A TECHNICAL VIEW ON CNX--NIFTY--2-4-2018

CNX-NIFTY

Open-10143.60—High-10158.35---Low—10096.90---Close—10113.70 on 28-3-2018

Support: 10094/10074.80/10049.10/10033.35/9982.75/9955.80/9951.90/9944.50/9919.44--9914/9792.05/9740.10/9709.30/9685.55.

Resistance: 10124.50/10137.85/10139.65/10141.55/10178.95/10207.90/10227.30/10251.85.

For-2-4-2018 the intra-day important support and resistance levels are given here-under:-

Support: 10094/10074.80/10069/10049.10/10033.35/9995/9982.75/9955.80/9951.90/9944.50/9919.44--9914/9903/9792.05/9740.10/9709.30/9685.55.

                                                                                                

Resistance: 10124.50/10137.85/10139.65/10141.55/10147/10162/10178.95/10191.17/10207.90/10227.30/10251.85.

  

Further to my last post of 26.3.2018, the broad observation remains the same. It staged a bounce back and moved up for two days and filled the gap it created on 23.3.2018(it was expected) but failed to cross important hurdles and finally ended the truncated week on a weak note. It is exhibiting high volatility and this may continue, but the trend is down for sure now and it is likely to seek lower levels in coming weeks/months, however in between short or moderate pullback rallies will be there. 

It is weak on the chart as it is making lower tops & bottoms consistently, short term moving averages has given negative crossovers, medium term moving averages are on the verge of giving negative crossover(see my last post), but the only change this week is that it has bounced back within its long term moving averages range which is between 10388—10069(it changes every day) for 2-4-2018 and above its important bottom of 10033, so as long as it holds the lower band of the average i.e.10069 & bottom of 10033 it may move sideways to up for some time . Last but not the least there is huge negative divergence in the RSI on the weekly & monthly chart which indicates further downside is open and it is likely to break 9788 level for sure and may seek further lower levels also in coming weeks/months.  I once again reiterate that (see my earlier post) It may gain some strength only once it moves above it long term moving average range and it may regain the up momentum once it moves above 10552.40 and sustain consistently on the closing basis.

Its broad range for now is between 10388---10292.50---10277---10253---9951.90 and its range for the week starting from 2.4.18 is between 10207.90---9951.90. Moving down it will find critical support point at 10069---10033---9982.75---9951.90---9919.44—9914, sustained break below 10033 will trigger the fall and sustained break below 9951.90 & 9914 will accelerate the fall. Similarly moving up it will face stiff resistance at 10159---198---227.30---253---292---347---388. Since the overall technical setup is weak, so chances of going down is fairly high in coming days off course with relief rallies from time to time.

TRADING STRATAGY

In view of the above observation, the trend is clearly down and the long term uptrend is also threatened therefore it is suggested to adopt sell on the rise strategy now. But since it is above its important bottom of 10033 and within the long term moving average range, so it may move sideways to up for some time before moving down again, therefore short trade can be tried either if it breaks 10069 & 10033 mark and sustain with a stop loss of above 10120 or on the rise and the possible sell point for 2-4-2018 could be at 10191/10243—10253/10277 but not above10277 with a stop loss of above10295. The range for the week is 10207.90---9951.90 and since it is above its important points as mentioned above , so long call can also be attempted near 10069 or 10033but not below it with a stop loss of below10000.  It is important to mention here that if it opens up with a huge up gap then avoid long trade and can try short trade if price permits, similarly if it gaps down then avoid short trade and can try long trade if price permits. The bias is down therefore for safe trader it is suggested to avoid long calls till it shows visible sign of bottoming out.    

Remark: - The long term uptrend is threatened, but since it is above its important bottom of 10033 and within the long term moving average (the lower band is at 10069.99) range, therefore it may provide opportunity for both side trade now depending on the price movement and as suggested above. But since it is in down trend, so long trade could be deceptive therefore if initiated should be handled with extreme caution and alertness. Short call seems a better option at appropriate points. I would prefer to try long call only if it moves above its long term moving average upper band of 10388(for now) and sustain. The bias is hugely bearish as of now.    

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable  trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

Note: Price stated here is of spot market.

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVG INDEX-26-3-2018

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVG INDEX-

CLOSED AT 23533.20 ON 23-3-2018.

                                                                           

SUPPORT:-23509.06/23360.29/23242.75/22219.11/21673.58/21600.34/21471.14/21197.08

RESISTANCE:-24217.76/24534.04/24719.22/24809.35/24876.07/24977.60/25432.40/25449.15

(Figures in bold are important)

It seems that it has topped out at 26616.71 on 26-1-2018 and presently in correction mode and down by more than 3000 points from the top. It looks weak on the technical chart. It is making lower top & bottom, short term moving averages are on the verge of giving negative crossover and RSI is showing huge negative divergence on the daily & weekly chart which indicate that the downside is still open therefore it is likely to drift down further and can seek much lower levels in coming days/weeks & months, however in between relief rallies could be there.  

