could be a risky bet but can be tried at critical support
point with strict stop loss for intraday gain.
2. Short
trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 52650---52750 with
a stop loss of 52850 or can sell if it moves below 51870 and
maintain for some time with a stop loss of 52060. It could
be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up
with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long
position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the
selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of
trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit
margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any
case.
Disclaimer:-The view
expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any
way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that
make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and
then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses.
Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss
points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated
here are of spot market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Email—suranank@gmail.com
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
