CNX-NIFTY
Open-26061.30--High-26134.70—Low---25794.10---Close-25810.85
on 30.9.2024.
Support:25445.70/25333.65/25285.55/25078.30/24885.15/24854.80/24753.15/24472.80/24141.80/24099.70/24074.20/23893.70/23667.20/23664/23350/23338.20/23110.80/22794.70/22775.70/22526.60.
Resistance: 25847.35/26277.35/26328/26995/27095/27212/27293/27381.
OVERALL, VIEW:
--
It opened with a down gap today and
thereafter had both side moves for some time and then steadily moved down and
finally ended the day with a loss of 368.10 points. Please note that
the gap it created is still there and if makes an effort to fill the gap in the
next 4-5 trading sessions, which is technically possible then it could
come up to 26151.40 but if it fails to fill the gap in the stipulated
time then chances of filling the gap will recede for the time being but it will
surely fill the gap one day, which may please be noted. Last two days move has
weakened the chart setup a bit and it
slipped into the correction mode today as it closed below its correction
threshold points and some other key points of 26043.29----25934----25917.64----25908.15----25821 (figures may change) which is a weak sign.
Furthermore it has also fallen below few of its short term moving averages and
some important technical indicators have also turned weak, therefore if it does
not bounce back above the aforesaid range and sustain on the closing basis in
the shortest possible time, then the fall may extend. However moving down from
here it has two important support range of -----25809----25714.81(figure
may change) and then 25677----25565----25479(figure
may change) and if
it manages to hold the aforesaid range then it could still bounce back else
correction will deepen and finally break and sustained close below the range of
25377.55---25333.65----25285.55(figure will change daily) may accelerate
the down move. It is important to mention here that if it closes above 25908.15
& 25917.64 (figure may change)and sustain on the closing basis then the chances
are that it can extend the up move, but it may get into the good up momentum
track only once it closes above 26043.29(figure may change) and sustain on the
closing basis.
It is important to mention here that it is having see-saw movement quite often with huge volatility, which is not good sign for a steady market, the overbought condition on the weekly and monthly chart is still present but it neutralized on the daily chart a bit but still in overbought territory and most importantly negative divergence is there on the daily & weekly chart is also very concerning, therefore, indication based on few indicators on the daily, weekly & monthly chart is still pointing overbought condition and negative divergence indication which could drag it down in coming days and the process is already on, so keep an eye on for the positive price action for the possible up rally. It is in the long term uptrend as of now.
Moving down from
here it may find good support at 25781------25714.81----25677----25664------25565----25520-----25484-----25479----25377.55----25333.65----25285.55----25113------25098.32----25078.30-----25064.27----24753.15----25521.63-----24099.70-----24074.20----24047.39-----23917----23893.70---(few figures may change
Daily) it can bounce back from any of these points,
It slipped into the correction mode today as it closed below its correction
threshold points and some other key points of 26043.29----25934----25917.64----25908.15----25821 (figures may change) which is a weak sign, sustained close below the range of 25809----25714.81 and
then 25677----25565----25479 (figure
will change daily) will deepen the correction and thereafter close below
each point will weaken it further and most importantly break & sustained
close below 24753.15 may accelerate the down move and finally break
and close below 23917 & 23893.70 may
trigger fresh big down move and will threaten the long term uptrend also and if
sustain below it then the correction could be more painful price-wise and
time-wise both.
It
slipped into the correction mode today therefore it is sell on decline market
now in general till it gets out of the correction mode , but both side trades
can be tried depending on the price action for intraday gains.
NOTE:- IT IS INTO CORRECTION MODE NOW, HOWEVER IF IT COULD
HOLD THE RANGE OF 25809----25714.81---25677 (FIGURES MAY CHANGE) ON THE CLOSING BASIS THEN IT COULD
STILL BOUNCE BACK, ELSE DOWN MOVE MAY CONTINUE. IT IS IN THE LONG TERM UPTREND
NOW.
STRENGTH: -
1. It is in
the long-term uptrend now.
2. It is far-far above its most critical points of 21821.05---21801.45---21777.65---21776.87---21731.40---21727.75 & 21710.20, which is must to keep the up momentum going in the year 2024. Sustained break below this range may witness accelerated fall.
3. Four out of seven important
technical indicators on the daily chart is positive.
4. It still has higher top &
bottom on the line & bar chart.
WEAKNESS: -.
1. Three out of seven important
technical indicators on the daily chart, indicating overbought condition and
few indicators on the weekly chart also indication overbought condition and
negative divergence and finally monthly chart also indicates overbought
condition.
2. Some important technical
indicators are weak and overbought on the daily/weekly and monthly chart and
pointing that it could head down in the coming days/weeks and months.
3. Volatility and wild swing can
be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market
condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming
days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
4. It is into correction mode now
as it closed below some of the correction threshold points of 26043.29----25917.64(figures may change). The other
important correction threshold points are at 25714.81----25098.32-----25064.27----24521.63---24047.39----23659.18---21848.52 (figure may change) and if it sustain
below these points correction will deepen.
5. It is below some of its
short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average
range for today is between 25934---25821----25809----25677----25565----25479 (figure will change every day), sustained close below this range can
accelerate the down move.
6.
The price action was weak today.
TRADING CALL: --
1. Long trade can be tried on
decline near 25550---25500 if it
holds this point for some time with a stop loss of 25450 or can buy if it moves above 25850 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 25790 for possible intraday gains, else
avoid. Please note that long trade in a
corrective market could be a risky bet but can be tried at critical support
point with strict stop loss for intraday gain.
2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 25980--26040 with a stop loss of 26100 or can sell if it moves below 25790 with a stop loss of 25920. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.
Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at
all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the
above view.
Kindly note that make your cost your stop
loss in favorable trade and
then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated here are of spot
market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
Email--- suranank@gmail.com