DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVG INDEX--A TECHNICAL VIEW---26-9-2015

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVG INDEX

CLOSED AT 16314 ON 25-9-2015.

SUPPORT:- 16016.36 / 15979.95 / 15855 / 15703.79 / 15370.33 / 15340.69.

RESISTANCE:- 16333.78 / 16669.97 / 16933.43 / 17037.76 / 17067.59 / 17262.37.

Dow looks hugely bearish on the technical chart and as of now it seems that it will seek lower levels on a steady basis in coming days, weeks and months but in between short up rally could be there from time to time. Please note that any significant change in price movement can change the direction of the trend, therefore chart has to be viewed on regular basis for correct and timely assessment for the change in direction of the trend. There are some important technical observations which are given here under and the under noted parameters would drive the Dow movement for the coming weeks and months.

A TECHNICAL SNAPSHOT

1.It is running below all its long term moving averages and the range for the same is between 17763-17264(it changes every day) and it is far below this range now. To regain the lost up momentum it has to move above the upper band of the range and sustain. If it moves above the lower band of the range and sustain then it will start showing some strength.

2. Its long term moving average range on the weekly chart is between 16596—15175(it changes every week) and now it is below its upper band of the range which indicate tremendous weakness. If it slips below the lower band and sustain then the fall will accelerate.

3. RSI is showing huge negative divergence on the weekly and monthly chart as of now, which is a bad sign. But it has to be reviewed from time to time and seen in sync with the other technical parameters. If it comes into play then it will create havoc in coming weeks and months, chances of which looks reasonable as of now.

4. It is running below its long term rising trend line drawn from the bottom of 6469.95 it made on 6-3-2009 and connecting the bottom of 10404.50 it made on 4.10.2011. This would at 16740 for the month of October 2015.Since it is running below 6-1/2 years drawn trend line it speaks of great weakness.

5. its last year’s low was 15340.69 and it came very close to it this year and hit a low of 15370.33 on 24.8.2015 but managed to hold last year low. However it still exhibit weakness and in all likelihood last year’s low will be taken out in coming months.

In view of the above the broad range for Dow is between 17763---15175(it will change from time to time) and it is almost at midpoint now and there are critical points within the range, therefore going up it will get stiff resistance from those points at 16600 / 16740 / 16934 / 17270 similarly moving down it will find support at 15979.75 / 15855.12 / 15370 / 15340 break below 15340 can drag it down to much lower levels. In totality the bias is bearish and down move is expected in coming days. Therefore it would be better to avoid long call now but if initiated should be handled with extreme caution and care.

Remark:-The long term trend is still down. Therefore long call should be avoided.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable  trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Note: Price stated here is of spot market.

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit the trade.

CNX-NIFTY—UPDATE FOR THE WEEK STARTING FROM—28-9-15

CNX-NIFTY

Closed  at 7868.50 on 24-9-15.

Support:--7829/7812/ 7759/ 7723 / 7678.50/7667.25/7539.50/7422.

Resistance:- 7890/7907.95/7940—7962/7997/8021.60/8055/8065/ 8091.80.

It had relatively a calm day today considering the settlement day of September-2015 series. It opened flat to negative at 7838.40 and made a low of 7804.10 and thereafter steadily moved up and made a high of 7894.50 before closing the day at 7868.50. Although it did not accelerate the down move after the trend reversal on 22-9-2015 but It is also not showing any major strength either and moving in a short range now. There are some important technical observations which are given here under and the under noted parameters would decide the market movement for the coming week/weeks

TECHNICAL  OBSERVATION

1.Inverse Head & Shoulder pattern is visible on daily bar chart and its neckline is in the range of 8050—60,since it is slopping neckline ,so its count will decrease day by day. But take the said range as valid range and if it moves above this range and sustain then the possible maximum target could be in the range of 8500—8550. This pattern will be negated if it moves below 7660.

2.Distinctly visible Head & shoulder Pattern on the weekly  bar chart and its neckline is in the range of 8040—60.The possible maximum target could be in the range of 6900—6800.(see my earlier post)

3. RSI is showing huge negative divergence on the weekly and monthly chart, which is a bad sign. It has to be reviewed from time to time and seen in sync with the other technical parameters

4.It is below all its long term moving averages and the last being at 8147(it changes every day) for 28-9-2015.So it will only show positive strength if it moves above this mark and sustain.