It is running below its short and medium term moving averages but presently running within its long term moving averages range which is between 24294---23264(it changes every day) for 26-3-2018 and as long as it holds the lower band of its long term moving average range there is a glimmer of hope that it may resume it’s up move again but if it moves below the lower band of the moving average i.e.23264 and sustain then it will be a potential threat to the long term uptrend till it bounces back above it again, finally and most importantly it is running much below its critical point of 24555.68 & 23962.56 and if it stays below it for some time then the down move may deepen, as of now the technical setup and indicators suggest that down move may continue with in between relief rallies. Moving down it may find good support at 23280.64/22320.59/22250.13/21293.36/21219.62/20993.52. It seems relatively difficult now for it to move up smoothly from here as it will face very stiff resistance in the range of 23962.56---24555.68---24876.07----25650 but it may steadily move up if it consistently sustain above 24876.07 on the closing basis. So 24876.07 will be the benchmark point for the year 2018.

In view of the above observation long trade can only be attempted if it move above its long term moving average range and sustain i.e. 24294(it changes every day) for 26-3-18, however aggressive trader can try long trade near its long term moving average lower band i.e. 23264(it changes every day) or on sharp decline but at appropriate levels for a pullback play. The overall bias is on the downside therefore sell on rise is suggested at appropriate points but not above 24294 for now or sell below 23264.  

REMARKS: -The long term up trend is threatened as it is running within its long term moving average range, therefore long trade should only be attempted if it moves above its long term moving average range upper band and sustain for few days. Short trade can be tried as suggested above. The overall technical setup is weak and indicates further downside in coming weeks/months.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable  trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Note: Price stated here is of spot market.

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit the trade.

A TECHNICAL VIEW ON CNX--NIFTY--26-3-2018

CNX-NIFTY

Open-9968.80—High-10027.70---Low—9951.90---Close—9998.05 on 

23-3-2018

Support: 9955.80/9944.50/9919.44/9792.05/9740.10/9709.30/9685.55.

Resistance: 10033.35/10049.10/10074.50/10094/10124.50/10141.55.

For-26-3-2018 the intra-day important support and resistance levels are given here-under:-

Support: - 9955.80/9951.90/9944.50/9919.44/9792.05/9740.10/9709.30/9685.55

                                                                                                  

Resistance:  10027.70/10033.35/10049.10/10070/10105.

Further to my last post of 12.2.2018, as expected it oscillated in the range of 10552.40—10000 till 22-3-2018 but finally as envisaged it broke 10000 level today. It looks extremely weak on the technical chart and expected to move down further from here.

 It opened with a huge down gap today and did not fill the gap during the day, so it may try to fill the gap in next 3-4 trading session, which is technically possible and if it does than it can move up to 10105 otherwise it may not fill it now. But the trend is down for sure and it is looking terribly weak on the technical chart therefore expected to drift downward in coming days, however in between short relief rally could be there. Furthermore it is making lower tops & bottoms consistently, short term moving averages has given negative crossovers, medium term moving averages are on the verge of giving negative crossover, broken long term moving average range which is between 10389---10070(it changes every day) for 26-3-2018 and a potential threat to the long term uptrend if it does not bounce back above it in a short span of time and finally there is huge negative divergence in RSI on the daily and weekly chart which indicates further downside is still open and it is likely to break 9788 level for sure in coming days. Moving down it will find good support at 9955.80/9944.50/9919.44/9792.05/9740.10/9709.30/9685.55 and may make a short bottom in the range of 9760—9685 and may stage a pullback before falling further, but please note that if it sustain below 9685 on the closing basis then it can move down further in this run and can hit 9532—9448 level.

In view of the above observation, the trend is clearly down and the long term uptrend is in potential danger therefore it is suggested to adopt sell on the rise strategy now with proper stop losses or can sell if it sustain below 9951 for the entire week starting from 26.3.18 with a stop loss of above 10000.  Please note that long trade would only be safe to attempt if it moves above its long term moving averages upper band (as mentioned above,it changes every day) and sustain. But aggressive trader can attempt long trade on decline in the range of 9760—9685 with a stop loss of below 9650 for a possible pullback rally from this range. I would like to mention here that pullback rallies are treacherous in nature and can end abruptly also  therefore one should be extremely cautious and careful in long trade for pullback play.

Remark: - The long term uptrend is threatened as it is well below its all long term moving averages and if it sustains below if for some time then the down move may accelerate and it may seek much lower levels in coming days/weeks. It is therefore suggested to avoid long trade completely till it moves above its long term moving average upper band and sustain. The downtrend is on therefore it is suggested to adopt sell on the rise strategy till it gives visible indication of bottoming out. The bias and technical parameters are hugely bearish     

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable  trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

Note: Price stated here is of spot market.

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.