CNX-NIFTY
pen—24691.95—High—24731.80---Low---24587.70--Close---24611.10 on 30.9.2025
Support:24598.60/24589.15/24537.60/24502.15/24498.20/24494.45/24473/24462.40/24354.55/24337.50/24226.70/24198.75/24141.80/24099.70/24094.20/24073.90/23938.85/23935.75/23893.70/23873.35/23869.65/23847.45/23816.15/23807.30/23667.20/23664/23644.80/23637.65/23484.15/23537/23426.30/23391.65/23338.70/23263.15/23110.80/23049.95/23047.25/22976.85/22794.70/22786.90/22775.70/22768.40/22676.75/22625.30/22577.40/22546/22525.65/22502/22314.70/22303.80/22281/22165/22124.70/22104.85/21964.60/21875.25/21860.65/21821.05/21777.65/21710.20/21530.20/21448.65/21281.45/21137.20/21021.88/20976.80/20769.50/20291.50/20222.45/19991.85/19839/19333.60.
Resistance:24694.35/24733.40/24753.15/24792.30/24854.80/24857.75/24882.30/24918.65/25001.95/25079.20/25116.25/25136.20/25153.65/25222.40/25234.05/25246.25/24255.30/25285.55/25333.65/25371/25517.05/25548.70/25551.35/25669.35/25871.35/26277.35/26328/26995/27095/27212/27293/27381.
OVERALL VIEW
ON THE DAILY CHART:
--
It opened on a positive note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally, ended the day with a small loss of 23.80 points. Please note that it has been falling for the last 8days in a row, so it may have a relief rally anytime soon. But it is important to mention here that it still has earlier unfilled gaps (gap points on downside are 24164, 22923, 22468 & 22254 ) also on the downside/upside, which is still a huge concern, although stipulated time for filling the gap is over long ago, but it will fill the gap one day for sure. So, be cautious. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, this is not a good sign for a steady market.
The technical setup is extremely weak, it
is already into correction mode for its earlier rise and also for its very
recent rise as it is below its threshold point of 25202.35, it has
threaten its long term uptrend, it is below its short & major long term
rising trend-line and most importantly below its key support range of 24753.15 ----24742.88(some
figure may change daily), so all together it is
showing extreme weakness and please note
that if it does not bounce back above 24753.15 and
sustain on the closing basis in a shortest possible time then downslide may
continue with in between short relief rallies. Moving down further its support
point could be at 24611.10---24563---24494---24462.40(H&S pattern neckline)(some figure
may change) ----24432.70, it
may bounce back from any of these points or range, but break & sustained
close below the range of 24611.10----24563 may trigger fresh fall, break
& sustained close below the range of 24462.40---24432.70 may deepen
the down move further.
Moving down further it’s next immediate and important support point could be at 24370 & 24337.50 it could be a strong bounce back points ,but break & sustained close below these points may witness an accelerated down-move.
Moving down further it will find its most important & critical support in the range of 24049----23893.70----23869.65—23807.30(some figure may change) , it is a very strong bounce back support range and if it holds this range then the chances of resuming the up-move will still be faintly alive, but break & sustained close below 24049 will put the long term uptrend in potential danger, break & sustained close below the range of 23893.70----23869.65—23807.30 may trigger fresh fall and may also end the hope of a continued up-move and then comes its most critical support point of 23644.80 & 23637.65, please note that to keep the hope alive for an up-move in the year 2025 it has to stay above these points on the closing basis, else fall may continue. The long term uptrend is still intact but it is already into correction mode now for its recent & earlier rise.
Moving up the key resistance points could be at 24652----24654----24742.88---24746----24753.15 ----24791---24890---25031----25202.35----25239.36—25260.22----25371----25405----25448.47---25496.48—25517---25552----25670----25761----25778---25863---25996----26277.35(some figures may change daily or at some point of time) It can correct at any of these points and then may resume the up-move again or rally may halt for a while. Please note that if it moves above 24652----24654 and sustain on the closing basis then it will raise the hope for extending the up-move, if it moves above 24753.15 and sustain on the closing basis then it will gain a foothold for moving up further, if it moves above 24791---24890—25031 and sustain on the closing basis then it may get some strength to move-up further, if it moves above25202.35 and sustain on the closing basis then it will get out of recent corrective mode and likely to extend the up-move, if it moves above this range 25239.36—25260.22----25371----25405----25448.47----25496.48 and sustain on the closing basis then it will get out of all corrective mode and if it manage to sustain above 25371 on the closing basis then the chances are that it could retest its all-time high of 26277.35 or may go beyond it also, else it down move may continue. It is in the long term uptrend as of now.
