CNX-NIFTY
Open-21578.15--High—21870.85—Low—21530.20--Close-21840.05
on 14.2.2024.
Support: 21834.35/21813.05/21801.45/
21763.95/21750.25/21731.40/21727.75/ 21593/21500.35/ 21448.65/21285.55/ 21137.20/20976.80/20769.50/20291.55/20222.45/19991.85/19875.25/19849.75/19635.30/19333.60/19329.10/19223.65/18973.30/18887.60/18837.85.
Resistance: 21926.76/22053.30/22124.15/22126.80/22220/22393/22459/22514/22590/22618/22782/22864/23082/23111/23124/23587.
(Bold
and underlined figures are most important)
It opened on hugely
negative note and had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day with
a gain of 96.80 points. It has been exhibiting volatility for
a long time in fact it is giving see-saw movement quite often and today’s move
was a classic example which is not a good sign for a steady and smooth market
and can eventually drag it down lower. It is important to mention here that the
gap filling threat for earlier gap on the daily & weekly chart has faded
out but please note that eventually it will fill the gap someday(weekly gap
of 20291.55 is yet to be filled), which please note.
Kindly note that to keep
the up momentum going on in the year 2024 it has to sustain above its most critical & important points of 21727.75---21731.40 &21801.45 on the closing basis. Today
it bounced back to close above all the critical points which is positive sign
and if it sustains above these points it may pick up strong up momentum, but
break below these points will trigger fall again and break below the range of 21721---21657(figure
will change every day) may accelerate the fall, which may please be noted. It
is important to mention here that its short & long pullback threshold
points are at 21671 & 21370.12(figure
may change) and it above both the points and as long as it holds these points
on the closing basis chances of up move will be alive, else it may drift down.
It is most important to mention here that it is in
the process of making an inverse Head & Shoulder pattern on the daily chart
and its neckline is placed at 22126.80 and if it gives an upside breakout from
this point then the maximum upside target could be 23120, similarly sustained
break below 21448.65 may negate this pattern which please note.
The chart setup has improved a bit as it crossed
it recent top on the line chart, but it is still into short term corrective
mode for its very recent rise as it is
way below its threshold point of 21893.25(figure may change) moving down
from here its important support points could be at 21834.35---21801.45---21766.23---21748.77----21731.40---- 21727.75------21681.04---21632----21514---21448.65---21370.12—21335.15---21285.55----21137.20(figures
may change) it may bounce back from any of these points
and may resume the up move again but break below the range of 21801.45---21727.75
may trigger fresh fall, which please note. Similarly moving up from here
its upside resistance or target point could be at 21893.25---21926.76----21989----22010.11---22053.30---22124.15----22126.80---22220(figure
may change) if it moves above 21926.76 and
sustain on the closing basis then it could retest its all-time high of 22126.80 or may go
beyond it also.
It is important to mention here that four out
of five important technical indicators are negative on the daily chart and indicates
that it may go down further in the coming days. Furthermore one most important
indicator on the weekly & monthly chart is negative, but moving average positioning
is well placed and price action has also improved today. It is giving mixed
signals now but if it remains above its key points as mentioned above then the
up move will continue and last but not least as long as it holds 21370.12(figure
may change) on the closing basis chances of up move will always be
alive. I once again reiterate that the volatility will eventually take its
toll sooner or later and it may moderately or sharply head down in coming days.
So be alert and cautious in the long trade at this point of time.
IMPORTANT NOTE: -- IT IS STILL
INTO CORRECTION MODE AND TO GET BACK ON THE SMOOTH UP TRACK IT HAS TO MOVE
ABOVE 21727.75 ---21731.40---21801.45---21893.25--21926.76AND SUSTAIN ON THE
CLOSING BASIS, ELSE DOWN MOVE WILL CONTINUE. BUT THE HOPE OF CONTINUATION OF
THE UP MOVE WILL BE ALIVE TILL IT HOLDS 21370.12 ON THE CLOSING BASIS.
TRADING TIPS:--
1. Long trade can be tried if it holds the range of 21801---21755
with a stop loss of 21660 or if it moves above 21894 and
maintain for some time with a stop loss of 21780. Please note that long trade in corrective mode
could be a risky affair but can be tried at extreme critical support points
with strict stop loss for pullback gains.
2. It is in the long term uptrend therefore short
trade in general could be a highly risky affair, but it is into correction and
pullback mode is also on, even then short trade can be attempted on reasonable
rise or on price breakdown for intraday corrective gains but with extreme
caution and alert. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the
range of 22060--- 22120 with a stop loss of 22170. It could be a risky trade but worth trying for
intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for
it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be
attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa .
Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off
during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day
squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.
Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author
and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you
enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the
price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and
resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO
NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated here are of spot market.
Thanks
Narendra
Kumar Surana
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
Email--- suranank@gmail.com
