CNX-BANK NIFTY
Open—51975.95--High—52022.05--Low—51698.75--Close—51906 on 15.10.2024.
Support:51750.10/51138.90/51133.20/50947.70/50369.40/49974.75/49654.65/49530.45/49057.40/48636.45/48313.60/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/47435.75/46983.75/46579/46077.85.
Resistance:51996.65/52340.25/52782.75/52794.95/53357.70/53741.40/54467.35/54593/54604/54772/54815/54924/55097/55209/55444/55646/55827/56135/56218.
OVERALL, VIEW: --
It opened on a positive note and thereafter had both side
moves during the day and finally ended the day with a gain of 89.10
points. The overall chart setup is
still weak, it is already into the deep correction mode, it is still below few of its short term
moving averages and below few medium term moving averages on the daily chart
and below few short term moving averages on the weekly chart also and almost
all the important technical indicators are negative now, therefore all developments together
indicates that further fall looks inevitable in coming days with in between
relief rallies. It is important to mention here that the on-going up move is
just a pullback rally and can fizzle-out abruptly also.
The good thing is that it is making higher top & bottom on the line
chart, it is still above its correction threshold point
of 51590.70(figure may change) and pullback threshold point of 51202.74(figure may change), which is a positive sign for moving
up further. Please note that if it sustains above these points on the closing
basis then the broad upside target could be 52331---52835----53459----53613, it may correct at any of these
points then either it may resume the up move or the rally may fizzle out for
good, but if it moves above 53613
and sustain on the closing basis then it could retest its all-time high of 54467.35 or may go beyond it also.
But break & close below 51590.70 will push it into correction mode for
its recent rise and break and sustained close below 51202.74 may end the possibility of moving up for the time being
and can drag it down to lower levels.
Please note that to gain a strong foothold it has to move above the range
of 51963---52074----52515 and sustain on the closing basis, and if it moves above the
range of 53168----53331.55-----53357.70----53500.30(figure
may change) and sustain on the closing basis it may gain good strength for
the continuation of the up move and it will get into the good up momentum track
if it moves above 53613 & 53636.71(figure
may change) and sustain on the closing basis.
It is important to mention here that it is having a see-saw movement quite often with huge volatility, which is not good sign for a steady market, the overbought condition on the weekly and monthly chart is still present, but on the daily chart it is in the oversold zone now, so it may stage a relief rally and it is on but these rallies are weak in nature and may end abruptly because the overall technical setup is weak and most importantly huge negative divergence is there on the daily & weekly chart and it appeared on the monthly chart too and sell mode also triggered on the daily & weekly chart , so all together these developments are concerning, therefore, all indication together based on few indicators on the daily, weekly & monthly chart is pointing that it could head down in coming days and may seek much lower levels. So please be alert and cautiously approach the market. It is in the long term uptrend as of but the short & medium term bias is bearish as of now.
Moving down from here it may find broad support at (for other support points see the table on
the upside) 51770------51590.70-----51516-----51446----51202.74-----50725.76----50768-----50734------50641-----50617--------50336-----50136---49817----49775-----49654.65------49586----49212----49201.72-----48949-----48636.45---48292.25---48203.45---47756(figures
may change), it
can bounce back from any of these points, It is already into the deep
correction mode, break & sustained close below 51590.70 will push it into correction mode for its very recent rise but
as long as it holds 51202.74 on the
closing basis chances of up move will be alive. Please note that the range of 50768-----50734-----50641----50336---50136
and then 49817---49775---49654.65---49586--49212(figure will change every day)
is a very strong bounce back support range, but break & sustained close
below 50768 will threaten the long term uptrend and thereafter break &
close below each point will weaken it further, break and sustained close below
48949 will potentially threaten the long term uptrend and finally if it break
the range of 48636.45---48292.25---48203.45---47756 and sustains on the closing
basis then the correction could be more painful price-wise & time-wise
both.
It is into the correction mode
therefore it is sell on decline market now in general till it gets out of the
corrective mode, but both side trades can be tried depending on the price
action for intraday gains.
NOTE: - IT IS INTO DEEP
CORRECTION MODE, LONG TRADE CAN BE TRIED IF IT HOLDS 51590.70 & 51202.74 LEVELS
ON THE CLOSING BASIS (FIGURE MAY CHANGE). IT IS IN THE LONG TERM UPTREND AS OF NOW,
BUT SHORT TERM BIAS IS BEARISH.
STRENGTH: -
1. It is in
the long-term uptrend.
2. It is well
above its most critical points of 48203.45---48292.25 & 48636.45, please note that it must stay above all these points
to keep up the strong up momentum going in the year 2024.
3. One out
of seven important indicators is positive on the daily chart, indicating
oversold condition.
4. It still
has short higher top & bottom on the line chart.
5. It is
above its pullback threshold point of 51202.74(figure may change).
6 The price action was positive today.
WEAKNESS: -
1. Volatility
and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign
for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically
in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
2. Six out
of seven important indicators on the daily chart are negative and in sell mode,
given negative divergence, but in oversold zone now, so it may give a relief
rally before sliding down further as it did today. Please note that indicators,
on the weekly & monthly chart, also indicating overbought condition, sell
signal and negative divergence too.
3. It is
into correction mode today as it closed below some of the correction threshold
points of 53636.71-----53500.30---53331.55--52487.43---52098.30--- (figures may change). The other important
correction threshold points are at 51549.93----51492.11------50725.73----49201.72---45416.49 (figure may change) and if it sustain below these points correction
will deepen.
4. It is
below some of its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the
important average range for today is between 51446---51516---51760----51963---52074---52515(figure will change every day), sustained close below this range can
accelerate the down move.
TRADING CALL: --
1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 51700---51600 with a stop loss of 51500 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in
a corrective market could be a risky bet but can be tried at critical support
point with strict stop loss for intraday gain.
2. Short
trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 52150---52250 with
a stop loss of 52380 or can sell if it moves below 51680 with a
stop loss of 51800. It could be a risky trade but can be tried
for intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up
with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long
position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the
selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of
trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit
margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any
case.
Disclaimer:-The view
expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any
way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that
make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and
then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated
here are of spot market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Email—suranank@gmail.com
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
