2 2 2
CNX-BANK NIFTY
Open—51172.25--High—51608.70--Low—51087.85---Close—51350.15
on 2.8.2024.
Support:51138.90/51133.20/50438.30/49974.75/49530.45/49057.40/48636.45/48313.60/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/47435.75/46983.75/46579/46077.85.
Resistance:51749.45/51957/51996.65/52340.25/52547.55/52782.75/52794.95/52817.85/53180.75/53357.70/53477/53503/53575/53633/53773/53913/53970/54070/54139/54257/54365/54604/54815/55097.
OVERALL VIEW: --
It opened on a negative note and thereafter had both side
moves during the day and finally ended the day with a loss of 213.85
points. It is still into deep correction mode for its recent rise as it is well
below all its correction threshold
points of 53036.49----52834.06---52454.47---52167.20----51891.39---51853.33
& 51639.66 .Furthermore it is also below all its short term
moving averages and few medium term moving averages on the daily chart and also
below some key points which are placed at 52029---51996.65----51957---51713---51694---51580---51494---51432(
some figures will change daily) for the day and finally almost all the important technical indicators are negative
on the daily chart & few indicators are
also weak on the weekly & monthly chart, and volatility and wild swings is also a concern, therefore
all together it is still showing gross weakness and overbought condition and it
is pointing that it may be heading for a big fall in coming days. But the good
thing is that it is still above its pullback threshold point of 50994.45(short) & 51127.28(deep)(figure may change) and
two other important points of 51138.90----51133.20 & 50818.69 and if it
sustains above these points and price action improves then the chances of
continuation of the up move will be alive, else it may head down further. The
price action was very weak today. Please note that it will gain strong foothold
for the continuation of the up move if it moves above 51639.66 and sustains on the
closing basis, but it will gain good
strength only if it moves above 52040 (figure will change daily) and sustain on
the closing basis. Please note that chances
of the continuation of the up move will be alive till it holds 51127.28---50994.45
& 50818.69 on the closing basis, else it may start to drift down, which
please note. It is important to mention here that
moving down the next key support point will be at 49242(figure will change daily, for
in between support points please look at the above mentioned support points) break below
it will threaten the long term uptrend and finally sustained break and close below
the range of 48636.45---48292.25 &48203.45 will trigger fresh fall and it could
be sharp in the intensity and then the correction could be painful time-wise
and price-wise both. Since it is into
correction mode therefore it is still sell on the rise market in general but
both side trade can be tried depending on the price action for intraday gains.
NOTE: - TO KEEP THE UP MOMENTUM ALIVE IN THE MONTH OF AUGUST-2024 IT HAS TO MOVE
AND SUSTAIN ABOVE 51534. & 51672.60 ON THE CLOSING BASIS AND TO KEEP THE
HOPE ALIVE FOR THE CONTINUATION OF THE UP IT HAS TO HOLD ABOVE
51138.90---51133.20---51127.28---50994.45 & 50818.69 ON THE CLOSING BASIS,
ELSE IT MAY HEAD DOWN FURTHER, IF IT FAILS TO GIVE SHARP AND SUSTAINABLE BOUNCE
BACK AND MOVES ABOVE FEW OF ITS CRITICAL POINTS IN A SHORTEST POSSIBLE TIME
THEN IT MAY BEGIN TO SLIDE DOWN FURTHER. THE LONG TERM UPTREND IS STILL INTACT
BUT SHORT TERM TREND IS BEARISH AS OF NOW.
STRENGTH:-
1. It is in
the long term uptrend, but break below 49242 will threaten the long term
uptrend.
2. It is well
above its most critical points of 48203.45---48292.25 & 48636.45, please note that it must stay above all these
points to keep up the strong up momentum going in the year 2024.
3. It is
above its pullback threshold point of 50994.45 & 51127.28(figure
may change). Please note that if it sustains above it on the closing basis
then it could possibly move ahead further, else down move may continue.
4. Three out
of seven indicators are positive on the daily chart.
WEAKNESS:-
1. It is already into deep correction mode now as it is
below all its important correction threshold point of 53036.49---- 52834.06----52454.47---52167.20---51891.39---51853.33 & 51639.66(figure may change), which is a
very weak sign.
2. Some important
technical indicators are weak and overbought on the daily/weekly and monthly chart
and pointing that it could head down in the coming days/weeks and months.
3. Volatility
and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for
a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically
in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
4. Five out
of seven important technical indicators are negative on the daily chart now.
5. It is below
all its short term moving averages now
on the daily chart and the important average range for today is between 52040---51953----51713----51694----51580---51494---51432(figure will change every day), sustained break below this range can trigger
big down move.
6. It still has
lower top & bottom on the line & bar chart.
7. The price
action was very weak today.
TRADING CALL: --
1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or
within the range of 51145----51000
with a stop loss of 50790 or can buy if it moves above 51570 and
maintain for some time with a stop loss of 51330 for possible pullback
gains, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could
be a risky affair but can
be tried near critical support points for intraday gains.
2. Short
trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 51650---51750 with
a stop loss of 51900 or can sell if it moves below 50860 with a
stop loss of 51145. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for
intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up
with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long
position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the
selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of
trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit
margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any
case.
Disclaimer:-The view
expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any
way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that
make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and
then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated
here are of spot market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Email—suranank@gmail.com
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
