NIFTY 50 - Technical View for 15-19 June 2020

Outlook

The long term trend is still down. Short term trend is up but it is in corrective mode therefore long trade is not suggested till the under mentioned conditioned are fulfilled. However aggressive trader can try long trade with extreme caution and care as the ongoing up rally is not fundamentally backed therefore chances are that it may end abruptly also and it has shown trailer of it on 12th June 2020. Therefore short trade should also be attempted at suggested levels.

 

Trading Strategy

Detailed View

Further to my last post of 8.6.2020, it moved in a projected range for the first three days of the preceding week and made a high of 10328.50 but did not cross the first sell point of 10385, similarly it did not break the strong support levels of 10046---9970.80 & 9944.40. But on the 4^th day it broke all the three support levels on the closing basis, furthermore it decisively went below all its long term moving averages and lastly and most importantly that it made lower top and bottom on the chart giving an indication that it could go in for deep correction and on the 5^th day it opened with a huge gap down at 9544.95 and made a low of 9544.35 and then recovered sharply and made a high of 9996.05 for the day before ending the day near the high at 9972.90.

It started correcting on the 4th day and today it strongly corrected intra day but closed on a very strong and positive note indicating strength. It is important to mention here that the real corrections are on the closing basis therefore today’s strong up move after intra day huge down slide seems well orchestrated or may be a fake up move, if it is so then it may not last and can fizzle out in 1-2 days because it is making lower top and bottom on the line chart and well below its all long term moving averages on the daily and weekly chart. So it seems that correction is still on and will only complete when it starts making higher top and bottom i.e. it closes above 10116.15 and then on the down move should not break 9902 as of now (the top & bottom figures will change if it makes another lower top & bottom) and if it is in a strong corrective mode then it may not close above 10046.65 level even.

In view of the above observation it seems that the correction is not yet over therefore for safe traders long trade should be avoided till it starts making higher top and bottom and stays above some of its long term moving averages but aggressive trader can try long trade as long as it holds 9970.80 & 9944.40(bear market threshold point) on the closing basis. Moving up it will face stiff resistance from its long term moving averages, tops and bottom at 10041--10116.15—10158.30—10195—10240—10328.50—10360—10395—10460—10490.95—10551.20---10583.65---10600---10640. It will gain strong strength if it moves above 10583.65 and sustain on the closing basis. Since the correction is supposedly on therefore short trade should be attempted on the rise near or within the critical range or on the price breakdown. Moving down it will find good support at 9970.80—9944.40—9889.05—9868.75---9726.25---9685.55---9663.59---9584.50—9544.35. Please note that sustained break below 9944.40 will indicate that it could reasonably correct and sustained break below 9663.59 as of now will confirm that it is definitely in correction mode and fall may accelerate. 

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade.

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

Thanks,

Narendra Kumar Surana

suranank@gmail.com | +91-9831313654 / 8240951127

 

Disclaimer: The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

Note: Price stated here are of spot market.

A TECHNICAL VIEW ON CNX--BANK NIFTY FOR THE WEEK STARTING FROM-- 15.6.2020

CNX--BANK NIFTY

Open-19529.30--High-20747.70--Low-19526.10—Close-20654.55 on 12.6.2020

Support:20530.45/20324/20184.10/20122.25/20010/19852/19728.90/19586/19526.10/19515/19455.55/19358.05/19297.25/19051/19010/18941/18703.45/18252.43/18100/17938/17719/17606/17311.25/17286.40/17248.48/17143/17105.

Resistance:20697.63/20820/20995/21122.10/21348.15/21462.40/21619.55/21670/21807.40/21967/22380/22418/22469/22996.40/23609.40/23822/23923.30/24045/24240.

Critical Points:--20010--20530.45—20697.43--21100.10--21462--21967.

(Bold and underlined figures are most important)

Further to my last post of 8.6.2020, it exhibited huge volatility and gave both side wild swings in the preceding week but closed reasonably well. It is far lagging behind in technical strength in comparison with CNX-Nifty.

On the last day of the week it opened with a huge gap down at 19529.30 and made a low of 19526.10 and then made a high of 20747.70 for the day before ending the day near the high at 20654.55.

