CNX-BANK NIFTY
Open—51849.30--High—51930.20--Low—51150.25--Close—51288.80 on 17.10.2024.
Support:51138.90/51133.20/50947.70/50369.40/49974.75/49654.65/49530.45/49057.40/48636.45/48313.60/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/47435.75/46983.75/46579/46077.85.
Resistance:51750.10/51996.65/52340.25/52782.75/52794.95/53357.70/53741.40/54467.35/54593/54604/54772/54815/54924/55097/55209/55444/55646/55827/56135/56218.
OVERALL,
VIEW: --
It opened on a positive note and thereafter it had both side
moves during the day and finally ended the day with a loss of 512.25 points. As envisaged it seems that the
on-going up move has fizzled out. The overall chart setup is weak, it is already
into the deep correction mode, it slipped into correction mode today for its
recent rise as it closed way below its threshold point of 51598(figure can change), it
is still below all its short term moving averages and below few medium term
moving averages on the daily chart and below almost all short term moving averages
on the weekly chart also and almost all the important technical indicators are
negative now, therefore
all developments together indicates that further fall looks inevitable in
coming days with in between relief rallies and it seems that the process has
begun. It is in the long term
uptrend as of now but the short & medium term bias is hugely bearish as of
now
POSSIBLE MOVE ON THE DOWNSIDE:-
Moving down from here it may find broad support at (for other support points see the table on
the upside) 51202.74-----50815-----50761------50725.76----50670-----50617--------50371-----50185---49860----49763-----49654.65------49620----49256----49201.72-----48982-----48636.45---48292.25---48203.45---47756(figures
may change),
it can bounce back from any of these points, break & sustained close below 51202.74 may end the possibility of a
sustained up move for the time being. Please
note that the range of 50815-----50761-----50670----50371---50185 and then 49860---49763---49654.65---49620--49256(figure
will change every day) is a very strong bounce back support range, but break
& sustained close below 50815 will threaten the long term uptrend and
thereafter break & close below each point will weaken it further, break and
sustained close below 48982 will potentially threaten the long term uptrend and
finally if it break the range of 48636.45---48292.25---48203.45---47756 and sustains on the closing
basis then the correction could be more painful price-wise & time-wise
both.
POSSIBLE MOVE ON THE UPSIDE:-
The good thing is that it still has short higher top & bottom on the
line chart and it is above its
pullback threshold point of 51202.74(figure may change). Please note that as long as it
sustains above it on the closing basis
the chances of up move will be alive, but break and sustained close
below 51202.74 may end the
possibility of moving up for the time being and can drag it down to lower levels. Please note that to gain a strong foothold it
has to move above the range of 51348----51477-----51681----51885---51891-----52422----52487.43(figure
may change) and sustain
on the closing basis, and if it moves above the range of 53240----53331.55-----53357.70----53500.30(figure may change) and
sustain on the closing basis it may gain good strength for the continuation of
the up move and it will get into the strong up momentum track if it moves above
53613 & 53636.71(figure may change)
and sustain on the closing basis.
TECHNICAL
INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY, WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-
It is important to mention here that it is having a see-saw movement quite often with huge volatility, which is not good sign for a steady market, the overbought condition on the weekly and monthly chart is still present, but on the daily chart it was oversold for some time but now it is mixed , the on-going rally had halted today and may end also because these rallies are weak in nature and may end abruptly because the overall technical setup is weak and most importantly huge negative divergence is there on the daily & weekly chart and it appeared on the monthly chart too and sell mode also triggered on the daily & weekly chart , so all together these developments are concerning, therefore, all indication together based on few indicators on the daily, weekly & monthly chart is pointing that it could head down in coming days and may seek much lower levels and the process has begun. So please be alert and cautiously approach the market.
IT IS SELL ON THE RISE MARKET NOW IN GENERAL;-
It is into the
correction mode therefore it is sell on rise market now in general till it gets
out of the correction mode or give visible sign of correction completion, but aggressive
traders can try both side trades depending on the price action for intraday
gains, but long trade could be a risky affair.
NOTE: - IT IS INTO DEEP
CORRECTION MODE, LONG TRADE CAN BE TRIED IF IT HOLDS 51202.74 LEVELS (FIGURE MAY CHANGE).
STRENGTH: -
1. It is in
the long-term uptrend.
2. It is well
above its most critical points of 48203.45---48292.25 & 48636.45, please note that it must stay above all these
points to keep up the strong up momentum going in the year 2024.
3. One out
of seven important indicators is positive on the daily chart, indicating
oversold/overbought condition both.
4. It still
has short higher top & bottom on the line chart.
5. It is
above its pullback threshold point of 51202.74(figure may change).
WEAKNESS: -
1. Volatility
and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign
for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically
in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
2. Five out
of seven important indicators on the daily chart are negative and in sell mode,
given negative divergence, but in oversold zone now, so it may give a relief
rally before sliding down further as it did today. Please note that indicators,
on the weekly & monthly chart, also indicating overbought condition, sell
signal and negative divergence too.
3. It is
into correction mode today as it closed below some of the correction threshold
points of 53636.71-----53500.30---53331.55--52487.43---52098.30---51549.93----51492.11 (figures may change). The other important
correction threshold points are at ------50725.73----49201.72---45416.49 (figure may change) and if it
sustain below these points correction will deepen.
4. It is
below all of its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the
important average range for today is between 51348---51477---51681----51885---51891---52422(figure will change every day), sustained close below this range can
accelerate the down move.
5 The price action was negative today.
TRADING CALL: --
1. Long trade can be tried on decline near 51200 if it holds this point for some time with a stop loss of 51000 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in
a corrective market could be a risky bet but can be tried at critical support
point with strict stop loss for intraday gain.
2. Short
trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 51680---51750 with
a stop loss of 51850 or can sell if it moves below 51150 with a
stop loss of 51350. It could be a risky trade but can be tried
for intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up
with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long
position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the
selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of
trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit
margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any
case.
Disclaimer:-The view
expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any
way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that
make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and
then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated
here are of spot market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Email—suranank@gmail.com
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
