CNX-NIFTY
Open-24289.40--High-24337.70—Low24184.90---Close-24297.50
on 7.8.2024.
Support:24210.80/24168.85/24141.80/24074.20/23992.65/23985.80/23667.10/23350/23338.70/23206.65/23110.80/22794.70/22768.40/22526.60/22417/2303.80/22297/22224.35/22126.80/21860/21821.05/21801.45/21777.65/21731.40/21727.75/21710.20.
Resistance:24461.05/24854.80/24999.75/25078.30/25152/25337/25494/25551/26118.
OVERALL VIEW:
--
After 3 days of down move it opened
on a positive note and thereafter had both side moves during the day but
finally ended the day with a good gain of 304.95 points, which is a
very normal bounce back after such a big fall, so the weakness still persist,
but the good point is that today it closed above its pullback threshold point
of 24173.27 & 24182.24 and if it sustains above it on the closing
basis then the up move can extend further, else it may resume the down move again.
The gap it created on 2.8.2024 & 5.8.2024 is still there and if it
makes an effort to fill the gap of 2.8.2024 & 5.8.2024 in the
next 1--2 & 2-3 trading sessions which is technically possible then
it can come up to 24686.85 & 24956.40, but if it fails to
fill the gap in the stipulated time then the chances of filling the gap will
recede for the time being but one day if will fill the gap for sure, which
please keep in mind. The technical setup it slightly weak, furthermore the
volatility is still there and the overbought condition on the weekly and
monthly chart is also present but it has neutralized on the daily chart to some
extent, therefore it seems that it can move in a range for some time and then
may go down further may be with in-between short relief rallies. It is already
into deep correction mode for its recent rise, furthermore it is also below all
its short term moving averages and few medium term moving averages on the daily
chart. Furthermore all important technical indicators are negative on the daily
chart and few on the weekly & monthly chart are also negative, pointing that
the down move is likely to continue. Moving down from here it may find good
support at 24182.24---24173.27---23992.70---23985.80----23757----23695----23667.10---23627.90---23450---23350---23338.70---23284----23180---23110.80---22732---22178----22040,
it may bounce back from any of these points, if it holds 24182.24 &
24173.27 on the closing basis chances of up move will be alive, else it may
resume the down move, break and close below 23992.70 & 23985.80 may
trigger fresh fall, break and close below the range of 23695---23667.10
& 23627.90 may accelerate the fall and thereafter break and close below
each point will weaken it further. Please note that sustained close below 24182.24
will make the on-going correction more painful price-wise & time-wise both.
Similarly moving up its broad resistance
points would be at 24346---24486—24596-----24626-----24799----24841.38----24854.80(some
figure may change, for in between resistance points see the table on the up
side), it may correct at any of these points but if it moves above 24596
and sustain on the closing basis then it may get into the up momentum track
again and if it moves above 24854.80 and sustain on the closing basis,
then it could retest its all-time high of 25078.30 or may go beyond it
also.
Since
it is into correction mode therefore it is still sell on the rise market and
sell on the price breakdown in general but both side trades can be tried
depending on the price action for intraday gains. Please note that since it is
into deep correction mode therefore buy trade could be a risky affair.
NOTE: - IF IT HOLDS THE RANGE OF 24182.24---24173.27 ON THE CLOSING BASIS THEN THE UP MOVE CAN EXTEND FURTHER;
ELSE IT MAY RESUME THE DOWN MOVE AGAIN. IT IS IN THE LONG TERM UPTREND, BUT IT IS IN CORRECTIVE MODE
NOW.
STRENGTH:-
1. It is in
the long term uptrend now.
2. It is
well above its critical points of 21821.05---21801.45---21777.65---21776.87---21731.40---21727.75
& 21710.20, which is must to keep the up momentum going in the year 2024.
Sustained break below this range may witness accelerated fall.
WEAKNESS:-.
1. All the seven important
technical indicators have turned negative on the daily chart
2. Some important technical
indicators are weak and overbought on the daily/weekly and monthly chart and
pointing that it could head down in the coming days/weeks and months.
3. Volatility and wild swing can
be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market
condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming
days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
4. It is into deep correction mode
now as it is below almost all its correction threshold point of 24873.57----24841.33----24670.42 & 24636.50
& (figures may change). The other correction threshold point is 24182.24(figure may change) and sustained
close below 24182.24 will make the
correction deeper and painful.
5. It is below all its short term
moving averages on the daily chart and the important range for the day is
between 24596----24551----24495----24466---24439----24389(figure will change every day), sustained close below this range can
deepen the down move.
6. It has broken its recent
bottom on the line & bar chart.
7. The price action was mixed
today.
TRADING CALL: --
1. Long trade can be tried on
decline near or within the range of 24182.24
& 24173.27 with a stop loss of 24110
or if it moves above 24347 and
maintain for some time with a stop loss of 24280 for a possible intraday gains,
else avoid. Please note that long trade
in a corrective market could be a risky affair but can be tried near critical
support points for intraday gains.
2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 24450--24475
with a stop loss of 24525 or can sell if it moves below 24140
with a stop loss of 24210 It could be a risky trade but can be tried for
intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If
it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating
long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near
the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type
of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable
profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested
in any case.
Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at
all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the
above view.
Kindly note that make your cost your
stop loss in favorable trade
and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated here are of spot
market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
Email--- suranank@gmail.com