It started correcting on the 4thday of the week and today it strongly corrected intraday but closed on a positive note. It is important to mention here that the real corrections are on the closing basis therefore todays strong up move after intraday huge down slide seems well orchestrated or may be a fake up move, if it is so then it may not last and can fizzle out in 1-2 days because it is making lower top and bottom on the line chart and is far-far below its all long term moving averages on the daily and weekly chart. So it seems that correction is still on and will only complete when it starts making higher top and bottom i.e. it closes above 21100.10 and then on the down move should not break 20525.15 as of now (the top & bottom figures will change if it makes another lower top & bottom) and if it is in a strong corrective mode then it may not close above 20724.90 levels even.

In view of the above observation it seems that the correction is not yet over therefore for safe traders long trade should be avoided till it starts making higher top and bottom and stays above all its critical points of  20010---20530.45 & 20697.43 on the closing basis, it is still below one of its critical point. Moving up it will face stiff resistance from its tops and bottom at 20697.43—20820---20995---21122.10---21462---21807.40---21967---22380---22418. It may rise further if it moves above 22418 and sustain on the closing basis. Since the correction is supposedly on therefore short trade should be attempted on the rise near or within the critical range or on the price breakdown. Moving down it will find support at 20530.45---20316---20122.10---20010---19887---19728.90---19526.10---19297.25---19051.95---18941---18880---18287. Please note that as it is already below one of its critical point of 20697.43 so it is a weak sign and sustained break below 20010 will accelerate the down move. 

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade.

TRADING STRATAGY

1. Buy if it maintain above 20697.43 for some time with a stop loss of 20490.It could be a risky trade.

Or

   After it closes above 21100.10 then buy on decline but not below 20697.43 with a stop loss of 20500.

2. Sell on the rise near 21250(S/L-21300), 21570(S/L-21620), 21950(S/L-22100), 22450(S/L-22550)

Or

Sell if it does not move above 20697.43 in first two hours of trade with a stop loss of 20850.

Or

Sell if it maintains below 20530.45 for some time with a stop loss of 20720.

Or

Sell if it maintains below 20010 for some time with a stop loss of above 20120.

Remark: - The long term trend is still down. Short term trend is up but it is in corrective mode therefore long trade is not suggested till the above mentioned conditioned are fulfilled. However aggressive trader can try long trade as suggested above with extreme caution and care as the ongoing up rally is not fundamentally backed therefore chances are that it may end abruptly also and it has shown trailer of it on 12.6.2020. Therefore short trade should also be attempted as suggested above. The short term bias is up.   

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favourable  trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market.

 

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

 Thanks. 

 Narendra Kumar Surana

 E-mail—suranank@gmail.com

 Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

 

A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVG INDEX- 8.6.2020

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVG INDEX-

CLOSED AT 27110.98 ON 5.6.2020.

                                                                           

SUPPORT:26384/26241.42/25980/25800.35/25758.25/25743.46/25440/25372/25208/25031.67/24965.77/24764/24294/24040.58/23655/23531.31/23408/23344/23242/22941.88/22789.63/22638.47/21712.53/21600/21447.85/20893.41/20735/20553/20379/19845/19677.94.

 

RESISTANCE:27297.58/27338.30/23398.68/27517.67/27774.06/27675.20/28090.21/28169.53/28174.97/28376.49/28538.44/28638.97/28701.68/28955.66/29373.62/29568.57.

 

(Underlined & bold figures are very important)

 

Further to my last post of 5.5.2020 it decisively crossed the possible top out point of 24764.77. It has been exhibiting tremendous strength since and moving up relentlessly, this is the strongest bear rally ever noticed in Dow.

 

It is important to mention here that it has retraced more than 80% of the fall from the top of 29568.57 and bottom of 18213.65 and now if it moves above 27297.58 and sustain on the closing basis then it could retest or cross its all time high of 29568.57. But it looks slightly difficult to sustain this level as it opened with a huge gap up today and did not make an effort to fill the gap, please note that gap at critical level could be an exhaustion gap also, therefore if it does not move above 27297.58 in next 5-6 trading session and sustain on the closing basis then correction could set in.     

 

Furthermore, it is imperative to note that the recent robust up move has no connect with the fundamentals and it is  purely technical and liquidity driven rally which may not last because it is the fundamentals only which holds the price line eventually. So there is bright chance of the ongoing rally exhaustion at this point and down slide may begin provided it does not move above 27297.58 and sustain. It is therefore suggested to avoid long trade at this point of time. Short trade can be attempted below 27297.58 with a stop loss of above 27380.   