5.Fresh short term rising trend line support is at  following points(approx) for coming week. Break below this support on given day will give first sign of crack.

    28-9-15—7760 / 29-9-15—7775 / 30-9-15—7796 / 1-10-15—7816.

6. Short term moving average range for 28-9-15 is between 7908—7831.

7.Its recent higher bottom is at 7723.25 made on 23-9-2015.

In view of the above technical observation the broad range for nifty is between 7660---8060 and it is evenly placed now and breakout on either side will decide which way it want to move but in totality the bias is bearish and down move is expected, it will give first crack when the rising trend line is violated and then the recent bottom of 7723.25 is taken out similarly if it moves above 8147(it changes every day) and sustain then it will show strength , but not to forget that the RBI trade policy announcement  is lined up for 29-9-15 and if interest rate cut comes market may react positive for a while, even if it is so it seems that it will be difficult to sustain the expected up move and in all likelihood it is going to give moderate to sharp  down move  after the event. In view of the above it is suggested to keep the trade commitments light till the event is over. The long term trend is still down but it is showing some resilience now ,even then long trader are advised to be extra vigilant and cautious in their trade because they may get trapped at higher level. It is suggested to avoid long trade till more clarity is visible on the chart.

Trading Strategy   

1.Day trader can try long call above 7870 or above 7908 with a stop loss of below 7825 & 7860.It would be slightly safe  to try it above 7908.

2.Short call can be initiated if it moves  below 7812 and sustain with a stop loss of above 7870 or on the rise but below 7940 with a stop loss of above 7980.

 Remark:-The long term trend is still down. In view of RBI’S trade policy announcement trade commitments should be kept light, in fact for safe trader it would be better to stay away from the market till the RBI event is over. However aggressive day trader can initiate trade as suggested above. I would personally avoid long call till it moves above the long term moving average last point and sustain instead I would look for opportunity to initiate short trade now.                                                                                            

Please note that profit should also be booked in trade from time to time at the appropriate points so that you can take advantage of the market swings.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable  trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Note: Price stated here is of spot market.

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit the trade.

CNX--BANK NIFTY-UPDATE FOR THE WEEK STARTING FROM 28-9-15

CNX--BANK NIFTY

Closed  at 17196.65 on 24-9-15.

Support:-- 17174/17100/16969/16759/16670/16484/16192/15762.20.

Resistance:- 17246/17502/17542.90/17569.80/17602/17719/17738.

It opened on a negative note at 17206.10 and made a high of 17283.10 and a low of 17070.55 before closing the day at 17196.65. Despite September-2015 series settlement it had an unusually quiet day today may be because of the ensuing event of RBI’S trade policy announcement which is slated for 29-9-2015. Technically it hangs in balance now and the said RBI’S event outcome will decide further price action, however if rate cut happens it can shoot up for a while but how long will it sustain the rise has to seen. Since the long term trend is down in all likelihood it may slide after the event gets over. In view of this it is suggested to keep your trade commitments light. There are some important technical observations which are given hereunder and the under noted parameters would drive the market movement for the coming week/weeks.

TECHNICAL  OBSERVATION

1.Inverse Head & Shoulder pattern is visible on daily bar chart and its neckline is in the range of 17700--730,since it is rising neckline ,so its count will increase day by day. The said range of neckline is valid up to 9-10-15,so if it moves above this range and sustain then the possible maximum target could be in the range of 19300—19500.

2. RSI is showing huge negative divergence on the weekly and monthly chart, which is a bad sign. It has to be reviewed from time to time and seen in sync with the other technical parameters.

3.It is below all its long term moving averages and the last being at 17565(it changes every day) for 28-9-2015.So it will only show positive strength if it moves above this mark and sustain.

4.Fresh short term rising trend line support is at  following points(approx) for coming week. Break below this support on given day will give first sign of crack.

    28-9-15—16940 / 29-9-15—17025 / 30-9-15—17115 / 1-10-15—17220.

