Open—38071.90---High—38233.95--Low—37748.45---Close—37976.25 on 18.11.2021.
Support:37708.75/37315.20/36876.35/36525.95/36151.95/35359.25/34817.50.
Resistance: -38112.75/38377.25/38873.80/39292.80/40011.15/40160.20/41367.25/41829.60/41965/42036/42222.
(Bold and underlined
figures are most important)
It opened on a flat to positive note but
could not sustain and started moving down and finally closed with a meager loss
of 65.30
points. It is into medium term correction mode, furthermore it is decisively and
way below its first lair of critical resistance range of 41000—40709---40401(figure will change
every day) and also below Its second
lair of critical resistance and support range is 38467---38256---38044(figure will change
every day), which is very concerning Since it has broken the second lair of
support therefore the on-going uptrend is in jeopardy and if it fails to bounce back above
it i.e. 38467 in next 1-2 days then it may witness an accelerated
fall. Moving down further its other important support points are at 36876.35---36771---36525.95(figure
may change), please note that sustained break below 36771 will put the long term
uptrend in potential danger.
It is important to mention here that it could come out of corrective mode if it closes above 40661 & 41231 and sustain, it is well below its short and some medium term moving averages and also below its short and long pullback threshold point of 38317.65 & 38711.60 (figure may change) which is a very weak sign and if it does not move above it and the moving averages in a shortest possible time and sustain on the closing basis then it could continue with the down move with short up rally in between. But if it moves above 38317.65 and sustain on the closing basis then chances are that it could still give a pullback rally may be of a weak intensity. However moving up from here its critical resistance points could be at 38317.65---38711.60---39169---39727---40011.15---40128---40160---40247---40537---41027---41149---41367.25---41830(figures may change) and it could react from any of these points and then may move up again or may break down also which may please be noted. Kindly note that now it is a sell on the rise markets till visible sign of correction completion emerges. The short term bias is down.
It is
important to mention here that pullback rallies are treacherous in nature and
can end abruptly; therefore one should be extremely alert and cautious in the
long trade initiated for pullback gains.
It is important to mention here that its
long term technical setup is still o.k. for the
uptrend to continue as long as it holds 36771(figure
will change every day). It is into medium term correction mode now and
below its pullback threshold point of 38317.65 & 38711.60 (figures may
change) it is also way below its all critical resistance
points as mentioned above, which indicates tremendous weakness, therefore
further fall cannot be ruled out if it remains below it. Furthermore please
note that few important technical indicators are also weak on the daily and
weekly chart and indicating that it could seek much lower levels, therefore it
seems that it may have an accelerated fall in coming days/weeks if the technical
indicators or price pattern does not improve. Since it is in corrective mode
therefore sell on the rise strategy should be adopted till visible sign
of correction completion emerges. It is therefore suggested to avoid long trade
in general as of now.
In view of the above, it is into medium
term correction mode and also below its pullback threshold point of 38317.65 & 38711.60 (figure may change)
therefore for safe traders long trade should be avoided till it gives
visible sign of correction completion or if it closes above at least the
pullback threshold point of 38317.65.
However, aggressive traders can try long trade on decline near 37750 but not below it. Please note
that long trade below the range of 38467---38256---38044(figure will change every day) could
be a highly risky proposition. I strongly caution here that long trade in a
corrective mode could be a highly risky affair; therefore one should be
extremely cautious in the long trade at this point of time. It is in the long term uptrend but now in
correction mode, therefore short trade can be attempted on
the rise and at appropriate point or can be tried on the price breakdown for
taking advantage of the intraday gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for
it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be
attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa .
Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off
during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day
squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.
TRADING STRATEGY (Suggested)
1. Buy on decline near 37750 but not below it with a stop loss
of 37700. It is for the aggressive traders and could be a highly risky trade.
Or
2. Sell on the rise near or
within the range of 38425---38475 with a stop loss of 38550. It could be a
highly risky trade but worth trying for intraday gains.
Or
Sell if it does not move
above 38260 in first one and half hour of trade with a stop loss of 38350. It could
be a highly risky trade but worth trying for intraday gains.
Or
Sell if it moves below 37748
with a stop loss of 37990. It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday
gains.
Disclaimer:-The view
expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any
way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss
in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down
to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as
entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated
here are of spot market.
Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and
exit trade.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