TECHNICAL INDICATORS AND MOVING AVERAGE PLACEMENT ON THE CHART;-
POSITIVE POINTS:-
1. It is in
oversold zone in few indicator, so it may have relief rally at times.
NEGATIVE POINTS:-
1. All the important technical indicators are negative now,
MACD, EV, PS & ADX is in the sell mode and RSI is with negative divergence,
so the down move can extend.
2. It is below all its
short term moving averages on the daily & weekly chart.
3. It is below all its
medium term moving averages on the daily chart and below few on the weekly
chart.
4. It is below few
long terms moving average on the daily chart and the top average is placed at
24654(figure will change daily) for the day.
In view of the
above there
is a possibility that it can swing both ways at time but with a tilt towards downside. Furthermore please note that earlier
vertical rise, unfilled gaps, negative divergence and in the overbought zone on
weekly & monthly chart is still a concern, therefore fall cannot be ruled
out in the coming days. Please keep an eye on the critical resistance &
support points and price action for further directional indication.
TECHNICAL
INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-
WEEKLY CHART: - Few important technical indicators are negative MACD,EV,ADX & VM is in the sell mode and RSI is with huge negative divergence, and it is in the overbought zone, but some indicators are in the buy mode too such as PS & ST therefore it may witness relief rally at times.
MONTHLY CHART:-Few indicators are in buy mode such as PS & ADX, but key indicator such as MACD, EV & ST is in the sell mode, it is in the overbought zone and with huge negative divergence in RSI. Therefore, all together indicators are painting a mixed picture now with strong tilt towards down-side as of now; therefore further fall in the coming months cannot be ruled out.
IT
IS SELL ON RISE MARKET NOW;-
It is still
into deep correction mode for its earlier & recent rise and now below its
key point of 24753.15, therefore as long as it stays below it on the closing basis it will
be sell on the rise market. But long trade can also be tried after reasonable or sharp decline near critical support
points or range with strict stop losses, for intraday gains.
STRENGTH:-
1. It is above its 2nd major long term rising trend line
which is placed at 23176 for the
month of October-2025, it could be
an important & strong support point.
2. It is above its most critical
points of 23637.65 &
23644.80, please note that it must stay above these points to keep up the up
momentum going in the year 2025, else
it will start to drift down.
3. It is above its most critical
second make or break bottom of 23893.70 sustained close above it will keep the hope alive of resuming the
up-move again.
WEAKNESS: -.
1. Volatility and wild swing can
be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market
condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming
days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
2. It is into short & medium
term correction mode for its recent rise as well as for earlier rise also as it
is closed below all its correction threshold points of 25496.48----25448.47----25387.01&24961.04 (figure may
change), sustained close
below these points may drag it down further.
3. The price action was negative today.
4. It is below its most critical point of 25371 and if it sustains below it on the closing basis for a longer
period then the on-going up-move may end for a while and it may start to drift
down and may witness sharp fall.
5. It is below its very recent
correction threshold point of 25202.37; so it in correction mode for its recent
rise and if it sustains below it then it can extend the down move.
6. It is below all its short-term
moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for day
is between 25031----24987----24977----24925---24886--24882(figure will change every day), sustained close below this range can drag
it down further.
7. It
is below it short term pullback threshold point of 24791(figure
may change), if
it closes above it then it will give some hope for extending the up-move.
8. It has made lower bottom on
the line chart.
9. It is below its most critical first make or break bottom of 24753.15 sustained close below it may witness an accelerated fall.
10. It is below its major long term
rising trend drawn from the bottom of 7511
made on 24.3.2020, which is placed
at 24775(figure will change and inch up
every day) for
the day.
11. It is below its recent major
pullback threshold points of 24652(figure may change).
12. It is below its 1st major long term rising
trend-line, which is placed at 24880 for the month of October-2025, is a very weak sign.
TRADING CALL: --
1. Long trade
can be tried on decline near 24575 if it holds point for some
time with a stop loss of 24500 or can buy if it moves above
24655 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 24580 for a possible intraday gain, else
avoid. Please note that long trade in a
corrective market could be a risky affair, but can be tried near critical
support points for intraday gains.
2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 24730---24760
with a stop loss of 24820 or can sell if it remains below 24629
and maintain for some time then with a stop loss of 24740. It could be a risky trade but can be tried
for intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.
Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at
all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the
above view.
Kindly note that make your cost your
stop loss in favorable trade
and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated here are of spot
market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
Email--- suranank@gmail.com