5. Short term moving average range for 28-9-15 is between 17147--16803.

6.Its recent higher bottom on the bar chart is at 16759made on 23-9-2015.

7.It made a lower top on the line chart at 17255.30 on 23-9-2015(bad sign) but has not made lower bottom as yet and the recent bottom is at 17031.15 made on 22-9-2015.

In view of the above technical observation the broad range for Bank Nifty is between 17730---16759 and it is almost evenly placed now and breakout on either side will decide which way it want to move but in totality the bias is bearish and down move is expected, it will give first crack when the rising trend line is violated and then the recent bottom of 17031.15 on the line chart and bottom of 16759 on the bar chart is taken out similarly if it moves above 17565(it changes every day) and sustain then it will show strength and beyond 17730 mark it can show good up movement. I light of RBI’S event traders should be circumspect in their trade position and it is better to avoid aggressive trade now on both sides till the event is over.

Trading Strategy 

1.Long call can be tried above 17260 or above 17311 with a stop loss of below 17 140 & 17240 respectively. It would be slightly safer to try it above 17311.

2.Can buy now also but not below 17147 with a stop loss of below 17030. It could be a risky trade.

3. Since it had made lower top on the line chart Short call can be tried below 17255 with a stop loss of above 17320 and below 17030 for sure with a stop loss of above 17150, aggressive trader can try short call on the rise to around 17565 but not above this  mark with a stop loss of above 17660.

Remark:-The long term trend is still down. In view of RBI’S trade policy announcement trade commitments should be kept light, in fact for safe trader it would be better to stay away from the market till the RBI event is over. However aggressive day trader can initiate trade as suggested above. I would personally avoid long call till it moves above the long term moving average last point and sustain instead I would look for opportunity to initiate short trade for now.

                                                                                          

Please note that profit should also be booked in trade from time to time at the appropriate points so that you can take advantage of the market swings.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable  trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Note: Price stated here is of spot market.

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit the trade.

CNX-NIFTY--A TECHNICAL VIEW---24-9-2015

CNX-NIFTY

Closed at 7845.95 on 23-9-15.

Support:--7840/7829/7812/7795/7787/ 7761/ 7723 / 7678.50/7667.25/7539.50/7422.

Resistance:-7858/7907.95/7940—7962/7997/8021.60/8055/8065/ 8091.80.

As apprehended it almost followed bank nifty movement today, opened with a down gap at 7737.35 and hit a low of 7723.25 thereafter zoomed up and made a high of 7882.90 and closed at 7845.95. Today’s move could be considered as just a bounce back of a sharp fall it witnessed yesterday and this morning and it may not last ,but price movement has to be respected in any case and trade decision has to  be maneuvered  accordingly to protect gains and cut losses early. Now it is having support from lower band of its short term moving average range which is between 7910—7827(it changes every day) for 24-9-2015, from the bottom of 7829, 7812 & 7788 on the line chart. Going up it will face stiff resistance at 7910/7940—7962/7997. Looking at today’s volatility day trader can try both long and short trade depending on the price movement but please keep in mind yesterday’s trend reversal and be extra alert in long trades because the long term trend is still down and it will only show some strength  if it moves above 8151(it changes every day) and sustain.

Trading Strategy   

1.Day trader can try long call above 7860 with a stop loss of below 7800 and can add on position if it moves above 7910 and sustain with a stop loss of below 7860.

2.Short call should only be initiated if it moves  below 7812 and sustain with a stop loss of above 7860, add on short position below 7788 with a stop loss  of above 7820.

 Remark:-The trend is down and today’s   movement was just a sharp bounce back after yesterdays and this morning fall. One should not forget yesterdays trend reversal, furthermore seeing today’s volatility, it is suggested to handle any side trade with extreme caution and  care specially  long trade.

                                                                                                

Please note that profit should also be booked in trade from time to time at the appropriate points so that you can take advantage of the market swings.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable  trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Note: Price stated here is of spot market.

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit the trade.

CNX-BANK NIFTY--A TECHNICAL VIEW---24-9-2015

CNX--BANK NIFTY

Closed  at 17255.30 on 23-9-15.

Support:--17246/17174/16980/16930/16707/16670/16484/16192/15762.20.

