Open—14716.45--High—14879.80—Low—14649.85---Close-14819.05
on 7.4.2021.
Support:14753.55/14653.35/14635.05/14540/14467.75/14350.10/14264.40/14222.80/14024.85/13996.11/13981.75/13777.50/13596.75/13399.30/13145.85/13131.45.
Resistance:14883.20/14888.80/14977.20/15051.60/15176.50/15257.10/15273.15/15336.30/15431.75/15471/15615/15694/15800/16028/16323/16991.50/17470.
(Bold and underlined
figures are most important)
It continued the up move today also and closed with a decent
gain of 125.10 points. But it is still into correction mode and
needs to cross the key points mentioned below and sustain on the closing basis
to get into the up grove again. Its most critical points for the year 2021 are 14024.85---13996.11 & 13981.75 and it is way above these points
now and as long as it holds these points on the closing basis uptrend will
remain intact. Its other key points are at 15131.35---14998.70---14888.80---14336.34---13562.48---12430.50(except
for 12430.50 other figures can change). It is below its first 3 key points of15131.35---14998.70 &14888.80 for the last few days, therefore
it is already into deep short term correction mode and not moving
above its key points, which is slightly concerning, sustained break below 14336.34 can push it into medium term
correction mode, which could last even longer and most importantly sustained
break below 13562.48 on the closing
basis can push it into long term correction mode and will potentially threaten
the uptrend and finally sustained break below 12430.50 on the closing basis will further dampen the uptrend for
sure, which may please be noted.
It is into deep short term correction mode. It is doing
whip-saw around its short and medium term moving averages, it was below it for
the last two days, but moved above some of it again today, which is positive
sign, but how long it will remain above the averages has to be seen because
every now and then it is breaking it, but it is well below some of its long term
technical parameters, which is concerning. However it is well above its
pullback threshold point of 14540(figure
can change) therefore as long as it hold this level chances are that it
could move up in coming days. Going up it will face resistance at-14888.80---14998.70---14985---15131.32---15156.30---15176.50---15198.30---15273.15---15336.35---15431.75---15471
levels. Please note that the on-going up move is a pullback rally and it can
fizzle out at any of these points, but if it closes above 14888.80 at least and sustain then chances are that it could
move up further (it did came near it today also but could not cross the mark
and slipped down) and if it moves and sustain above 15198.30 on the closing basis then it could retest its all-time
high of 15431.75 or may go beyond
also, chances of crossing 15198.30 level
looks slim at this point of time. Similarly going
down it can find support at-14753.55---14710---14653---14540---14467.75---14350---14264.10---14222.80---14024.85---13996.11---13981.75---13953.75---13777.50---13596.75---13562.50.
Kindly, note that the short term technical setup still looks weak.
Therefore short term bias is negative as of now, but the long term bias is
still up as of now.
In view of the above observation, it is still into deep short term
correction but well above pullback threshold point of 14540, but for safe trader or otherwise long trade in general
should be avoided till it gives visible indication of correction completion or till
it closes above 14888.80 level,
because in last ten days it came very close to 14888.80 level for 3 times
but could not cross it, in fact slipped down from there. Therefore long trade
can only be tried if it moves and sustain above 14888.80 for some time. It is suggested to avoid buy on decline for
the day but aggressive traders can still try it near 14690 but not below it. I once again caution you that long trade in
deep corrective mode and for pullback gains could be risky propositions and
particularly buying on decline. Since it is still in corrective mode therefore short trade can also be attempted
after reasonable rise or on the price breakdown for taking advantage of the
down move till clarity on correction completion emerges. Short trade should be
tried but with extreme alertness and caution because the long term technical setup
still seems o.k. as of now.
NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down
before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap
up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing
volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t
have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.
TRADING STRATEGY(Suggested)
1. Buy on decline near near14690 but not below it, with a stop
loss 14630. It is for aggressive traders and could be a risky trade.
Or
Buy if it moves and maintain above 14889for some time with a
stop loss of 14830. It could be a risky trade.
2. Sell on the rise near or within the range 14889---14920
with a stop loss of 14950. It could be a risky trade but worth trying in a
corrective market for intraday gain.
Or
Sell if it moves below 14630 and maintain for some time with a stop
loss of 14695. It could be a risky trade
but worth trying for intraday gain in corrective market.
Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not
at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on
the above view.
Kindly note that make
your cost your stop loss in favorable trade
and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE
WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note:
Price stated here are of spot market.
Contact me for
strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.
Thanks
Narendra
Kumar Surana
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
