A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—15.2.2024

 

 

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 CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open—45014.65--High—46170.45--Low—44860.75---Close—45908.30 on 14.2.2024.

Support:45655.50/ 45430.20/45118.05/45096.85/44949.90/44710.55//44547.80/44429/44279.40/44182.50/43830.75/43796.75/43600.35/43345.95/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40.

Resistance: 46181.20/46310.10/46369.50/46507.55/46892.35/46919.70/47010.80/47481.35/47588/48203.45/48219.95/48292.25/48305.40/48381.95 48636.45/48722/48925/49024/49567.60/49696/49857/50324/50633.60/50850.

(Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened on a flat to positive note and had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day with a gain of 405.90 points. Please note that it has been exhibiting volatility for a long time in fact it is having see-saw movement quite often and today’s move was a latest example, which is not a good sign for a steady and smooth market and may eventually drag it down lower.

It is important to mention here that its critical & important points are 48203.45---48292.25 & 48636.45and to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2024 it has to sustain above these points on the closing basis else it may head down.  It is way below all the three critical points, it is well below all  the important correction threshold points for its recent months rise and most critical points  48231.30---48133.94---47999.87---47447.93---47387.89---47360.75---47095.12----46311----46270.95(figures may change), which is a hugely negative sign and indicates further fall may be  ahead. Please note that break below 44746.91(figure may change) will push it into deep medium term correction mode for its earlier rise. It is already into the long term correction mode now for its recent months rise, but the good thing is that it bounced back above its long term moving average upper band of the range, which is placed at 45648(figure will change every day) for the day and its lower band of the range is placed at 44430(figure will change every day) for the day, please note that break below this range will potentially threaten the long term uptrend which please note. It is important to mention here that its short and long pullback threshold points are at 45166.86 & 45421.96(figure may change) and it is well above both the points, which is a positive sign. Please note that to keep the hope of meaningful up move or continuation of major up move alive it has to sustain above these points plus 45648(figure will change every day)on the closing basis, else it will drift down again.  

It is important to mention here that three out of five important technical indicators are positive now and two indicators are negative on the daily chart, giving mixed signals some indicators indicates that it may go down further and some indicator pointing that it may have short lived up move also in the coming days. Furthermore three most important indicators on the weekly & one on the monthly chart are also negative and it is into long term corrective mode. The chart setup is still weak, it is below few short term moving averages on the weekly chart, below few medium term moving averages on the daily chart. Please note that all together situation is not very encouraging and pointing that it may head down in coming days. However if it remains above 45648---45421.96 & 45166.86 (figure may change)  on the closing basis chances of up move will be alive. 

Moving down from here its important support points could be at 45763----45661----45497---45421.96---45370----45166.86----45010----44921.67---44746.91---44548----44429---44279.40----44182.50---43830.25---43796.75---43600.35(figures may change), please note that it can bounce back from any of these points and may resume the up move again, else may keep moving down. 

Similarly moving up it may face strong resistance at 45951----46036---46360---46441----46441----46533---46892----47029---47644----47795----48203.45---48219.95---48231.30----48252.80---48292.25---48305.40---48381.95----48636.45(figure may change) and it can correct at any of these points and then may resume the up move again or it may exhaust the up move at any of these points also and may head down. 

IMPORTANT NOTE: -- IT IS STILL INTO DEEP CORRECTIVE MODE BUT CHANCES OF UP MOVE WILL BE ALIVE IF IT HOLDS 45648---45421.96 & 45166.86(FIGURE MAY CHANGE) ON THE CLOSING. IT IS STILL A SELL ON THE RISE MARKET BUT LONG TRADE CAN BE TRIED AT CRITICAL SUPPORT POINTS WITH STRICT STOP LOSSES. 

TRADING TIPS:--

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 45650----45421.96 with a stop loss of 45300 or can be tried if it moves above 46080 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 45850.  Please note that long trade in corrective mode could be a risky affair but can be tried at extreme critical support points with strict stop loss for pullback gains.