Resistance:-17502/17542.90/17569.80/17602/17719/17738/17842/18034.

It opened with a huge down gap at 16783.80 and made a low of 16759 and thereafter sharply moved up and made a high of 17309.70 before closing the day at 17255.30. It went near the bottom of 16739 on the line chart intra -day but closed way above it, furthermore it went below all its short term moving averages during the day but managed to close well above it, so at the end of the day it has shown good strength despite yesterday’s reversal pattern, therefore one has to respect price movement in any case and take decision in their trade accordingly to protect gains and cut losses early.

 Now it is having good support from its short term moving averages which is in the range of 17106—16789(it changes every day) for 24-9-15 and from its recent bottom of 17031.15 on the line chart. So it will show potential weakness only if the said bottom and the short term moving average range is taken out. It is looking OK now but not to forget that the long term trend is still down and this bounce could end up as bull trap also. Please note that it will show good strength if it moves above 17571(it changes every day) and sustain. Looking at today’s volatility day trader can try both long and short trade depending on the price movement but please keep in mind yesterday’s trend reversal and be extra alert in long trades.

Trading Strategy 

1.Long call can be tried above 17310 with a stop loss of below 17200 for a target of 17454 and 17502—570. Or near 17106 with a stop loss of below 17031 but avoid fresh long call below 17106 mark for sure.

2. Short call should be tried below 17030 with a stop loss of above 17150, aggressive trader can try short call on the rise around the range of 17530—17570 with a stop loss of above 17660.

Remark:-The trend is down but today’s move  showed some firmness but not to forget that it had trend reversal yesterday and this bounce could end abruptly also  ,therefore both side trade should be handled  with extreme caution and care particularly long trade.

                                                                                  

Please note that profit should also be booked in trade from time to time at the appropriate points so that you can take advantage of the market swings.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable  trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Note: Price stated here is of spot market.

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit the trade.

TRADING CALLS FOR--23-9-2015

CNX-NIFTY--A TECHNICAL VIEW--23-9-2015

CNX-NIFTY

Closed at 7812 on 22-9-15.

Support:--7787/ / 7761/ 7723 / 7678.50/7667.25/7539.50/7422.

Resistance:-7840/7858/7907.95/7940—7962/7997/8021.60/8055/8065/ 8091.80.

It opened with up gap at 8014.80 and made a high of 8021.60 and thereafter it started giving whip saw around the short term rising trend line support point of 7990 for the day for quite some time and then maintained just below it for some time and in the late afternoon it plunged down sharply and made a low of 7787.75 before closing the day at 7812. It made a classic copy book trend reversal today, therefore it seems that the on- going pull back rally is over for sure. I clearly gave an indication of the recent rally top already in place at 8055 on 18-9-2015 in my post for 21-9-2015.  

 Since it broke its short term rising trend line decisively and also broke all its short term moving averages in one go today and closed below it, therefore there is not a fraction of doubt that the present up rally is technically over and hopefully fresh down journey may begin from here, so in all likelihood it is a sell on the rise market now, however in between short up move could happen but those should be utilized for selling till it gives visible sign of some kind of bottom formation.

It is important to mention here that it has broken all its short term moving averages and recent bottom of 7829.10 on the line chart whereas Bank Nifty is holding on to these parameters and Bank Nifty has huge bearing and influence on the Nifty’s movement, therefore aggressive short trade should be avoided till Bank Nifty fall in line with nifty.

 Since it has given perfect trend reversal today ,therefore it is suggested to avoid long call  tomorrow  for sure  instead try short call below 7812 and below 7787 for sure with a stop loss of above 7850 & 7812 respectively for a target of 7723/ 7678/ 7667/7539. Be alert around 7678—7650 range in your short position.

                                                                                                                  

  

Remark:-The trend is down and today it gave perfect trend reversal, so the on going up move seems to be over , therefore long trade  is ruled out for me till it gives visible sign of some kind of bottom formation. It is clearly sell on the rise market now.

Please note that profit should also be booked in trade from time to time at the appropriate points so that you can take advantage of the market swings.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable  trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Note: Price stated here is of spot market.

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit the trade.

CNX-BANK NIFTY--A TECHNICAL VIEW--23-9-2015

CNX--BANK NIFTY

Closed  at 17031.15 on 22-9-15.

