CNX-BANK NIFTY
Open—50133--High—50603.40--Low—49806.05---Close—50516.90
on 16.8.2024.
Support:50438.20/49974.75/49659.05/49654.65/49530.45/49057.40/48636.45/48313.60/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/47435.75/46983.75/46579/46077.85.
Resistance:50830.70/51133.20/51138.90/51749.45/51957.75/51996.65/52340.25/52547.55/52782.75/52794.95/52817.85/53180.75/53357.70/53477/53503/53575/53633/53773/53913/53970/54070/54139/54257/54365/54604/54815/55097.
OVERALL VIEW: --
As envisaged it gave a good upside move today, it opened on a
positive note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally
ended the day with a handsome gain of 789.60
points. The stipulated time for filling the gap of 5.8.2024 has ended on 12.8.2024
but it will surely fill the gap one day
(gap figure is -51087.85), which please keep in mind.
The technical setup is still weak, furthermore the volatility is still
there and the overbought condition on the weekly and monthly chart is also
present but it has neutralized on the daily chart to some extent, therefore it
seems that it may go down further from here may be with in- between short
relief rallies. It is already into deep correction mode for its recent rise and
also into correction for the earlier rise; furthermore, it is still below few
of its short-term moving averages on the daily & weekly chart and also
below few medium-term moving averages on the daily chart. Almost all-important
technical indicators are negative on the daily chart and few on the weekly
& monthly chart are also negative, pointing that the down move is likely to
be resumed after some time. But slightly comfiting thing is that it closed
above its one pullback threshold point of 50289 and if it moves above the
other point of 50529 and sustain on the closing basis then the up move
can extend, else it may resume the down move again.
Moving up from here its broad resistance points(for in
between resistance points see the resistance table above) could be at 50529--- 50681-----50923----50997----51070---51314----51486----51506-----51639.66----51706----51803----51943----52340----52484----52618(some
figure may change), it may correct at any of these points, but if it moves
above 50529 and sustain on the closing basis then the up move can
extend, else down move may continue, if it moves above 50923---51486 & 51639.66
and sustain on the closing basis then it may get into the up momentum track
again and thereafter crossing each point will strengthen the up move and
finally if it moves above 52618 and sustain on the closing basis then it
could retest its all-time high of 53357.70 or may go beyond it.
Similarly moving down from here it may find good support at 50289—49717.78----49654----49530----49468----49374------49112---48853.755----48636.45---48292.25---48203.45---47795.89----47533.83(figures
may change),
it can bounce back from any of these points, if it holds 50289 on the closing
basis then there is a mild chance that the up move can continue, thereafter
break below each point will weaken the setup. Please note that the range of 49654---49468----49374-----49112 is a
very strong bounce back support range, but sustained break and close below 49654
will trigger fresh fall, break and sustained close below 49468 will threaten the long term uptrend and finally
sustained break and close below the range of 48636.45---48292.25 &48203.45 will trigger fresh fall and that
could be sharp in the intensity and then the correction could be more painful
time-wise and price-wise both. Sustained close below 47533.83 can drag it down to 46077 or lower.
Since it is into correction mode
therefore it is still sell on the rise market and sell on the price breakdown
in general but both side trades can be tried depending on the price action for
intraday gains. Please note that since it is into deep correction mode
therefore buy trade could be a risky affair, therefore one should be extra
alert in the long trade.
NOTE: - IF IT HOLDS 50289 ON THE CLOSING BASIS THERE IS A FEEBLE CHANCE THAT
UP MOVE CAN EXTEND BUT IF IT MOVES ABOVE 50529 AND SUSTAIN ON THE CLOSING BASIS
THEN THE CHANCES OF CONTINUATION OF THE UP MOVE WILL ENHANCE CONSIDERABLY. THE LONG-TERM
UPTREND IS STILL INTACT BUT SHORT-TERM TREND IS BEARISH AS OF NOW.
STRENGTH:-
1. It is in
the long-term uptrend now, but break below 49468 will threaten the long
term uptrend.
2. It is well
above its most critical points of 48203.45---48292.25 & 48636.45, please note that it must stay above all these
points to keep up the strong up momentum going in the year 2024.
3. One out of
seven indicators is positive now, pointing that it could cross its recent top
of 50577.95 on the line chart.
4. The price action was positive today.
5. It is above its feeble pullback threshold
point of 50289(figure
can change), if it
holds above, it on the closing basis then it could move up further.
WEAKNESS: -
1. It is already into deep correction mode now as it
is below almost all its important correction threshold point of 53036.49---- 52834.06----52454.47---52167.20---51891.39---51853.33--- 51639.66----51250.53-----50702.16 (figure may change), the other correction threshold point is
49878.
2. Some
important technical indicators are weak and overbought on the daily/weekly and
monthly chart and pointing that it could head down in the coming days/weeks and
months.
3. Volatility
and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign
for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically
in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
4. Five out
of seven important technical indicators are negative on the daily chart now.
5. It is
below more than half of its short term moving averages now on the daily chart
and the important average range for today is between 51486---50923---50780----50560----50398----50260---50188(figure will change every day), sustained close below this range can deepen
the down move.
6. It still
has lower top & bottom on the line & bar chart.
8. It is
below its strong pullback threshold point of 50529(figure may change). Please note
that if it sustains below, then the down move may continue.
TRADING CALL: --
1. Safe traders should avoid long trade till it
closes above 50529, however aggressive traders can try long trade on decline
near or within the range of 50317----50289 with a stop loss of 50000 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade
in a corrective market could be a risky affair but can be tried near critical support points for
intraday gains.
2. Short
trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 51200---51300 with
a stop loss of 51450 or can sell if it moves below 50180 and stay for some time with a stop loss of 50350 It could be a risky trade but can be tried for
intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up
with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long
position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the
selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of
trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit
margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any
case.
Disclaimer:-The view
expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any
way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that
make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and
then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated
here are of spot market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Email—suranank@gmail.com
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
