CNX-BANK NIFTY
Open—51491.90--High—51560--Low—51005.85--Close—51172.30 on 11.10.2024.
Support:51138.90/51133.20/50947.70/50369.40/49974.75/49654.65/49530.45/49057.40/48636.45/48313.60/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/47435.75/46983.75/46579/46077.85.
Resistance:51750.10/51996.65/52340.25/52782.75/52794.95/53357.70/53741.40/54467.35/54593/54604/54772/54815/54924/55097/55209/55444/55646/55827/56135/56218.
OVERALL, VIEW: --
It opened on a negative note and thereafter had both side
moves during the day and finally ended the day with a loss of 358.60
points. The chart setup is still
weak it is already into the deep correction mode now. Furthermore after staying
above its pullback threshold point of 51202.74(figure
may change) and its correction threshold point of 51350.12(figure may change) for its recent rise, for just one day
,it slipped below these points again today which shows good weakness in it.
Please note for a decent pullback rally it has to move above 51202.74 & 51350.12 and sustain on
the closing basis, else down move may continue.
It is important to mention here
that overall chart setup is weak, it is still below all its short term moving
averages and below few medium term moving averages on the daily chart and below
few short term moving averages on the weekly chart also and all the important
technical indicators are negative now, therefore all developments together indicates that further fall looks
inevitable in coming days with in between relief rallies. But the only positive
point is that it has made higher top & bottom on the line chart ,
but to give a ray of hope for the good up move
it has to closes above its key points of 51202.74 & 51350.12 (figure may change) and sustain on the
closing basis, and to gain strong foothold it has to move above the range of
51397---51708----51825----51985---52202----52487.43---52533
and sustain on the closing basis, and if
it moves above the range of 53331.55-----53357.70----53500.30(figure may
change) and sustain on the closing basis it may gain good strength for the continuation
of the up move and it will get into the good up momentum track if it moves
above 53613 & 53636.71(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis.
It is important to mention here that it is having a see-saw movement quite often with huge volatility, which is not good sign for a steady market, the overbought condition on the weekly and monthly chart is still present, but on the daily chart it is in the oversold zone now, so it may stage a relief rally but these rallies are weak in nature and may end abruptly there because the overall technical setup is weak and most importantly huge negative divergence is there on the daily& weekly chart and it appeared on the monthly chart too and sell mode also triggered on the daily & weekly chart , so all together these developments are concerning, therefore, all indication together based on few indicators on the daily, weekly & monthly chart is pointing that it could head down in coming days and may seek much lower levels. It is in the long term uptrend as of now but the short & medium term bias is bearish as of now.
Moving down from here it may find broad support at (for other support points see the table on
the upside) 50725.76----50720-----50704------50617----50600----50300-----50085---49774----49702-----49654.65------49546----49201.72-----49166----48908-----48636.45---48292.25---48203.45(figures
may change), it
can bounce back from any of these points, It is already into the deep
correction mode and in short correction mode also for its recent rise, therefore
likely to go down further. Please note
that the range of 50720-----50704-----50600----50300---50085 and then 49774---49702---49654.65---49546--49166(figure
will change every day) is a very strong bounce back support range, but break
& sustained close below 50700 will threaten the long term uptrend and
thereafter break & close below each point will weaken it further, break and
sustained close below 48908 will potentially threaten the long term uptrend and
finally if it break the range of 48636.45---48292.25---48203.45---47756 and sustains on the closing
basis then the correction could be more painful price-wise & time-wise
both.
It is into the correction mode
therefore it is sell on decline market now in general till it gets out of the
corrective mode, but both side trades can be tried depending on the price
action for intraday gains.
NOTE: - IT IS INTO DEEP
CORRECTION MODE, FOR SAFE TRADERS IT IS SUGGESTED TO AVOID LONG TRADE FOR THE
DAY IF IT MAINTAINS BELOW 51202.74 & 51350.12(FIGURE MAY CHANGE) . IT IS IN THE LONG TERM
UPTREND AS OF NOW, BUT SHORT TERM BIAS IS BEARISH.
STRENGTH: -
1. It is in
the long-term uptrend.
2. It is well
above its most critical points of 48203.45---48292.25 & 48636.45, please note that it must stay above all these
points to keep up the strong up momentum going in the year 2024.
3. One out
of seven important indicators is positive on the daily chart, indicating
oversold condition.
4. It still
has short higher top & bottom on the line chart.
WEAKNESS: -
1. Volatility
and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign
for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically
in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
2. Six out
of seven important indicators on the daily chart are negative and in sell mode,
given negative divergence, but in oversold zone now, so it may give a relief
rally before sliding down further as it did today. Please note that indicators,
on the weekly & monthly chart, also indicating overbought condition, sell
signal and negative divergence too.
3. It is
into correction mode today as it closed below some of the correction threshold
points of 53636.71-----53500.30---53331.55--52487.43---52098.30---51549.93----51350.12 (figures may change). The other important
correction threshold points are at 50725.73----49201.72---45416.49 (figure
may change) and if it sustain below
these points correction will deepen.
4. It is
below some of its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the
important average range for today is between 51397---51708---51825----51985---52202---52533(figure will change every day), sustained close below this range can
accelerate the down move.
5. It is
below its pullback threshold point of 51202.74(figure may change) is a
weak sign.
6 The price action was weak today.
TRADING CALL: --
1. Long trade can be tried on decline near 51000 with a stop loss of 50870
for a possible intraday gain, else
avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky
bet but can be tried at critical support point with strict stop loss for
intraday gain.
2. Short
trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 51550---51650 with
a stop loss of 51750 or can sell if it moves below 51000 and
maintain for some time with a stop loss of 51200. It could be a risky trade but can
be tried for intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up
with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position,
but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point
and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be
squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the
trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.
Disclaimer:-The view
expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any
way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that
make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and
then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated
here are of spot market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Email—suranank@gmail.com
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