Support:--16930/16707/16670/16484/16192/15762.20.

Resistance:-17174/17246/17502/17569.80/17602/17719/17738/17842/18034.

It opened at 17574.60 above the previous day’s high of 17571.30 and made a high of 17652.35 and a low of 16946.25 before closing the day at 17031.15 below the low of previous day. As anticipated it also filled the gap it created on 18-9-15 in the process and could not sustain above the critical range of 17569--17602 for the week.(see my post for 22-9-15)  It was a classic case of copy book trend reversal today, therefore it seems that the on- going pull back rally  may be over and fresh down move may begin from here.

It has broken its short term rising trend line decisively today but it is still within its short term moving average range which is between 17067—16786(it changes every day) for 23-9-15 and also holding the recent bottom of 16739 on the line chart. Although it was a perfect trend reversal on the bar chart but since it is still holding on to its short term moving averages lower band and bottom on the line chart, therefore next 2 days movement has to be watched to see whether it breaks the average range  and  said bottom 16739 or not  to get the confirmation of trend reversal.

I would therefore suggest to avoid long call tomorrow but those who want to try can try if it sustain above 17070 with a stop loss of below 17015 instead I, would suggest to try short call below 16980 with a stop loss of above 17070 for a target of 16930/16707. Aggressive short position can be created once it breaks 16739 mark.

Remark:-The trend is down and today it gave classic copy book trend reversal, so it seems that the on- going up move may be over but since it is holding its short term moving averages lower band and bottom on the line chart, so aggressive short call should be avoided till moving average lower band and bottom of 16739 is taken out but it is suggested to avoid long call for sure as it has given perfect trend reversal today.

                                                                                    

Please note that profit should also be booked in trade from time to time at the appropriate points so that you can take advantage of the market swings.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable  trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Note: Price stated here is of spot market.

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit the trade.

CNX-BANK NIFTY--A TECHNICAL VIEW--22-9-2015

CNX--BANK NIFTY

Closed  at 17542.90 on 21-9-15.

Support:--17246/17174/17156---17015.75/16983/16879/ 16781.55/16670/16525/16452/16192.

Resistance:-17569.80/17602/17719/17738/17842/18034.

It opened on a huge negative note at 17186.05 but recovered completely and made a high of 17571.30 for the day before closing near the high at 17542.90. Despite opening 200 points down from previous day’s close , it did not make any effort to fill the gap it created that day, so it is possible that it can still make an attempt to fill the gap in next two days and if it does then it can come down to 17015.75 mark which may be noted. Anyway it is showing good strength on the daily chart as of now but it will show real strength if it moves above 17585(it changes every day) and sustain, therefore avoid short call above this mark for sure till it breaks it again.   

It has support from its short term rising trend line at 17350(it changes every day) for 22-9-15 and thereafter from its short term moving averages which is in the range of 17070—16755(it changes every day), so break below 17350 mark tomorrow will indicate that it may correct from here but it will show potential weakness if it breaks below the aforesaid moving average range which is much lower. Therefore for those traders who are still carrying long trades should take decision on their existing position keeping the above point and range in mind to safeguard their gains. However for those who want to initiate fresh long trade can try near 17350 or above 17602 with a stop loss of below 17300 & 17570 respectively. It would be safe to try long call if it sustain above 17602. Although apparently it is not showing any sign of weakness here but since 17569---17602 is a critical range for the week and if it fails to cross it then it may correct sharply from here.

Remark:- The trend is down but the on-going up move is still  going strong and showing no sign of budging down therefore short call should be avoided in general  above 16755 on 22-9-15 but aggressive trader can go contrarian and try short call here, if it does not move above 17585 in first two hours of trade with a stop loss of above 17625. The fresh long call can be tried and existing long position should be handled as suggested above. The bias is on the upside as of now.

                                                                                            

                                                                                       

Please note that profit should also be booked in trade from time to time at the appropriate points so that you can take advantage of the market swings.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable  trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Note: Price stated here is of spot market.

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit the trade.

CNX-NIFTY--A TECHNICAL VIEW---22-9-2015

CNX-NIFTY

Closed at 7977.10 on 21-9-15.

