CNX-BANK NIFTY
Open—51579.50--High—51579.50--Low—51295.80---Close—51439.55
on 2.9.2024.
Support:51138.90/51133.20/50938.70//50438.20/49974.75/49659.05/49654.65/49530.45/49057.40/48636.45/48313.60/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/47435.75/46983.75/46579/46077.85.
Resistance:51749.45/51957.75/51996.65/52340.25/52794.95/53180.75/53357.70
OVERALL, VIEW: --
It opened on a positive note and the open was the high also for the day and thereafter it moved in a range during the day and finally ended the day with a gain of 88.55 points. The technical setup is still weak, but the good point is that it is well above its pullback threshold point of 50529 & 50289(figure can change), it is above all its short-term moving averages on the daily chart, it is making higher top & bottom on the line chart and higher top on the bar chart as of now, and most of the important technical indicators are positive now on the daily chart, therefore all together it indicates positive outlook as of now for the continuation of the up move. therefore if it could manage to hold the level of 51143 on the closing basis it can extend the up move, but even if it breaks this level but can hold the range of 51125.24---51092----50999----50938(some figure will change every day) on the closing basis it can still bounce back and finally even if it breaks this range but holds 50529(figure can change) chances of up move will be alive, else it will head down and if it moves above 51558 & 51639.66(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis then it can get into up momentum track again and finally for the continuation of the up move in the month of September-2024 it has to move above 51877.15 and sustain on the closing basis.
It is important to mention here that although it is looking
good for the continuation of the up on the daily chart, but it is still into
deep correction mode for its recent rise and also into correction for the
earlier rise; furthermore, it is below few
of its short-term moving averages on the weekly chart and also below few
medium-term moving averages on the daily chart, some important technical
indicators are negative on the weekly & monthly chart, and most importantly
the volatility is still there and the overbought condition on the weekly and
monthly chart is also there but it neutralized on the daily chart little while
ago but now again it is in the overbought territory, therefore, all indication
together based on few indicators on the daily, weekly & monthly chart is
pointing that it could head down again but after this up move is over. So be
watchful.
Moving up from here its broad resistance points(for in
between resistance points see the resistance table above) could be at 51506-----51558----51639.66----51706----51803----51877.15----51943----52340----52484----52618(some
figure may change), it may correct at any of these points, but if it moves
above 51558 & 51639.66 and
sustain on the closing basis then it may get into the up momentum track again
and thereafter closing above each point will strengthen the up move and finally
if it moves above 52618 and sustain on the closing basis then it could
retest its all-time high of 53357.70 or may go beyond it also and hit a
new high.
Similarly moving down from here it may find good support at 51314----51201---51143---51138----51133—--51094-----51070-----51036----50999----50997-----50889----50811----50743-----50681-------50627----50529---50324---50289—--50933.45---49800---49776----49717.78----49705-----49659----49655------49530----49393---48853.755----48636.45---48292.25---48203.45---47795.89----47533.83(figures
may change),
it can bounce back from any of these points, but break and close below 51143 may trigger fall and break and close below 50938 may accelerate the fall and thereafter break below each point
will weaken the setup further. Please
note that the range of 49800----49776----49705----49654---49393 is a very
strong bounce back support range, but sustained break and close below this
range will trigger fresh fall and will also threaten the long term uptrend and
finally sustained break and close below the range of 48636.45---48292.25
&48203.45
will trigger fresh fall again and that could be sharp in the intensity and then
the correction could be more painful time-wise and price-wise both.
Since it is into correction mode
therefore it is still sell on the rise market and sell on the price breakdown
in general but both side trades can be tried depending on the price action for
intraday gains. Please note that since it is into deep correction mode therefore
buy trade could be a risky affair, therefore one should be extra
alert in the long trade.
NOTE: - IF IT HOLDS THE LEVEL OF 51143 ON THE CLOSING BASIS THEN THE UP MOVE
CAN EXTEND, CLOSE BELOW THIS MARK MAY TRIGGER FALL. THE LONG-TERM UPTREND IS
STILL INTACT AS OF NOW. BUT IN SHORT TERM IT IS IN THE CORRECTIVE MODE.
STRENGTH: -
1. It is in
the long-term uptrend now, but break below 49776 will threaten the long
term uptrend.
2. It is well
above its most critical points of 48203.45---48292.25 & 48636.45, please note that it must stay above all these
points to keep up the strong up momentum going in the year 2024.
3. Six out of seven indicators are positive now, pointing that it could extend
the up move and indicate that it could head to 51600
levels or more as of now.
4. It is well
above its pullback threshold point of 50289 & 50529(figure can change), if it holds above, it on the closing basis
then it may continue the up-move.
5. It is
making higher top & bottom on the line after a long time & higher top on
the bar chart.
6. It is
above most of its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the
important average range for today is between 51201---51094----51092----50999----50889---50627(figure will change every day), sustained close above this range can extend
the up move.
7 The price action was positive today.
WEAKNESS: -
1. It is
already into deep correction mode now as it is below almost all its important
correction threshold point of 53036.49----
52834.06----52454.47---52167.20---51853.33---51639.66
& (figure may
change), the
other correction threshold points are 51250.53----51125.24----50772.53---50702.16 &
49877.99, sustained close below the threshold points is a weak sign.
2. Some
important technical indicators are weak and overbought on the daily/weekly and
monthly chart and pointing that it could head down in the coming days/weeks and
months.
3. Volatility
and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign
for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically
in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
4. One out
of seven important indicators is negative on the daily chart, indicating
overbought condition..
TRADING CALL: --
1. Long trade can be tried on
decline near 51143 and
not below it with a stop loss of 51000 or can buy if it moves above 51510 and maintain for some time with a
stop loss of 51280 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please
note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky affair
but can be tried near critical support
points for intraday gains.
2. Short
trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 51650---51750 with
a stop loss of 51890 or can sell if it moves below 51143 and stay for some time with a stop loss of 51320 It could be a risky trade but can be tried for
intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up
with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long
position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the
selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of
trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit
margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.
Disclaimer:-The view
expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any
way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that
make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and
then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated
here are of spot market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Email—suranank@gmail.com
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
