CNX-NIFTY
Open—23605.30—High—23606.80---Low---23350.40---Close----23453.80 on 18.11.2024.
Support:23350/23338.70/23110.80/22794.70/22775.70/22525.65/22303.80/21875.25/21860.25/21821.05/21777.65/21710.20/21530.20/21281.45/21137.20/20976.80.
Resistance:23484.15/23664/23667.20/23816.15/23893.70/24073.90/24094.20/24099.70/24141.80/24472.80/24498.20/24537.60/24694.35/24753.15/24854.80/25078.30/25234.05/25285.55/25333.65/25445.70/25871.35/26277.35/26328/26995/27095/27212/27293/27381.
OVERALL,
VIEW: --
It opened on a positive note and thereafter
had volatile moves on the both sides during the day and finally ended the day
with a loss of 78.90 points. It is way below its crucial point of 23893.70 and almost
below all other critical points too and if it sustains below it then fall may
accelerate but now it is near its last strong support range of 23430(figure
will change every day)---23350 which is supposed to be a strong bounce back range
and it fell within this range intraday today but bounced back and managed to
close above it, furthermore it has been falling for the last 7 days and it is
in the oversold zone ,therefore despite weakness in the chart setup it is
likely to stage a bounce back from here in a day or two, but if it breaks this range
and sustain then it may have free fall. Therefore it is suggested that long
trade can only be tried if it moves above 23893.70 and sustain on the closing
basis or near or within the range of 23430---23350 with strict stop losses,
else avoid because now it is sell on the rise market in general.
The overall chart setup is weak; it is
already into the deep correction mode. It is below all its short & medium term moving averages
on the daily chart, also below all short & few medium term moving averages
on the weekly chart & below some short term moving average on the monthly
chart also and most importantly it is also below almost all the long terms
moving average on the daily chart, therefore long term uptrend is under severe
threat, which is very concerning. It has broken recent bottom on the line &
bar chart both, furthermore all the important technical indicators are negative
and sell mode is on and positive divergence has also been negated on the daily
chart which indicates that further fall may be ahead in coming days. The
short & medium term trend is bearish and it has threatened the long term uptrend
and the threat will only dissipate once it moves above 23541----23564----23662—23682---24088---24203
& 24329(figure will change daily) and sustain on the closing basis.
HEAD & SHOULDER PATTERN VISIBLE ON
THE DAILY CHART:-
It has decisively broken the neckline
today which is placed at 24753.15 and if it sustains below it then the maximum
downside could be in the range of 23200---23100. Please note that if it bounce
back above 24753.15 and sustain then this pattern will be negated and it may
resume the strong uptrend. This is a very powerful pattern and rarely fails.
POSSIBLE
MOVE ON THE DOWNSIDE:-
Moving down from
here it may find good support at 23447----23430----23350—23338.70---23110.80---22794.70----22775(few figures may change daily). Please note that it is below its key & crucial support
point of 23893.70 and if it sustain below it on the closing basis then the
correction could be more painful price-wise and time-wise both. But moving
down further it has only one last critical & strong support range of 23430----23350,
which
is a strong bounce back point therefore it is likely to stage a recovery from
here and it did stage a recovery , but the undertone is very weak and if it break
and sustained below this range on the closing basis then it will potentially end the long term uptrend for the time being and may
seek much lower levels in coming days.
POSSIBLE
MOVE ON THE UPSIDE:-
Please
note that to give a ray of hope to regain up movement again it has to move
above the range of its critical points of 23630.58---23893.70----24041.16----24329(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis, if it moves above 23630.58(weak pullback threshold point)
and sustain on the closing basis then it may have a feeble up-move, the decider
point is 23893.70 if it moves and
sustain above it on the closing basis then it could somewhat ensure that the
up-move can extend further, if it moves above 24041.16(strong pullback threshold
point) and sustain on the closing basis then it will make sure that the up-move can extend further
for sure, if it moves above 24329 and sustain on the closing basis, then it will end the long term uptrend
threat and if it moves above 24753.15 and sustain on the closing basis then it is likely that it will
strongly extend the up-move and may resume the big up-move too. But to gain a
strong foothold for the continuation of the up move it has to move above the
range of 24642---24709---25018(figure may change) and
sustain on the closing basis, and if it moves above 25377----25643----25714.81
& 25917.64(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis then it
may gain extraordinary strength and it will get into the good up momentum track
if it moves above 26043.29 (figure may change) and sustain on the
closing basis.
TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE
DAILY, WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-
It is important to mention here that it is
having see-saw movement quite often with huge volatility, which is not good
sign for a steady market, the overbought condition on the monthly chart is still present, but on the daily & weekly chart it is in the oversold zone now, sell mode and positive divergence negated, therefore
it has to be seen how it pans out in the next few trading sessions because the overall technical setup is still very
weak on the daily, weekly & monthly chart and most importantly huge negative divergence is there on the weekly & monthly chart and sell
mode is also there on the weekly chart, so all together these
developments are painting a mix picture now, so keep a watch on the price
action for further directional indication. As of now as expected down move is
on and the undertone is hugely bearish, but it can have a relief rally anytime
soon and nothing much is expected.
IT
IS SELL ON THE RISE MARKET NOW IN GENERAL;-
It is
into the correction mode therefore it is sell on rise market now in general
till it gets out of the correction mode or give visible sign of correction
completion, but aggressive traders can try both side trades depending on the price
action for intraday gains, but long trade could be a risky affair.
STRENGTH: -
1. It is still in the long-term uptrend; but uptrend
is threatened.
2. It is far-far
above its most critical points of 21821.05---21801.45---21777.65---21776.87---21731.40---21727.75
& 21710.20, which is must to keep the up momentum going in the year 2024.
Sustained break below this range may witness accelerated fall.
3. Some
technical indicators suggest oversold condition, so it may have a relief rally
anytime soon.
WEAKNESS: -.
1. All the seven important technical indicators on the
daily chart are negative, indicating oversold condition, sell signal triggered ,
almost all indicators on the weekly chart are also negative indicates oversold condition,
sell mode and negative divergence and finally on the monthly chart it indicates
overbought condition and negative divergence.
2. Volatility and wild swing can
be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market
condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming
days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
3. It is into correction deep mode
now as it closed below some of the correction threshold points of 26043.29----25917.64---25714.81----25106.68----25098.32-----25064.27-----24521.63--- 24367.34--24047.39----23659.18--- (figures may change). The other
important correction threshold points are at 21848.52 (figure may change) and if it sustain below these points
correction will deepen.
4. It is below almost all its
short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average
range for the day is between 23886----23961----24023----24072----24165---24177---24183---24290----24596---24642--24709 (figure will change every day), sustained close below this range can
accelerate the down move.
5. It is below its strong
pullback threshold point of 24041.16(figure
may change).
6. The price action was weak today.
7. It threatened the long term uptrend
as it is below almost all its important threshold point of 23541----23564----23662—23682---24088---24203
& 24329(figure will change daily).
8. It has broken its recent bottom on the line &
bar chart both.
TRADING CALL: --
1. Long
trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 23430---23390 with
a stop loss of 23330 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky bet
but can be tried at critical support point with strict stop loss for intraday
gain.
2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 23650—23700
with a stop loss of 23760 or can sell if it moves below 23350
and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 23450. It could be a risky trade but can be
tried for intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If
it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating
long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near
the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type
of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable
profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested
in any case.
Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at
all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the
above view.
Kindly note that make your cost your
stop loss in favorable trade
and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated here are of spot
market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
Email--- suranank@gmail.com