Support:--7961/7940/ 7907/ 7840/ 7761/ 7723 / 7678.50/7667.25/7539.50.

Resistance:-7997/ 8055/ 8065/ 8091.80/ 8195.

It opened gap down at 7911.50 but filled today’s, as well as yesterdays gap during the day and closed near the high of 7987.90 for the day and just 5 points below the yesterdays close. It broke the short term rising trend line intra-day but managed to close above it which indicates some strength in it and it looks O.K on the daily chart as of now. Please also note that it will only show good strength if it moves above 8160(it changes every day) and sustain.

The short term rising trend line support point is at 7990 for 22-9-2015, so if the on- going up move is to continue unabated then it has to trade above this mark tomorrow, if it does not then it may slip down and get into corrective mode but moving down it will be having huge support from its short term moving averages which is in the range of 7925—7820(it changes every day) for 22-9-15. It will show potential weakness only if it breaks 7820(it changes every day) mark and sustain. Therefore for those traders who are still carrying long trades should take decision on their existing position keeping the above point and range in mind. However for those who want to initiate fresh long call, it is suggested that either they can try it if it sustain above 7990 OR above 8055 with a stop loss of below 7940 & 8025 or around the range of 7910---7840 with a stop loss of below 7820.   

                                                                                                                          

Remark:- The trend is down but the on-going up move is still  going strong and showing no sign of budging down therefore short call should be avoided above 7820 on 22-9-15 but aggressive day trader can try sell call tomorrow if it consistently starts trading below 7900 with a stop loss of above 7940.  The fresh long call can be tried and existing long position should be handled as suggested above. The bias is on the upside as of now.

Please note that profit should also be booked in trade from time to time at the appropriate points so that you can take advantage of the market swings.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable  trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Note: Price stated here is of spot market.

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit the trade.

CNX-NIFTY--A TECHNICAL VIEW--21-9-2015

CNX-NIFTY

Closed at 7981.90 on 18-9-15.

Support:--7961/ 7955-7940-7907/ 7840/ 7761/ 7723 / 7678.50/7667.25/7539.50.

Resistance:-8055/ 8065/ 8091.80/ 8195.

  

It opened with a huge up gap today at 7967.45 and steadily moved up and hit a high of 8055 for the day and then started slipping in last hour of trade and made a low of 7955.85 before closing the day at 7981.90.

It is important to mention here that the gap it created today is still there and if it makes an effort to fill this gap on 21-9-2015 then it can come down to 7913 level and if it does and fails to hold this  level then it can go down sharply ,furthermore it dropped 100 points from the days top and closed near the low of the day this movement is slightly disturbing and pointing that the on going rally may be over, although apparently it is not showing weakness on the daily chart as far as price is concerned, it will show potential weakness only if it breaks 7829 & 7788 levels but waiting till then would be too late for the long traders  to exit their trades and if they wait, they will surely end up losing. Since I feel that the top of this on going rally is possibly in the place at 8055 but at least two days market movement has to watched to get confirmation of this, therefore it is suggested for those who are still carrying long position to play safe and book profit now and on the rise too if they get a chance but get alerted below 7940 and exit trade below 7900 and can re- enter trade if it moves above 8055 and sustain with a stop loss of below 8020.

Kindly note that it is having its first technical support at 7940 (it changes every day) from its short term trend line and then from its short term moving averages which is in the range of 7920—7788(it changes every day),so for  those who still want to initiate fresh long trade can base their trade decision on the said parameters. It is needless to mention here that break below 7940 mark will give first sign of crack of the rising trend and then break below 7788 mark will accelerate the down speed, so be watchful. I would personally think of long trade only if it sustains above 8055 instead I would try sell call on the rise but below 8055 with a stop loss of above 8100 or below 7900 and below 7829 & 7788 for sure with proper stop losses. Please also note that it will only show strength if it moves above 8161(it changes every day) and sustain.

  

Remark:-The trend is down and it seems that the on going pull back rally is either completed or  almost on the verge of completion ,therefore it is suggested to book profit on the long trade now and avoid fresh long trade till it moves above 8055 and sustain. Short call can be tried as suggested above.

