CNX-NIFTY
Open-23916.50--High-24229.05—Low---23842.75--Close-24213.30 on 5.11.2024.
Support:24141.80/24099.70/24074.20/23893.70/23667.20/23664/23350/23338.20/23110.80/22794.70/22775.70/22526.60.
Resistance:24472.80/24498.20/24567.65/24694.35/24753.15/24854.80/24885.15/24978.30/25078.30/25285.55/25333.65/25445.70/25847.35/26277.35/26328/26995/27095/27212/27293/27381.
OVERALL,
VIEW: --
It opened on a negative note and thereafter
it had both side move s during the day and finally ended the day with a gain of
217.95 points. As
anticipated it gave a relief rally today but how long it will last has to be
seen in the next-2-3 trading sessions because, the overall chart
setup is very weak, it is already into the deep correction mode and also into
correction mode for its recent rise, it is still below all its short
& medium term moving averages on the daily chart and below all short term
moving averages on the weekly chart and most importantly below few long term
moving averages also which is very concerning, because long term uptrend is threatened,
it still has lower top & bottom a and finally all the important technical
indicators are negative now except for positive divergence which can extend the
up-move to some extent, but majorly all the developments together indicates
that further fall looks inevitable in coming days with in between relief rallies
after today’s rally cools off. The short & medium term trend is
bearish and it has threatened the long term uptrend and the threat will only
dissipate once it moves above 24289(figure will change daily) and sustain on
the closing basis.
Please note that it is important to mention here that
to keep the up momentum going in the month of November-2024, it has to maintain
above 24150.77---24205.35----24289----
24302.70---24397- (some figure may change daily) and sustain
on the closing basis, then the up-can extend, but it is below this range now
which is very concerning and if it stays below it longer then it can head down again. It is important to mention here that its
key support point is at 23893(it broke this point intraday today but bounced
back to close above it) and then it has bed of support in the range of 23787----23348,
so this a very strong bounce back range and it is likely to stage a recovery
once from this range, but break & sustained close below the above range may
witness an accelerated down move.
HEAD & SHOULDER PATTERN VISIBLE ON
THE DAILY CHART:-
It has decisively broken the neckline
today which is placed at 24753.15 and if it sustains below it then the maximum
downside could be in the range of 23200---23100. Please note that if it bounce
back above 24753.15 and sustain then this pattern will be negated. This is a
very powerful pattern and rarely fails.
POSSIBLE
MOVE ON THE UPSIDE:-
Please
note that its crucial & critical key points are 25106.68---24753.15----24397---24302.75----24283-----24205.35----24150.77(figure
may change), it is below almost all the points except 24205.35---24150.77 if it
sustains above it on the closing basis it can have a feeble up-move, if it
moves above 24289----24302.75(figure may
change) and sustain on the closing basis then it will get slight strength
to move-up further, if it moves above 24397(strong pullback threshold point,
figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis then there is a strong possibility
that the up move can extend for sure, if it moves above 24753.15 and sustain on the closing basis then it is likely that it
will strongly extend the up-move and may resume the big up-move too, and if it
moves above 25106.68(correction threshold point for its
recent rise, figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis then it
will come out of corrective mode for its recent rise and it may provide
firmness for the continuation of the up-move. But to gain a strong foothold for
the continuation of the up move it has to move above the range of 24417---24554---24592---24780----24845---(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis, and if it moves above 25200----25600----25714.81
& 25917.64(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis then it
may gain good strength and it will get into the good up momentum track if it
moves above 26043.29 (figure may change) and sustain on the closing
basis.
POSSIBLE
MOVE ON THE DOWNSIDE:-
Moving down from
here it may find good support at 24170----24106----24099.70---24074.20---24053----23893.70-----23787----23623-----23582-----23509----23467----23395----23345(few figures may change daily) it can bounce back from any of these points, but break & close
below each point will weaken it. Please note that its key support point is
23893.70 levels, break and sustained close below this point may trigger fresh
big down move and if sustain below this point on the closing basis then the
correction could be more painful price-wise and time-wise both. But please
note that even if it breaks the above support point of 23893.70 moving
down it has bed of strong support range between 23623----23345,
therefore it is likely to
stage a recovery from this range but
break and sustained close below this range will
potentially end the long term uptrend for the time being and may seek much
lower levels.
TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE
DAILY, WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-
It is important to mention here that it is
having see-saw movement quite often with huge volatility, which is not good
sign for a steady market, the overbought condition on the monthly chart is still present, but on the daily & weekly chart it is in the oversold or in the neutral zone
now, and positive divergence is there on the daily chart, which can possibly
take it to 24300+ level as of now, as envisaged it rallied today but it
has to be seen how it behaves in the 2-3 days because the overall
technical setup is very weak and most importantly huge negative divergence is there on the weekly & monthly chart and sell
mode is also there on the daily & weekly chart, so all together
these developments are concerning, therefore, all indication together based on the
indicators on the daily, weekly & monthly chart is pointing that fall looks
inevitable in coming days may be with an in between short relief rally at times
once today’s up-move is over.
IT
IS SELL ON THE RISE MARKET NOW IN GENERAL;-
It is
into the correction mode therefore it is sell on rise market now in general
till it gets out of the correction mode or give visible sign of correction
completion, but aggressive traders can try both side trades depending on the price
action for intraday gains, but long trade could be a risky affair.
STRENGTH: -
1. It is still in the long-term uptrend, but
uptrend is threatened.
2. It is
far-far above its most critical points of 21821.05---21801.45---21777.65---21776.87---21731.40---21727.75
& 21710.20, which is must to keep the up momentum going in the year 2024.
Sustained break below this range may witness accelerated fall.
3. Two out
of seven technical indicators are positive indicates oversold condition and
positive divergence, which can pull the index from here, so watch-out.
WEAKNESS: -.
1. Five out of seven important technical indicators on the
daily chart are negative, indicating oversold condition, sell mode, all indicators
on the weekly chart are also negative
indicates overbought condition, sell mode and negative divergence and finally
on the monthly chart also it indicates overbought condition and negative
divergence.
2. Volatility and wild swing can
be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market
condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming
days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
3. It is into correction mode now
as it closed below some of the correction threshold points of 26043.29----25917.64---25714.81----25106.68----25098.32-----25064.27-----24521.63--- (figures may change). The other
important correction threshold points are at 24047.39---- 23659.18---21848.52 (figure may change) and if it sustain below these
points correction will deepen.
4. It is below almost all its
short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average
range for the day is between 24245---24288----24328----24417----24554---24592---24845---24971 (figure will change every day), sustained close below this range can
accelerate the down move.
5. It is below its strong
pullback threshold point of 24397(figure
may change) and also below weak pullback threshold point of 24150.77(figure may change).
6. The price action was mixed today.
7. It has made lower top &
bottom again on the line and bar chart both.
8. Its long term uptrend is threatened
as it is below few of its long term moving averages placed at 24289(figure will change every day) for the day.
TRADING CALL: --
1. Long
trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 24170----24140 with
a stop loss of 24060 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky bet
but can be tried at critical support point with strict stop loss for intraday
gain.
2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 24400—24460
with a stop loss of 24520 or can sell if it moves below 24073 with a stop loss of 24150 It could be a risky trade but can
be tried for intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If
it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating
long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near
the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type
of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable
profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested
in any case.
Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at
all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the
above view.
Kindly note that make your cost your
stop loss in favorable trade
and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated here are of spot
market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
Email--- suranank@gmail.com