 

REMARKS: -The long term trend is down. It has been rallying up unexpectedly defying all the fundamentals but now it has reached a make or break point technically and if it does not move above its critical point of 27297.58 and sustain on the closing basis then this rally may exhaust for good. So long trade should be avoided for now. The long term bias is bearish.

 

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favourable  trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

 

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

 

Note: Price stated here is of spot market.

 

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit the trade.

 

 

 

 

 

A BROAD TECHNICAL VIEW ON CNX-NIFTY FOR THE WEEK STARTING FROM---8.6.2020

CNX-NIFTY

 

Open-10091.80--High-10177.80—Low-10040.75—Close-10142.15 on 4.6.2020

 Support: 10137.85/10033/10004/ 9970.80/9944.40/9889.05/9700/9685.55/9600/9580/9475/9390.31/9327.85/9299/9220/9158/9141/9131/9116/9090/9038.90/9000/8967.23/8900/8860/8842.28/8801.14/8672.07/8617/8555

Resistance:-10178.95/10276.20/10333.85/10417.80/10490.95/10551.20/10557.70/10637.15/10670.25/10782.60/10941.20.

Weekly Range:-10177.80---10046---9970.80---9944.40---9706.95.

Most critical point for the year:-10583.65.

(Bold and underlined figures are most important)  

 It almost gave 600 points rise in the preceding week. It did give small correction yesterday but resumed the up momentum again today and closed above some of its long term moving averages also, which is a good sign. You are already aware that it has opened the upside up to 10551.20(see my post for 5.6.2020) and sustain close above this mark will open the upside up to 11270---11536 levels. It is exhibiting tremendous strength on the technical chart and it has also crossed the bear market threshold point of 9944.40 decisively which indicates further up move ahead. But it is important to mention here that the recent price surge is not in sync with the fundamental which is most surprising and does not give enough confidence to the traders in the ongoing up move. But the technical parameters are good, so further rise seems inevitable whether one likes it or not, so ride the rally till it shows visible sign of weakness. Since the price movement has total disconnect with the fundamental and it is a liquidity driven rally therefore sooner or later price has to rationalise because it is the fundamentals which holds the price line eventually. So be careful that this rally can trap the traders unaware at higher levels.  

In view of the above observation short term trend looks strongly up, therefore long trade can be tried on dips or otherwise too but moving up it will face stiff hurdle at 10188---10240---10385---10485---10551---10583.65---10685---10750---10830---10875---10965---11065---11245—270---11536, sustain close above 10583.65 will definitely speak of much strength and can take it higher therefore this is a very significant or threshold point. But as this is a technical and liquidity driven rally and has no connect with the fundamentals so this rally can culminate also at any of the above mentioned points, so be alert, vigilant and cautious in the long trade because the day correction sets in it could be devastating. Similarly moving down it will have strong support at 10046---9970.80 &9944.40, sustained break below 10046 would be an alert sign and sustained break below 9944.40 on the closing basis will indicate that it could go in for deep correction. I suggest that since it is technically strong now therefore do not try to go for instinctive short trade but one should definitely attempt short trade at the critical range or on the price breakdown.   

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position. But short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point. Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade.

 

TRADING STRATAGY

1. Buy on decline near but not below 10046 with a stop loss of 9930.

Or

   Buy if it maintains above 10178 for some time with a stop loss of 10100.

2. Sell on the rise near or within the range of 10385---10485----10583 with a stop loss of 10620. Traders should use self defined short stop losses too at respective points because the short term trend is up. The authentic stop would be 10620 only.

Or

Sell if it does not move above 10178 in first two hours of trade with a stop loss of 10220.

Or

Sell if it maintains below 10029 for some time with a stop loss of above 10080.

Or

Sell if it maintains below 9944.40 for some time with a stop loss of above 10060.

Remark: - The long term trend is still down. The Short term trend is strongly up so long trade can be tried as suggested above but with extreme caution as the ongoing up rally is not fundamentally backed therefore chances are that it may end abruptly also. Therefore short trade should also be attempted as suggested above. The short term bias is up.    

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favourable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market.

 

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

 

A TECHNICAL VIEW ON RELIANCE INDUSTRIES LTD-- 8.6.2020

RELIANCE INDUSTRIES LTD

Open-1595--High-1618--Low-1573.70—Close-1581.70 on 5.6.2020.

