CNX-BANK NIFTY
Open—45944.60--High—46062.85--Low—45620.50---Close—45818.50
on 7.2.2024.
Support: 45655.50/45430.20/45071.20/44710.55/44949.90/44547.80/44429/44279.40/44151.80/43830.75/43796.75/43600.35/43345.95/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40.
Resistance: 46310.10/46369.50/46580.30/46892.35/46919.70/47010.80/47481.35/47588/48166.15/48203.45/48219.95/48292.25/48305.40/48381.95 48636.45/48722/48925/49024/49567.60/49696/49857/50324/50633.60/50850.
(Bold and underlined
figures are most important)
It opened with a small up gap and went up
little further and then started slipping down and in the process filled the gap
and late in the afternoon staged recovery and finally ended the day with a gain
of 127.70 points. Please note that it is exhibiting
huge volatility in fact it is having a see-saw movement quite often which is
not a good sign for a steady and smooth movement and may eventually drag it
down lower.
It is important to mention here that its critical & important points are 48203.45---48292.25
& 48636.45 and to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2024 it has to
sustain above these points on the closing basis else it may head down. It is way below
all the three critical points, it is well below all the important correction threshold points for
its recent months rise and most critical points
48231.30---48133.94---47999.87---47447.93---47387.89---47360.75---47095.12----46311----46270.95(figures
may change), which is a hugely negative sign and indicates further fall may
be ahead. Please note that break below 44746.91(figure
may change) will push it into deep medium term correction mode for its
earlier rise. It is already in the long term correction mode now for its recent
months rise, furthermore it is time and again testing its long term moving average
upper band ,which is placed at 45609(figure will change every day) for
the day, in fact it tested this level intraday today but managed to close above
it, but this behavior is concerning and sustained break below it could
threaten the long term uptrend and sustained break below the lower band of the long term
moving average which is placed at 44415(figure will change every day)
for the day may jeopardize the uptrend, which please keep in mind. It is
important to mention here that its short and long pullback threshold points are
at 44937 & 45421.96(figure may change) and it is well above both the
pullback threshold points, therefore as long as it hold these points on the
closing basis the hope of continuation of the up move will be alive, else it
may head down.
It is important to mention here that four out
of five important technical indicators are positive now on the daily chart and indicates
that it may continue the up move in the coming days. But three most important indicators
on the weekly & one on the monthly chart are negative and it is into long
term corrective mode. Furthermore the chart setup is still weak, it is still
below few of its short term moving averages on the daily and weekly chart,
below some medium term moving averages also and most importantly it is testing its
long term moving average every now and then, and therefore all together it
still indicates down move may happen. But as long as it holds its long term
moving average upper band of 45609(figure will change every day) and
pullback threshold point of 45421.96(figure may change) the hope of
continuation of the up move will be alive. In view of the above observation long
trade can be tried on decline till it holds these points on the closing basis.
Moving down from here its important support
points could be at 45759----45661----45505---45421.96----45370---45343.83---45251---45010.35---44949.50---44921----44746.91---44607----44506---44404----44312---44279.40---43830.25---43796.75---43600.35(figures
may change), please note that it can bounce back from any of these points
and may resume the up move again, else may keep moving down.
Similarly moving up it may face strong
resistance at 45910-----45951.35---46072----46150----46367---46533----46825---47029----47391---47530----47644----47795---48203.45---48219.95---48231.30----48252.80---48292.25---48305.40---48381.95----48636.45(figure may change) and it can correct at any of these points and
then may resume the up move again or it may exhaust the up move at any of these
points also and may head down.
IMPORTANT NOTE: -- PLEASE
NOTE THAT AS LONG AS IT HOLDS 45609(FIGURE WILL CHANGE EVERY DAY) &45421.96
ON THE CLOSING BASIS CHANCES OF UP MOVE WILL BE ALIVE BUT BREAK BELOW THESE
POINTS WILL TRIGGER FRESH FALL.
TRADING TIPS:--
1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or
within the range of 45600---45527 with a stop loss of 45400 or
long trade can be tried if it moves above 45927 and maintain for some
time with a stop loss of 45750. Please
note that long trade in corrective mode could be a risky affair but can be
tried at extreme critical support points with strict stop loss for pullback
gains.
2. It is into
long term uptrend but in the deep long
corrective mode but pullback up move is also on, but even then short trade can
be attempted on reasonable rise or on price breakdown for intraday corrective
gains but with extreme caution and alert. Short trade can be tried on the rise
near or within the range of 46200---46260 with a stop loss of 46360.
It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday corrective gains
NOTE: - If it opens up
with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long
position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the
selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of
trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit
margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any
case.
Disclaimer:-The view
expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any
way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that
make your cost your stop loss in favourable trade
and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated
here are of spot market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Email—suranank@gmail.com
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
.
.
