CNX-BANK NIFTY
Open—52038.70--High—52203.65--Low—51921.45---Close—52153.15
on 16.9.2024.
Support:51996.65/51957.75/51750.10/51636.75/51138.90/51133.20/50938.70/50438.20/49974.75/49659.05/49654.65/49530.45/49057.40/48636.45/48313.60/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/47435.75/46983.75/46579/46077.85.
Resistance: 52340.25/52794.95/53180.75/53357.70
53477/53503/53575/53633/53773/53913/53970/54070/54139/54257/54365/54604/54815/55097.
OVERALL, VIEW: --
It opened with an up gap and thereafter it had both side
moves during the day and in the process it filled today’s gap and finally ended
the day with a gain of 215.50 points. The technical setup looks good for the continuation of
the up move. It is out of corrective mode, it making higher top & bottom on
the line & bar chart again; it is above all its short, medium and long term
moving averages on the daily chart. Therefore all together it is pointing that
the up move will continue provided it holds the range of 51911.10---51877.15---51774.63---51639.66----51605.94(figures may change) on the closing basis. But break and
close below the above range can trigger fall, break and close below the range
of 51579.50---51539---51520----51440---51403---51351will
weaken it further and break and sustained close below the range of 51319----51266(figure will change daily) may
accelerate the fall.
It is important to mention here
that it is having see-saw movement quite often with huge volatility, which is
not good sign for a steady market, the overbought condition on the weekly and
monthly chart is still present but it neutralized on the daily chart a little while ago but now again in
overbought zone and most importantly
negative divergence appeared on the daily and weekly chart is also very
concerning, therefore, all indication together based on few indicators on the
daily, weekly & monthly chart is pointing that it could head down in coming days, so keep an eye on the indicators change and price action
for any untoward movement. It is in the long term uptrend now.
Moving up from here its broad resistance points (for in
between resistance points see the resistance table above) could be at 52484----52618(some
figure may change), it may correct at any of these points, but close above
each point will strengthen the up move and finally if it moves above 52618
and sustain on the closing basis then it could retest its all-time high of 53357.70
or may go beyond it also and hit a new high.
Similarly moving down from here it may find broad support at (for other support points see the table on
the upside) 51911.10----51877.15----51774.63---51727----51639.66---51605.94----51579.50----51539----51520----51440---51429---51403----51351----51319---51266----51245----51232---51200----51072-----50803----50737----50630-----50529-----50257----50165-----50060----50043----49963----49717.78----49654------49650-----49530----49331----48858.75----48636.45---48292.25---48203.45---47795.89----47533.83(figures
may change), it
can bounce back from any of these points, break and sustained close below 51911.10 & 51877.15 will be a
warning signal, break and close below the
range of 51774.63---51639.66---51605.94----51579.50---51539-----51520----51440---51403----51351 will be an alert sign for the long trade to exit, break and sustained
close below the range of 51319----51266
may trigger fresh fall and break and
close below 50529 may accelerate the fall. Please
note that the range of 50060----50043----49963-----49654---49650—49333(figure
will change every day) is a very strong bounce back support range, but
sustained break and close below the range of 50060----50043----49963 will
threaten the long term uptrend and break and close below the range of 49654---49650—49333
will trigger fresh fall, and finally sustained break and close below the
range of 48636.45---48292.25 &48203.45 will trigger fresh fall again and that
could be sharp in the intensity and the
correction could be more painful time-wise and price-wise both.
Since it is out of correction mode
therefore it is buy on decline market in general, but both side trades can be
tried depending on the price action for intraday gains.
NOTE: - IF IT HOLDS THE LEVEL OF 51877.15 ON THE CLOSING BASIS THEN THE UP
MOVE CAN EXTEND, ELSE IT MAY START TO DRIFT DOWN AGAIN. THE LONG-TERM UPTREND IS
INTACT AS OF NOW.
STRENGTH: -
1. It is in
the long-term uptrend now, but break below 50060 will threaten the long
term uptrend.
2. It is well
above its most critical points of 48203.45---48292.25 & 48636.45, please note that it must stay above all these
points to keep up the strong up momentum going in the year 2024.
3. Six out of seven indicators are positive now.
4. It is well
above its pullback threshold point of 50529(figure can change), if it holds above, it on the closing basis
then it may continue the up-move.
5 The price action was positive today.
6. It is got
out of all corrective mode today and the important correction threshold points
are 51911.10---51774.63---- 51639.66----51605.94---51250.53---50702.16----49877.99---48353.95
& 44568.72 and if it sustain above these points
it may have smooth continuation of the up move.
7. It is above
all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important
average range for today is between 51539---51520---51440----51403----51319----51266(figure will change every day), sustained close above this range can extend
the up move.
8. It is has
made higher top & bottom on the line & bar chart now.
WEAKNESS: -
1. Some
important technical indicators are weak and overbought on the daily/weekly and
monthly chart and pointing that it could head down in the coming days/weeks and
months.
2. Volatility
and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign
for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically
in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
3. Two out
of seven important indicators is negative on the daily chart, indicating
overbought condition and negative divergence.
TRADING CALL: --
1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 51911----51877 with a stop loss of 51600 or can buy if it moves above 52224 and
maintain for some time with a stop loss
of 52050 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid.
2. Short
trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 52400---52450 with
a stop loss of 52600. It could be
a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up
with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position,
but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point
and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be
squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the
trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.
Disclaimer:-The view
expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any
way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that
make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and
then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated
here are of spot market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Email—suranank@gmail.com
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
