CNX-BANK NIFTY
Open—51117.80--High—51551.55--Low—51107.90--Close—51239 on 23.10.2024.
Support:51138.90/51133.20/51000.90/50947.70/50369.40/49974.75/49654.65/49530.45/49057.40/48636.45/48313.60/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/47435.75/46983.75/46579/46077.85.
Resistance:51750.10/51996.65/52199.45/52340.25/52782.75/52794.95/53357.70/53741.40/54467.35/54593/54604/54772/54815/54924/55097/55209/55444/55646/55827/56135/56218.
OVERALL,
VIEW: --
It opened on a negative note and thereafter had both side
moves during the day and finally ended the day flat with a meager loss of 18.15 points.
The overall chart setup is weak, it is already
into the deep correction mode for earlier rise, it is also into correction mode
for its recent rise as it is below its threshold point of 52015.06(figure may change) today, it is below all its short term & below almost all medium term moving
averages on the daily chart and almost below all short term moving averages on
the weekly chart and broken its recent bottom of 51288.80 on the line
chart, all together it is a weak sign and if it sustains below the averages on
the closing basis then further fall looks certain. Furthermore almost all the
important technical indicators are still negative on the daily chart and this
is concerning, and
indicates that further fall cannot be ruled out in coming days with
intermittent relief rallies and the down move is on. It is in the long term uptrend as of now but
the short & medium term bias is still bearish as of now. The undertone is
weak.
POSSIBLE MOVE ON THE DOWNSIDE:-
Moving down from here it may find broad support at (for other support points see the table on
the upside) 51202.74-----50914-----50801------50725.76----50729-----50617-----50592-----50427-----50276---49949----49708-----49700----49654.65------49426-----49335----49201.72-----49052-----48636.45---48292.25---48203.45---47756(figures
may change),
it can bounce back from any of these points, break & sustained close below 51202.74 (good bounce back point)may end the possibility of a sustained up
move for the time being. Please note
that the range of 50914-----50801-----50729----50427---50276 and then 49949---49708---49700----49654.65---49335(figure
will change every day) is a very strong bounce back support range, but break
& sustained close below 50914 will threaten the long term uptrend and
thereafter break & close below each point will weaken it further, break and
sustained close below 49052 will potentially threaten the long term uptrend and
finally if it break the range of 48636.45---48292.25---48203.45---47756 and sustains on the closing
basis then the correction could be more painful price-wise & time-wise both,
which may please be noted.
POSSIBLE MOVE ON THE UPSIDE:-
The only good thing it that it is still above its strong pullback
threshold point of 51202.74(figure may change) despite today’s volatile session. Please
note that as long as it sustains above it on the closing basis the chances of
up move will be alive and the possible broad upside target could be 51827----52331----52835---53459----53613---53639.71. Please note that to gain a strong foothold
it has to move above 51637----51790----52005----52015.06---52487.43(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis, and if it moves above the
range of 53331.55-----53357.70----53383----53500.30(figure
may change) and sustain on the closing basis it may gain good strength for
the continuation of the up move and it will get into the strong up momentum
track if it moves above 53613 &
53636.71(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis.
TECHNICAL
INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY, WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-
It is important to mention here that it is having a see-saw movement quite often with huge volatility, which is not good sign for a steady market, the overbought condition on the monthly chart is still present, but on the daily & weekly chart it is slightly oversold or may be neutral at this point of time, and showing a positive divergence on the daily chart so it may have pullback again , but pullback rallies are treacherous in nature and may end abruptly because the overall technical indicators are weak and most importantly huge negative divergence is there on the weekly chart and it appeared on the monthly chart too and sell mode is also there on the daily & weekly chart as of now and it appeared on the monthly chart also , so all together these developments are concerning, therefore, all indication together based on the indicators on the daily, weekly & monthly chart is pointing that it could head down in coming days and may seek much lower levels in coming days. So please be alert and cautiously approach the market now.
IT IS SELL ON THE RISE MARKET NOW IN GENERAL;-
It is into the deep correction
mode therefore it is sell on rise market now in general till it gets out of the
correction mode or give visible sign of correction completion, but aggressive
traders can try both side trades depending on the price action for intraday
gains, but long trade could be a risky affair.
NOTE: - IT IS INTO DEEP
CORRECTION MODE FOR EARLIER RISE AND IN CORRECTIVE MODE FOR ITS RECENT RISE, LONG
TRADE CAN BE TRIED IF IT HOLDS 51202.74 LEVELS (FIGURE MAY CHANGE), ELSE AVOID.
STRENGTH: -
1. It is in
the long-term uptrend, but break and close below 50914 will threaten the
uptrend.
2. It is well
above its most critical points of 48203.45---48292.25 & 48636.45, please note that it must stay above all these
points to keep up the strong up momentum going in the year 2024.
3. Two out
of seven important indicators is positive on the daily chart, indicating
oversold or neutral condition and slight positive divergence now..
4. It is
above its strong pullback threshold point of 51202.74(figure may change).
WEAKNESS: -
1. Volatility
and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign
for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically
in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
2. Five out
of seven important indicators on the daily chart are negative and in sell mode,
given negative divergence, but in oversold zone now, so it may give a relief
rally before sliding down further as it did today. Please note that indicators,
on the weekly & monthly chart, also indicating overbought condition, sell
signal and negative divergence too.
3. It is
into correction mode today as it closed below some of the correction threshold
points of 53636.71-----53500.30---53331.55--52487.43---52098.30----52015.06----51549.93----
51492.11---- (figures may change). The other important correction threshold points are at 50725.73----49201.72---45416.49 (figure may change) and if it
sustain below these points correction will deepen.
4. It is below
its correction threshold point of 52015.06(figure may change) for its
recent rise.
5 The price action was weak today.
6. It has
broken its recent bottom on the line chart.
7. It is
below all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the
important average range for day is between 51596---51607---51613----51637---51790---52005(figure will change every day), sustained close below this range can
accelerate the down move..
TRADING CALL: --
1. Long trade can be tried if it holds 51202.74
level for some time with a stop loss of 50980 for a possible
intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective
market could be a risky bet but can be tried at critical support point with
strict stop loss for intraday gain.
2. Short
trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 51550---51600 with
a stop loss of 51750 or can sell if it moves below 50980 with a
stop loss of 51250 It
could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up
with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long
position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the
selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of
trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit
margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any
case.
Disclaimer:-The view
expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any
way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that
make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and
then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated
here are of spot market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Email—suranank@gmail.com
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