Please note that profit should also be booked in trade from time to time at the appropriate points so that you can take advantage of the market swings.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable  trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Note: Price stated here is of spot market.

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit the trade.

CNX-BANK NIFTY--A TECHNICAL VIEW--21-9-2015

CNX--BANK NIFTY

Closed  at 17409.15 on 18-9-15.

Support:--17353/17214/17156---17015.75/16879/ 16781.55/16670/16525/16452/16192.

Resistance:-17029/17150/17214/17353/17450/17569.80.

It opened with a huge up gap at 17184.25 and made a high of 17602 and low of 17156.20 and closed the day at 17409.15. Today’s movement showed tremendous strength and intra-day it crossed the strength showing mark of 17593(see my post for 18-9-150) but could not hold above it. For 21-9-2015 the strength showing level is at 17589, therefore if it moves above this mark then avoid short call for sure till it breaks it again and sustain.

It is showing better strength in comparison with nifty but note that the gap it created today is still there and if it makes an effort to fill this gap on 21-9-2015 then it can come down to 17015.75 level , if it does and fails to hold this  level then it can go down sharply. Although it closed 200 points below from the top of the day today but price movement is still ok but support points are at much lower levels first being at 17130(it changes every day) from the short term rising trend line and the other one is from short term moving averages which is in the band of 17020-16613 (it changes every day) and it is well above these levels now. Please note that break below 17130 mark will show first sign of crack on the rising trend and finally it will gather downside momentum when it moves below 16613 and sustain, so if traders wait for aforesaid levels to break to show desired weakness to exit their trades then all their profit will be wiped- out. Therefore it is suggested for traders who are still carrying long position to book profit now and on the rise too if they get a chance because authentic support levels are much lower. Those who want to initiate fresh long trade can try if it moves above 17602 and sustain with a stop loss of below 17570 or base their trade decision on above mentioned support range. In fact I would take a contrarian bet and try sell call on the rise but below 17589 with a stop loss of above 17640.

Remark:-The trend is down but the pull back rally is on and it is difficult to ascertain now whether this rally has completed on near completion but since the support levels are much lower now, therefore profit booking is suggested for sure on the existing long trades and fresh long trade should only be initiated if it moves above 17602 and sustain. Instead short call can be tried as suggested above.

Please note that profit should also be booked in trade from time to time at the appropriate points so that you can take advantage of the market swings.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable  trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Note: Price stated here is of spot market.

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit the trade.

CNX-NIFTY--A TECHNICAL VIEW---18-9-2015

CNX-NIFTY

Closed  at 7899.15 on 16-9-15.

Support:--7895/7881/7840/7746/77237678.50/7667.25/7539.50/7450-422.

Resistance:-7929.10/7940--7962/7997/8065/8092.

 As perceived it moved up (see my post of 14-9-15) and up movement is still on and it is showing no sign of weakness as of now to come down. It has a support from short term rising trend line at 7890 for 18-9-15 and break below this will indicate some weakness but in broader perspective as long as it holds 7829 it is ok for long trades and below this mark it will indicate real weakness and will show potential weakness below 7770(it changes every day), therefore it is suggested to avoid fresh long trade below 7829 and exit long position below 7770 for sure similarly    if it  moves above 7915(it changes every day ) and sustain then this rally could extend to 7940---7972/7997/ 8065/8092/8135 before it get exhausted, chances of which are looking possible as of now. Therefore fresh long call can be initiated above 7915 with a stop loss of below 7880. Please note that it will gain good strength if it moves above 8163(it changes every day) and sustain. Looking at overall technical parameters it is suggest that short call should be avoided for now and can only be tried if it consistently trades below 7828 with a stop loss of above 7860 and add on position below 7770 with a stop loss of above 7800 OR in the range of 8065—8135 with a stop loss of above 8170 for sure.

Remark:-The trend is down but the pull back rally is on and it is showing strength, therefore those who want to ride this rally can try long calls as suggested above but short call should be avoided till the price movement shows potential weakness or try it as suggested above.

Please note that profit should also be booked in trade from time to time at the appropriate points so that you can take advantage of the market swings.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable  trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Note: Price stated here is of spot market.

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit the trade.