Support: 1570/1562/1558/1533/1508/1498.

Resistance:1609/1614.45/1615/1618/1752/1974/2125/2260/2333/2361.

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

Technically it is superbly placed, furthermore it has an Inverse Head & Shoulder formation on the daily chart and if it moves above its neckline which is placed at 1618 and sustain on the closing basis then it will have a huge upside target of 2361. Moving towards the targeted point it can face resistance at 1752---1974---2125---2260---2333 levels.

It looks extremely good for long trade as long as it holds 1562 on the closing basis as of now. So long trade can be tried at current market price of 1582 also with a stop loss of 1558 or try if it gives breakout from the neckline of 1618 with a stop loss of 1595. It would be relatively safe to try long trade after neckline breakout.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favourable  trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market.

 

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

 

 

 

A BROAD TECHNICAL VIEW ON CNX--BANK NIFTY FOR THE WEEK STARTING FROM-- 8.6.2020

CNX--BANK NIFTY

Open-20516.40--High-21198.70--Low-20425.05—Close-21034.50 on 5.6.2020

Support:20995/20820/20530.45/20324/20184.10/20122.25/20010/19852/19728.90/19586/19515/19455.55/19358.05/19051/19010/18941/18703.45/18252.43/18100/17938/17719/17606/17311.25/17286.40/17248.48/17143/17105/16826/16450/16193/16116.25/15879.55/15626/15440/15157/14853.

Resistance:21122.10/21348.15/21462.40/21619.55/21670/21967/22380/22418/22469/22996.40/23609.40/23822/23923.30/24045/24240.

WEEKLY RANGE:--21619.55---20530.45----20010----19632.90.

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

 It gave more than 2300 points rise in the preceding week. It did give small correction yesterday but resumed the up momentum again today. You are already aware that it has opened the upside up to 22418(see my post for 5.6.2020) and sustain close above this mark will open the upside up to 24370 levels. It is exhibiting reasonable strength on the technical chart but a lot less than what CNX-Nifty is showing because it is way below its long term moving averages on the daily & weekly chart now, may be it can catch up with Nifty’s momentum in days to come and move sharply ahead. But it is important to mention here that recent price surge is not in sync with the fundamental which is most surprising and does not give enough confidence to the traders in the ongoing up move. But the technical parameters are good, so further rise cannot be ruled out, so ride the rally till it shows visible sign of weakness. Since the price movement has total disconnect with the fundamental and it is a liquidity driven rally therefore sooner or later price has to rationalise because it is the fundamentals which holds the price line eventually. So be careful that this rally can trap the traders unaware at higher levels. 

In view of the above observation short term trend looks up, therefore long trade can be tried on dips or otherwise too but moving up it will face stiff hurdle at 21620---21967---22418---22690---23640---23930---24230---24365---24761---24960, it has to really toil hard to match  up its momentum with Nifty. But as this is a technical and liquidity driven rally and has no connect with the fundamentals so this rally can culminate also at any of the above mentioned points, so be alert, vigilant and cautious in the long trade because the day correction sets in it could be devastating. Similarly moving down it will have strong support at 20995--- 20530.45---20010, sustained break below 20530.45 would be an alert sign and sustained break below 20010 on the closing basis will indicate that it could go in for deep correction. I suggest that since it is technically good now therefore do not try to go for instinctive short trade but one should definitely attempt short trade at the critical range or on the price breakdown.  

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position. But short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point. Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade.

TRADING STRATAGY

1. Buy on decline near but not below 20530.45 with a stop loss of 20370.

Or

   Buy if it maintains above 21619.55 for some time with a stop loss of 21500.

2. Sell on the rise near or within the range of 22600(S/L-22750)---24500(S/L-24650)---26500(S/L-26600.

Or

Sell if it does not move above 21620 in first two hours of trade with a stop loss of 21700.

Or

Sell if it maintains below 20530.45 for some time with a stop loss of 20650.

Or

Sell if it maintains below 20010 for some time with a stop loss of above 20120.

Remark: - The long term trend is still down. The Short term trend is  up so long trade can be tried as suggested above but with extreme caution as this up rally is not fundamentally backed therefore chances are that it may end  abruptly also. Therefore short trade should also be attempted as suggested above. The short term bias is up.    

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favourable  trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market.

 

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.