CNX-NIFTY
Open-22048.30--High—22353.30—Low—22047.75--Close-22338.75
on 1.3.2024.
Support: 22297.50/22252.50/22249.40/22126.80/ 22124.15/ 22079.67/ 21926.76/21834.35/21813.05/21801.45/ 21763.95/21750.25/21731.40/21727.75/ 21593/21500.35/
21448.65/21285.55/ 21137.20/20976.80/20769.50/20291.55/20222.45/19991.85/19875.25/19849.75/19635.30/19333.60/19329.10/19223.65/18973.30/18887.60/18837.85.
Resistance: 22371/22453/22514/22590/22618/22782/22864/23082/23117/23124/23587.
(Bold
and underlined figures are most important)
It opened on a positive
note and then steadily moved up during the day and hit a new all-time high of 22353.30
and finally ended the day with a good gain of 355.95 points. Unexpectedly it exhibited extra ordinary strength today but it
has to be seen whether it will last or not in next few days, so watch out. It
is needless to mention here that it has been exhibiting volatility for a long
time now and having a see-saw movement quite often, which is a concern and it is not a good sign for a
steady market and may eventually drag it down sharply in coming days/weeks
& months. It is important to mention here that the gap filling threat for
earlier gap on the daily & weekly chart has faded out but please note that
eventually it will fill the gap someday(weekly gap of 20291.55 is yet to be
filled), which please note.
Although today it decisively bounced back above the
Inverse Head & shoulder pattern (bullish
pattern) neckline which is placed at 22126.80, please note that it has been
giving whip saw movement around this point in the last few days, therefore it
has to be seen whether it sustains above it or not in the next 2-3 days. Please
note that if it sustains above it then the maximum upside target for the
pattern could be 23117 with in between resistance points at 22376---22457---22623---22787---22870.
Please note that this time if it fails to hold the range of
22126.80---22066.30----21984(figures may change) then sharp fall is very much
likely, which may please be noted.
Moving up from here the
important resistance points could be at 22376---22457---22623---22787---22870---23117. Please note that it may correct at any of
these points and may resume the up move again or may exhaust the up move for a
while and move sideways. But if it moves above 23117 and sustain then up
move can extend further.
Similarly moving down from here the important
support points could be at 22237.03---22159.05----22126.80---22107---22066-----22049---21984---21959---21860---21801.45---21748---21731.40----21727.75----21711----21692----21683---21593---21500----21448.65---21380----21285.55----21137.20(figures
may change), it may bounce back from any
of these points and may resume the up move again, but sustained break below the
range of 22237.03---22159.05 on the closing basis will push it into short & medium correction mode for
its very recent rise, sustained break below the range of 22126.80---21984
may trigger fresh fall, break below the range of 21801.45—21727.75 may
jeopardize the up momentum and then break below each point will weaken it
further and finally sustained break below 21137.20 may accelerate the
fall.
It is important to mention here that two out
of five important technical indicators have turned positive but three
indicators are still negative on the daily chart giving mixed indication that
it may swing both ways in coming days. One most important indicator on the
weekly & monthly chart is also negative and pointing that it could head
down in coming weeks/months. But the other important parameter such as moving
average placements is good and price action has also been good more or less
consistently. Therefore if these two parameters remains good and it manage to
hold key points as mentioned above up move is likely to continue with in
between short correction. Last but not the least in worst case scenario as long
as it holds 21671(figure may change) on the closing basis chances
of up move will be alive. Please note that yesterday’s move has made it
buy on dip market for now.
TRADING TIPS:--
1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within
the range of 22237----22160 for some time with a stop loss of 22060
or if it moves above 22355 and maintain for some time with a stop loss
of 22270.
2. It is in the long term uptrend therefore short
trade in general could be a highly risky affair; but even then short trade can
be attempted on reasonable rise or on price breakdown for intraday corrective
gains but with extreme caution and alert. Short trade can be tried on the rise
near or within the range of 22550--- 22600 with a stop loss of 22665.
It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for
it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be
attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa .
Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off
during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day
squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.
Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author
and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you
enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the
price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and
resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO
NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated here are of spot market.
Thanks
Narendra
Kumar Surana
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
Email--- suranank@gmail.com
