CNX-BANK NIFTY
Open—52258.95--High—52377.25--Low—51752.25--Close—51916.50 on 7.11.2024.
Resistance:51996.65/52199.45/52354.85/52577.50/52782.75/52794.95/53357.70/53741.40/54467.35/54593/54604/54772/54815/54924/55097/55209/55444/55646/55827/56135/56218.
OVERALL,
VIEW: --
It opened on a negative note and thereafter had both side
moves during the day and finally ended the day with a loss of 400.90 points.
The overall chart setup is still weak; it is still into the deep correction
mode for its earlier rise and today it slipped into corrective mode for its
recent rise also. But it is above all its short & majorly above medium term
moving averages on the daily, weekly & monthly chart, it crossed its
previous top on the line chart, furthermore few important technical indicators are positive on the
daily chart and in the buy mode therefore all developments together still
indicates that it can extend the up-move in the coming days, provided it holds the range of 51838-----51769---51704---51652----51550.15---51475.35----51202.74
& 51158(figure may change) and particularly above 51202.74 & 51133 on the closing basis ,else it may start to
drift down again. Similarly it may pick up speed once it moves above 52355 & 52578 and sustain on the
closing basis. The
short & medium term bias is down, but the long term uptrend is still
intact.
It is important to mention
here that to keep the up momentum going in the month of November-2024, it has
to maintain above 51550.15---51475.35----51202.74---51158(some figure may
change daily) and sustain on the closing basis, then the up-move can extend,
else it may lose the steam and start moving down.
POSSIBLE MOVE ON THE
UPSIDE:-
Please note that if it holds the range of 51838-----51769---51704---51652----51550.15---51475.35----51202.74
& 51158(figure may change) particularly above 51202.74 & 51158 on the closing basis then the broad upside
target could be 52138---52355----52577---52835----53459----53613,
it can correct at any of these points and may resume the up-move again or the
rally may fizzle out for good also, but sustained break & close below 51202.74 & 51158 may end the possibility of an up-move for a
while and it may head down. Please note that to gain a strong foothold it has
to move above 52355---52487.43----52577.50 and sustain on the closing basis and for the
strong strength for the continuation of the up-move it has to move above the range of 53331.55-----53357.70----53500.30(figure
may change) and sustain on the closing basis and it will get into the strong
up momentum track if it moves above 53613
& 53636.71(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis and then
it could retest its all-time high of 54467.35
or can go beyond it also.
POSSIBLE MOVE ON THE DOWNSIDE:-
Moving down from here it may find broad support at (for other support points see the table on
the upside) 51838-----51769---51704---51652----51550.15---51475.35----51202.74-----51158-----50885----50834-----50725.76----50617------50570-----50511---50194----50166----49931-----49851----49654.65------49612-----49609-----49540----49278-----49201.72-----48636.45---48292.25---48203.45---47756(figures
may change),
it can bounce back from any of these points, but break & sustained close
below 52015.06 will push it into
correction mode for its recent rise and thereafter break & sustained close
below each point will weaken it ,break & sustained close below 51202.74 & 51158 may end the
possibility of a continued up –move for the time being. Please note that the range of 51158----50885----50834-----50725----50617---50570-----50511----50194---50166
and then 49931----49851-----49654.65----49612---49609----49540----49278(figure
will change every day) is a very strong bounce back support range, but break
& sustained close below 51158 will threaten the long term uptrend and
thereafter break & close below each point will weaken it further, break and
sustained close below 49278 may potentially end the long term uptrend for the
time being and finally if it break the range of 48636.45---48292.25---48203.45---47756
and sustains on the closing basis then the correction could be more painful
price-wise & time-wise both, which may please be noted.
TECHNICAL
INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY, WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-
It is important to mention here that it is having a see-saw movement quite often with huge volatility, which is not good sign for a steady market, now again the overbought condition is there on the daily, weekly and monthly chart, some indicators triggered buy signal also but few technical indicators are still weak and most importantly huge negative divergence is there on the daily, weekly and monthly chart , so all together these developments are painting a mixed picture now , so watch out for the next 1-2 trading sessions how it pans out eventually. But all indication together based on the indicators on the daily, weekly & monthly chart is pointing that it could head down again and may seek lower levels in coming days with intermittent relief rallies once this on-going up move is over, so keep a watch on the price action for directional indication. Please note that break and sustained close below 51202.74 &51133(figure may change) will possibly end the on-going up-move, else chances of up-move will be alive.
IT IS SELL ON THE RISE MARKET NOW IN GENERAL;-
It is into the deep correction
mode therefore it is sell on rise market now in general till it gets out of the
correction mode or give visible sign of correction completion, but aggressive
traders can try both side trades depending on the price action for intraday
gains, but long trade could be a risky affair.
STRENGTH: -
1. It is still
in the long-term uptrend; break below 51158 will threaten the long term
uptrend.
2. It is well
above its most critical points of 48203.45---48292.25 & 48636.45, please note that it must stay above all these
points to keep up the strong up momentum going in the year 2024.
3. It is
above its weak & strong pullback threshold point of 50900.11 & 51202.74(figure
may change) respectively, price above these points may help it extend the
up-move.
4. Four out of seven important indicators is positive on the daily chart, indicating overbought condition, but in buy mode also.
5. It has
made higher top on the line chart..
6 It is
above all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the
important average range for day is between 51652---51698---51704----51769--51804----51834(figure will change every day), sustained close above this range will help to
extend the up-move..
WEAKNESS: -
1. Volatility
and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign
for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically
in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
2. Three out
of seven important indicators on the daily chart are negative , given negative divergence,
in the overbought/neutral zone, but buy signal is on. Please note that indicators,
on the weekly & monthly chart, also indicating overbought condition, sell
signal and negative divergence too.
3. It is
into deep correction mode as it is below some of the correction threshold
points of 53636.71-----53500.30---53331.55--52487.43---52098.30----52015.06----
(figures may change). The other important
correction threshold points are at 51549.93----51492.11 ---- 50725.73----49201.72---45416.49 (figure may change) and if it
sustain below these points correction will deepen.
4 The price action was weak today.
5. It slipped
into correction mode for its recent rise today as it closed below its threshold
point of 52015.06(figure may change).
TRADING CALL: --
1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 51750----51650 with a stop loss of 51450 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in
a corrective market could be a risky bet but can be tried at critical support
point with strict stop loss for intraday gain.
2. Short
trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 52350---52400 with
a stop loss of 52590 or can sell below 51750 with a stop loss of 51950
It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up
with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long
position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the
selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of
trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit
margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any
case.
Disclaimer:-The view
expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any
way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that
make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and
then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated
here are of spot market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Email—suranank@gmail.com
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