2. It is into long term uptrend but in the deep long corrective mode and long term uptrend is also threatened; therefore short trade can be attempted on reasonable rise or on price breakdown for intraday corrective gains but with extreme caution and alert. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 46600---46700 with a stop loss of 46850. It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday corrective gains

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favourable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

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A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY—14.2.2024

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open-21664.30--High—21766.80—Low—21543.35--Close-21743.25 on 13.2.2024.

Support: 21731.40/21727.75/ 21593/21500.35/ 21448.65/21285.55/ 21137.20/20976.80/20769.50/20291.55/20222.45/19991.85/19875.25/19849.75/19635.30/19333.60/19329.10/19223.65/18973.30/18887.60/18837.85.

Resistance:  21750.25/21763.95/21801.45/ 21813.05/21834.35/21926.76/22053.30/22124.15/22126.80/22220/22393/22459/22514/22590/22618/22782/22864/23082/23111/23124/23587.

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

it opened on a positive note and had both side moves during the day and finally ended the with a gain of 127.20 points. It has been exhibiting volatility for a long time in fact it is having a see-saw movement quite often which is not a good sign for a steady and smooth movement and can eventually drag it down lower. It is important to mention here that the gap filling threat for earlier gap on the daily & weekly chart has faded out but please note that eventually it will fill the gap someday(weekly gap of 20291.55 is yet to be filled), which please note.

Kindly note that to keep the up momentum going on in the year 2024 it has to sustain above its  most critical & important points of 21727.75---21731.40 &21801.45 on the closing basis. It bounced back to close above two critical points today but it has to move above all the critical points and sustain on the closing basis to pick good up momentum, similarly break below these points will trigger fall again and break below the range of 21705---21666(figure will change every day) may accelerate fall, which may please be noted. It is important to mention here that its short & long pullback threshold points are at 21681.04 & 21370.12(figure may change) and it above both the points and as long as it holds these points on the closing basis chances of up move will be alive, else it may move down.

The chart setup is weak  as it made lower top & bottom on the bar & line chart, it is into short term corrective mode  for its very recent rise as it is way below its threshold point of 21893.25(figure may change) moving down from here its important support points could be at 21731.40---- 21727.75------21681.04---21632----21514---21448.65---21370.12—21335.15---21285.55----21137.20(figures may change) it may bounce back from any of these points and may resume the up move again but break below 21137.20 may trigger fresh fall, which please note. Similarly moving up from here its upside resistance or target point could be at   21748.77----21766.23---21801.45---21834.35---21893.25---21926.76----21989----22010.11---22053.30---22124.15----22126.80---22220(figure may change) sustained close above 21801.45---21893.25 may put it back on the steady up track again. 

It is important to mention here that four out of five important technical indicators are negative on the daily chart and indicates that it may go down further in the coming days. Furthermore one most important indicator on the weekly & monthly chart is negative, it fell below few of its short term moving average on the daily chart and the price action is also weak, all together situation looks concerning and further fall is very much likely in the coming days. However, as long as it holds 21370.12(figure may change) chances of up move will always be alive. I once again reiterate that the volatility will eventually take its toll sooner or later and it may moderately or sharply head down in coming days. So be alert and cautious in the long trade at this point of time. 

IMPORTANT NOTE: -- IT IS INTO CORRECTION MODE AND TO GET BACK ON THE SMOOTH UP TRACK IT HAS TO MOVE ABOVE 21727.75 ---21731.40---21801.45---21893.25--21926.76AND SUSTAIN ON THE CLOSING BASIS, ELSE DOWN MOVE WILL CONTINUE. BUT THE HOPE OF CONTINUATION OF THE UP MOVE WILL BE ALIVE TILL IT HOLDS 21370.12 ON THE CLOSING BASIS.

TRADING TIPS:--

1. Long trade can be tried if it holds the range of 21730---21705 with a stop loss of 21640 or if it moves above 21783 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 21700.  Please note that long trade in corrective mode could be a risky affair but can be tried at extreme critical support points with strict stop loss for pullback gains.

2. It is in the long term uptrend therefore short trade in general could be a highly risky affair, but it is into correction and pullback mode is also on, even then short trade can be attempted on reasonable rise or on price breakdown for intraday corrective gains but with extreme caution and alert. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 21900--- 21930 with a stop loss of 21980 or sell below 21640 with a stop loss of 21750   It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com