CNX-BANK NIFTY
Open—51543.20--High—51784.80--Low—50194--Close—50478.90
on 7.10.2024.
Support:50369.40/49974.75/49654.65/49530.45/49057.40/48636.45/48313.60/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/47435.75/46983.75/46579/46077.85.
Resistance:50947.70/51133.20/51138.90/51750.10/51996.65/52340.25/52782.75/52794.95/53357.70/53741.40/54467.35/54593/54604/54772/54815/54924/55097/55209/55444/55646/55827/56135/56218.
OVERALL, VIEW: --
It opened on a positive note and thereafter it had both side
moves during the day and finally ended the day with a huge loss of 983.15
points. It has been falling from the
last six days in a row, so it may stage a relief rally anytime but the overall
bias is down as of now. The gap it created on 3.10.2024 and on 30.9.2024
is still there and if it makes an effort to fill the respective gaps in 2-3 & 1 trading sessions, which is
technically possible then it could come up to 52817.80 & 53763.20 levels
but if it fails to fill the gap in the stipulated time then chances of filling
the gap will recede for the time being, but it will surely fill the gap one
day, which may please be noted. The chart setup has terribly weakened, it is
into the deep correction mode now, furthermore
it is below all its short term moving averages and below few medium term moving
averages on the daily chart and also below all short term moving averages on
the weekly chart and most importantly
after a long time it has broken one long term moving average also and all the important
technical indicators are negative now, therefore all developments together indicates that further fall looks
inevitable in coming days. Furthermore please note that today it closed below
its very important point of 51189 & 50617 and if it sustains below
these points on the closing basis then it can come down to 50370(it did
break this level intraday but managed to close above it) & 49654.65 levels,
please note that both point is a key bottom and good bounce back point too, but
break and sustained close below the these points may accelerate the fall. It is important to
mention here that, if it closes above 51202.74(figure may change) and sustain then there will be some hope that it can extend
the up move, if it closes above 52487.43
and sustain then it will gain a strong foothold, if it moves above the range of
52374----52401---52555----50563---52723 and then above the range of 53007----53331.55-----53357.70----53500.30(figure
may change) and sustain on the closing basis it may gain good strength for the continuation
of the up move and it will get into the good up momentum track if it moves
above 53636.71(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis.
It is important to mention here
that it is having see-saw movement quite often with huge volatility, which is
not good sign for a steady market, the overbought condition on the weekly and
monthly chart is still present, but on
the daily chart it is in the oversold
zone now, so it may stage a short rally any time, most importantly huge negative divergence is there on the daily& weekly chart and it
appeared on the monthly chart too and sell
mode also triggered on the daily & weekly chart and price action is
weak, so all these developments are concerning, therefore, all indication
together based on few indicators on the daily, weekly & monthly chart is
pointing that it could head down and the process is on and it may slide further
may be with a in between relief rally at times, so keep an eye on for the positive price action for the possible relief rally. It
is in the long term uptrend but it got threatened today as it closed below its
threshold point of 50640 and the short &
medium term bias is hugely bearish as of now.
Moving down from here it may find broad support at (for other support points see the table on
the upside) 50263-----50006---49702----49654.65------49632----49476----49201.72-----49097----48830-----48636.45---48292.25---48203.45(figures
may change), it
can bounce back from any of these points, It is already into the deep
correction mode. Please note that it has threatened the long term uptrend today
as it broke its threshold point of 50640(figure
will change daily) Please note that now the range of 50263----50006 and then 49702---49654.65---49476----(figure
will change every day) is a very strong bounce back support range may
accelerate the fall further, break and sustained close below 48830 will
potentially threaten the long term uptrend and finally if it break the range of
48636.45---48292.25---48203.45---47756
and sustains on the closing basis then the correction could be more painful
price-wise & time-wise both.
It is into the correction mode
therefore it is sell on decline market now in general till it gets out of the
corrective mode, but both side trades can be tried depending on the price
action for intraday gains.
NOTE: - IT IS INTO DEEP
CORRECTION MODE NOW , THEREFORE FOR SAFE TRADERS IT IS SUGGESTED TO AVOID LONG
TRADE TILL IT CLOSES ABOVE 52083.59 (FIGURE MAY CHANGE) AND SUSTAIN, HOWEVER
AGGRESSIVE TRADERS CAN TRY LONG TRADE NEAR CRITICAL SUPPORT POINTS WITH STRICT
STOP LOSS FOR PULLBACK GAINS . IT IS IN THE LONG TERM UPTREND NOW, BUT SHORT
TERM BIAS IS BEARISH.
STRENGTH: -
1. It is in
the long-term uptrend , but it has been threatened today as it closed below
its threshold point of 50640(figure will change daily)
2. It is well
above its most critical points of 48203.45---48292.25 & 48636.45, please note that it must stay above all these
points to keep up the strong up momentum going in the year 2024.
WEAKNESS: -
1. Volatility
and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign
for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically
in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
2. All the
seven important indicators on the daily chart are negative and in sell mode,
given negative divergence, but in oversold zone now, so it may give a relief
rally before sliding down further. Please note that indicators, on the weekly
& monthly chart, also indicating overbought condition, sell signal and negative
divergence too.
3 The price action was weak today.
4. It has
broken its recent bottom on the line & bar chart both.
5. It is
into correction mode today as it closed below some of the correction threshold
points of 53636.71-----53500.30---53331.55--52487.43---52098.30---51549.93----50725.73 (figures may change). The other important
correction threshold points are at 49201.72---45416.49 (figure may change) and if it
sustain below these points correction will deepen.
6. It is
below some of its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the
important average range for today is between 53007---52723---52555----52401---52374---52327(figure will change every day), sustained close below this range can
accelerate the down move.
TRADING CALL: --
|
2. Short
trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 51670---51750 with
a stop loss of 51850 or can sell if it moves below 50350 with a stop loss of 50550 It could be a risky trade but can be tried for
intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up
with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long
position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the
selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of
trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit
margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any
case.
Disclaimer:-The view
expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any
way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that
make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and
then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated
here are of spot market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Email—suranank@gmail.com
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
